PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[baller18]

So turmeric you have not received an email back from DD? But DD has replied to psychic's email.
Replies to one and not others?

[robbo24]

I stand by my original viewpoint, PDFs or it didn't happen.

If DD knows about the incorrect comments then PEB should have cleared this up. It is material information.

[MAC]

I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT

Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave

Well that is interesting, although I'd like to see the question to the answer, it may be that the ODT do actually have a case to answer in misleading the market.

Pacific Edge have done some market research in the past, as was presented directly by them in 2011. However, it has often been a point of peculiarity for me that they haven’t engaged Edison or a similar investment analyst to work with them on a full valuation work up.

Still, I think they are doing the right thing now, and if this is indeed actually a real email, it is really quite good news as increasingly going forward it will otherwise get harder for analysts to assess.

I've been working in the background over the last couple of weeks to assess the value of Cxbladder(triage), due for launch any day now, and I can honestly say that without direct access to information from Pacific Edge it is something that is quite difficult to do at all with clatity.

[Xerof]

Turm, I think you need to read my initial position on this whole saga again.

I raised the issue of why hasn't there been a retraction of the 'tens of thousands' statement via the NZX, instead of to individuals, after reading Black knats post. Robbo asked for proof from BK, which I then thought was a fair enough point. I have not said anymore since, patiently waiting for a company reply, whilst the machine raged on.

Actually, I thought MAC's QED post was a logical summation of why they hadn't retracted publically, but now even he seems disappointed by the 'Dave' email.

It now seems everyone is where I was on Tuesday morning!

[winner69]

Agreed Turmeric.

To be honest, I don't think that the management and board are up to the task. They've said and done a number of things that (to me) seem quite naive. They seem to be out of their league, and appear to be struggling to make the transition from lab to boardroom. IMHO, this company will only really fly when they get more professional governance and management in place. And that isn't likely to happen until they get bought out. I hope it happens soon, though, as I'm currently nursing quite a bad paper loss on them right now!

New Guy .....now we will get a raft of posts defending these guys. Hancocks is one I can already see smoke coming out his ears.

I have the same doubts as you do and would add in ability to successfully commercialise what they have developed (esp in the US)

I take some comfort in Balance reminding me that the Board acknowledged some of these deficiencies and have beefed up capability with having this US Board

Only my view ....only time will tell how it all turns out

[winner69]

bloody hell this all sounds like another tech company RAK
thanks pychic for posting your reply from dd.

Is that RAK you mention that RAKON company

Charts if you overlay the different timeframes has some similarity

[couta1]

At the end of the day the markets probably already priced in a smaller than anticipated number of tests at around the $1 level,if expectations are exceeded then expect the price to head back toward the $1.50 ish mark so all good aye

[MAC]

Ironically too, in the prospective big picture of what Pacific Edge have told us directly, tens of thousands of tests in 2014 isn’t far off what most analysts seem to be thinking anyway.

Harbour Asset Management have this logarithmic projection indicating around NZ$7.5M in revenues for FY14. At a price point of US$550, this equates to 13,363 sales.

Personally, IMHO I think that this is very much on the high side, but as we know the consensus on this thread is for somewhere between 1,000 and 20,000.
Attachment 5753

[Minerbarejet]

Which raises the obvious question. How many tests "x" have been done to produce sales "y" for a ratio of "z" which should fall as time goes on.

[MAC]

In my view the company has been totally consistent throughout. They do not make near-term revenue predictions for the reasons given in the email to psychic. They have stuck consistently to the "100m in 5 years" target and any time I have heard anyone from the company on the topic they have said they remain very confident with that number. I have done my our valuation on that basis with a curved shaped growth curve building up at the end of the 5 year period. On that basis the share is currently cheap.

The reported statement from the ODT was always out of context and not the sort of thing the company would say. My view, and I appreciate others will disagree, is that investors should have put it to one side in valuing the company and coming to an investment decision.I think most investors will not even have been aware of it. I think most who were aware of it will have put it to one side - perhaps with the exception of some sharetrader readers/posters. I do not mean that last comment as a criticism of anyone here however I have noticed that sometimes a particular piece of information can receive more emphasis that is deserved in the context of a discussion on sharetrader. Had the ODT article not been posted on here and been heavily relied on by one or two influential posters it would have been lost into the background of the internet.

Very well articulated Black Knat.

It is a very complex industry and company to analyse. The whole industry seems to have a “patient confidentiality” or a guarded kind of feel toward information disclosure, and David Darling seems very much of this ilk. It’s no wonder that the market jumps on every skerric of pertinent information discovered.

Hopefully Pacific Edge will now find a balanced analyst that will do a full open valuation work up and not just play compare the US company metrics.

I’m hopeful too for quarterly reporting, if no one else raises this at the AGM I think I might.