PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Harvey Specter]

I’ve been sleeping on it Hancock’s, whether they report 1,000 or 20,000 tests in five week’s time, it is just noise, a brush stroke in the big picture of that five year plan and that 4,000 test per week rated lab.

For (potential) high growth companies like this, 90%+ of the value in a DCF calc will be in the terminal value. This years sales are irrelevant in the scheme of things.

Swann way probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that Nader continuous disclosure in my opinion.

[Xerof]

Swann was probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that under continuous disclosure in my opinion.

Personally, I have always assumed he was talking calendar year, but I'll take financial as an off-course substitute....

[SimonHouse]

Don't confuse commercial sales with trials. Tests that are done for prospective clients might include trials which are charged at a lesser commercial rate. Could still be big numbers (eg, several thousand)

[skid]

So even if they are not getting much of an uptake at all,its irrelevant in the grand scheme of things?
I,like Hancock,would not be totally comfortable with that.
I certainly wouldnt write them off,but there certainly could be better outcomes. IMO

[mcdongle]

Was anyone else at the Christchurch Forbar Presentation ?

[Balance]

Was anyone else at the Christchurch Forbar Presentation ?

When was the presentation?

[mcdongle]

It was on the 28th February

[barney]

The "tens of thousands of tests" comment by Chris Swann is a total red hearing - it is certainly not formal guidance as some seem to suggest. I emailed David Darling about it in February and here is what he said;

I can confirm for you that those numbers that are reported in that article are incorrect and were not in fact given to the media in the Chris Swann interview..

I think a few thousand tests at most is realistic for this next report. I have heard David speak publicly about being very confident about the 100m number within 5 years but not sure about the "shape of the growth curve" - ie a straight line or curved, stating slowly and accelerating towards the latter part of the 5 years. I think it is more likely to be the latter.

I tend to agree. I don't think it will be more than a thousand tests, probably less. The half year report mentions " a steady growth of the adoption of cxbladder in all markets." As DD mentioned at one agm, it's like trying to get a big heavy ball rolling.It takes a lot of energy in the initial stages untill some momentum builds. I think we have only just started moving. The real lift will most come after deals with CMS,VA, etc.

I see that Oryzon have signed an agreement with Roche to develop epigenetics based medicine. I wonder if their focus will now be centred around this rather than diagnostics ? They certainly don't appear to have made a lot of progress regarding cxbladder. The diagnostics page on their website seems to have disappeared. I wonder if PEB are looking at other partners for Europe ?

[Bobcat.]

It's not a good sign that there is still only a single NZ DHB on board. Achieving some critical mass here with NZ hospitals would be good news, if and when that happens.

[MAC]

I see that Oryzon have signed an agreement with Roche to develop epigenetics based medicine. I wonder if their focus will now be centred around this rather than diagnostics ? They certainly don't appear to have made a lot of progress regarding cxbladder. The diagnostics page on their website seems to have disappeared. I wonder if PEB are looking at other partners for Europe ?

It's my observation too Barney that a lot of JV's operationally often underperform in house business units. The emphasis and push to sell often doesn’t seem to get the same level of emphasis from the JV partner.

A2 milk and their JV with Mueller Wiseman is a good example. But, just like ATM, PEB will benefit greatly from working with an established partner for exploiting pre-existing relationships, smoozing of officials, and completing local European user programmes required for achieving the requisite European Union CE Mark approval.

Once all that is out of the way, it could well be that a very good outcome for Pacific Edge longer term could be to ultimately mobilise their own salesforce and/or construct a laboratory in Europe, I hope so but am not across the details of the JV contract.