PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

But Miner, us TA people are soulless machines that blindly follow squiggles and don't give FA about FA don't ya know eh?

Yeah , but Moosie, they might as well see what the company has to say for itself, eh, never know, might pick up a good one to hang onto, eh
Above text in Canadian vernacular, eh
Mind you I'd be kinda leery about that, eh
Have a nice day, eh
Miner

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat, you really must keep up.
Please go to the website for Pacificedge and read their announcements. Think you will find that under the hub announcement that Auckland, Waitemata, Counties Manukau and Canterbury are all included as of Feb 10.
And here you are trading the things.
All said in the nicest possible way without rancour or malice
Noah Fence

Then that makes a lot more than four, yes? Mmm, that has to be a good sign. And yes, I really must keep up, although that's not always possible. This thread can easily get away on me when I haven't read it for only a day or two!

Technically, I am seeing support at 111c, and may well buy back into this stock Tuesday. I do like stocks that dip and weave nicely for trading but which also have great upside longer term. At the cost of incurring more brokerage but less risk of not holding come the next positive announcement, I will at these levels now trade half but continue to hold the other half. Yes, more prudent me thinks.

[Minerbarejet]

Then that makes a lot more than four, yes? Mmm, that has to be a good sign. And yes, I really must keep up, although that's not always possible. This thread can easily get away on me when I haven't read it for only a day or two!

Technically, I am seeing support at 111c, and may well buy back into this stock Tuesday. I do like stocks that dip and weave nicely for trading but which also have great upside longer term. At the cost of incurring more brokerage but less risk of not holding come the next positive announcement, I will at these levels now trade half but continue to hold the other half. Yes, more prudent me thinks.

Well now, thats having your cake and eating it. Sounds like you are half convinced this might not be a bad thing to actually hold long term.
By your own thoughts,( risk of not holding come the next announcement), could be heaps, then again, maybe not. Does TA tell you that? Just interested.

[Bobcat.]

TA shows strong resistance at $1.20 and strong support at $1.01.

If this week we see support confirmed higher at $1.11 or perhaps even at last Thursday's low of $1.15 , this could signal a momentum shift and renewal of PEB's upward trend.

The more conservative amongst us will prefer to see it break $1.20 and hold before buying more.

Those less risk averse will buy on a dip rather than wait for $1.20 to be busted.

[MAC]

Further to Sunday’s post;

A significant source of haematuria testing seems to originate from factories and industrial sites where every day many visitors and site staff are routine or random drug tested. A lot of corporates have a concurrent haematuria test performed as a part of their corporate staff health programmes, I’ve worked for companies that do this.

A colleague of mine was tested in just such a way a few years ago at Tiwai Point under this scenario;

Say, Chuck was found to have micro haematuria, was in a high risk category as an ex-smoker, was thus appropriately screened with a Cxbladder(detect) test, and it was found that he did not have bladder cancer. The Cxbladder(detect) test he underwent provided this outcome with a very good overall sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 85%.

But, he’s in a high risk category and perhaps a higher specificity test is required for confirmation or as a follow up in six months, and perhaps again in a year’s time just to be sure. As I understand this seems to be where Cxbladder(triage) comes in, which when launched any day now we should receive test specs, which I anticipate will have a specificity of 96% or higher, and perhaps we will get a better understanding from Pacific Edge for the potential market for this new product.

As I understand, around 2% of those presenting with haematuria or micro haematuria ultimately develop bladder cancer, and if there are 74,690 new cases of bladder cancer in the US each year then this would suggest that there are around 3,700,000 cases of micro haematuria presented .

Sounds like a big number but not all would be screened, only those at risk as judged by whatever criteria GP’s and Urologists may apply. But, equally there are quite a high proportion of ex-smokers and those with other risk factors.

If 10% of those presenting with micro haematuria will fall under such a screening programme it would represent a market of 373,000 patients and potentially perhaps 1 to 3 times as many screening tests per annum in the US. With some good marketing perhaps many of these tests might be Cxbladder(triage).

I’d quite like to help better refine an estimate, all analysis and input welcome, online or offline, with a little effort perhaps we can better figure out how to actually value this thing.

[Xerof]

I see, after reading the weekend posts, we now have conflicting statements from the Chair and the CEO (again). The Chair was reported in late December as saying 'tens of thousands of test in 2014'; the CEO, in a private (admittedly unsubstantiated) email, denies that statement was ever made.

If the Chair was misquoted, or even worse, had not even made the comment at all, then why was no action taken by PEB to correct a material misrepresentation that has remained in the public arena for 4 months now.

Has it allowed three insiders time to sell down, whilst the rest of us await details of a fictional 'tens of thousands of tests'?

It's about time someone came clean isn't it?

[winner69]

For (potential) high growth companies like this, 90%+ of the value in a DCF calc will be in the terminal value. This years sales are irrelevant in the scheme of things.

Swann way probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that Nader continuous disclosure in my opinion.

Don't entirely agree about that 'irrelevant' comment.

Agree that most of the value is in the terminal value (ands that is another story)

However if assumed timing of sales (and cash flows) are delayed then all future cash flows (including TV) are further discounted (to get today's value) by how long the delays are.

My DCF of 104 reduces to 91 if I push all income out 1year from what I assumed. Even getting to the same position in 2020 by adjusting 2014 and 2015 down and then increasing the other years (so 2020 cash flow is the same as previously assumed) the DCF value drops to 95

Same end point in 2020 - different DCF valuations

All rather academic ...seems better to measure market sentiment by following the squiggly line n a chart

[baller18]

I see, after reading the weekend posts, we now have conflicting statements from the Chair and the CEO (again). The Chair was reported in late December as saying 'tens of thousands of test in 2014'; the CEO, in a private (admittedly unsubstantiated) email, denies that statement was ever made.

If the Chair was misquoted, or even worse, had not even made the comment at all, then why was no action taken by PEB to correct a material misrepresentation that has remained in the public arena for 4 months now.

Has it allowed three insiders time to sell down, whilst the rest of us await details of a fictional 'tens of thousands of tests'?

It's about time someone came clean isn't it?

Exactly my thoughts the other day, how come no one cleared it in the media if 'tens of thousands of tests' was never reported by Crhis Swan but the media put it in their themselves?

[Balance]

Hi guys - missed this conversation. Where has this latest info come from (an email?) to say that Swann's ''several tens of thousands of tests'' comment has been challenged by the CEO? Cheers.

OK I see the relevant post:
The "tens of thousands of tests" comment by Chris Swann is a total red hearing - it is certainly not formal guidance as some seem to suggest. I emailed David Darling about it in February and here is what he said;

I can confirm for you that those numbers that are reported in that article are incorrect and were not in fact given to the media in the Chris Swann interview..

I think a few thousand tests at most is realistic for this next report. I have heard David speak publicly about being very confident about the 100m number within 5 years but not sure about the "shape of the growth curve" - ie a straight line or curved, stating slowly and accelerating towards the latter part of the 5 years. I think it is more likely to be the latter.

IF this is true I find this completely unacceptable from PEB. Has anyone else emailed them to get clarification on this?

Maybe why one of the big shareholders has just about sold out?

[Xerof]

Maybe why one of the big shareholders has just about sold out?

maybe, and so how did THEY find out about the misinformation? Are we to be told individually? When is it my turn?