PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

We may just have to dub this the ''rubber ball'' share

[False Profit]

Would love to see this one stay above 150cps but my 'make a buck' gene is telling me to sell up and buy back next week...

Funding an extension to the dog house...

[Dentie]

It looks like normal service is resuming ....

[Dentie]

Looks like Moosie is back buying....note the 25 shares at $1.53

[Minerbarejet]

Would love to see this one stay above 150cps but my 'make a buck' gene is telling me to sell up and buy back next week...

Funding an extension to the dog house...

The dog can wait at our place. My "make a buck gene" says sell anything else but dont sell this one.
Maybe we need some new genes.

[False Profit]

The dog can wait at our place. My "make a buck gene" says sell anything else but dont sell this one.
Maybe we need some new genes.

Hallenstein's are doing two pairs of 'designer' genes for $99. These excellent bargains have still not stopped them losing their place in the NZX50...ahem...

[Minerbarejet]

Hallenstein's are doing two pairs of 'designer' genes for $99. These excellent bargains have still not stopped them losing their place in the NZX50...ahem...

Like all genes I suppose- they have their ups and downs.

[robbo24]

I'm surprised there wasn't any discussion regarding the article Yakman posted about the price effects of index inclusion (i.e. what has just happened with PEB) http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/webdoc...submission.pdf

That being the case, I thought I'd revisit my post the other day comparing what happened with XRO and DIL after the announcement they would be included in the NZX50 with what might happen to PEB.

In short 2 days post announcement DIL and XRO were up about 2% and 8% (net of the broader market movements) respectively. PEB today closed at 153 up from 144 two days ago and therefore net of the broader market is up about 7% since it was announced they would be joining the NZX. All looking good so far right! nicely tucked in at the upper end of that "predicted" range !

The next stage I looked at was 1 week post. DIL was up 4.4% XRO was up 13.4% net of the broader market. Making the assumption that the broader market stays flat and we see a similar further increase in PEB then maybe we will see PEB at about 1.56 next week?

Then finally the same logic would project PEB to be at about 1.65 come early April.

IN general, from my quick looks this all seems relatively consistent with the piece of research posted by Yakman and re-posted above.

Any thoughts?

Good analysis, although DIL and XRO are both essentially SAAS and PEB is biotechnology.

To be 100 honest I think 1.65 is conservative considering nzx50 inclusion does not occur in a vacuum.

The near future may be dotted with some interesting news, I think moosie (who stopped his Tom foolery and pumping for a minute) made a good post about it a month or two ago.

[BlackPeter]

I'm surprised there wasn't any discussion regarding the article Yakman posted about the price effects of index inclusion (i.e. what has just happened with PEB) http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/webdoc...submission.pdf

That being the case, I thought I'd revisit my post the other day comparing what happened with XRO and DIL after the announcement they would be included in the NZX50 with what might happen to PEB.

In short 2 days post announcement DIL and XRO were up about 2% and 8% (net of the broader market movements) respectively. PEB today closed at 153 up from 144 two days ago and therefore net of the broader market is up about 7% since it was announced they would be joining the NZX. All looking good so far right! nicely tucked in at the upper end of that "predicted" range !

The next stage I looked at was 1 week post. DIL was up 4.4% XRO was up 13.4% net of the broader market. Making the assumption that the broader market stays flat and we see a similar further increase in PEB then maybe we will see PEB at about 1.56 next week?

Then finally the same logic would project PEB to be at about 1.65 come early April.

IN general, from my quick looks this all seems relatively consistent with the piece of research posted by Yakman and re-posted above.

Any thoughts?

I guess if we assume that the entry into the NZX50 is the only parameter influencing the PEB share price, and if PEB happens to be the golden example of a statistically average stock, than it should go up by 3% (according to Figure 1 on page 13) between day x and day x+7, with day x being the day it is officially taken into the NZX50. I notice that you are predicting based on XRO a higher increase. After the first couple of weeks the SP will slightly fall back again, but still stay elevated by about 1% (after 20 days).

However - as already your other examples show (XRO, DIL), there is no such thing as an average share. Some will jump much more, others less, some might even drop if hype is replaced by analysis. The only information you can deduct from the provided research paper is that if you observe a statistically relevant sample of shares taken into the NZX50, than they are in average expected to increase for the first week by 3%. Sorry - a sample of one (PEB) is not statistically relevant.

Even without academical research is it however reasonable to assume that the SP will go up in the beginning (unless DD needs another extension or somebody else needs money): more bidders without increase in sellers. What is happening afterwards is everybody's best guess. I could even imagine that the price drops due to better analytical coverage (though this didn't work for XRO either - i.e. more likely not).

Anyway - wouldn't put money on any prediction related to the PEB share price, but looking forward to some more analysis ...

[Bobcat.]

Does this quantify as breaking the 1.50 resistance BC? you were going to be in at this point right? Interested either way.

Closed above 150c which does meet my buying criteria, but whether or not I buy Monday depends on how Equity markets offshore hold up tonight. If PEB drops below 150 again Monday (usually a quiet day for buyers) then I'll probably wait until it breaks through again and buy a parcel in the 152-155 range (i.e. on the way up) with a stop loss around 147c. That's my plan - you did ask.

Confirmed as suggested earlier is the fact that the sp was taken down to the mid 130's primarily for those multi million dollar orders to cross earlier this week.

BC