PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[winner69]

how on earth do they get a logarithmic revenue projection from a standard (logistic or sigmoid) adoption curve?

I'd prefer to see more of a S-curve than Harbours almost straight line

And as you say a series of S-curves ......... PEB > cxbladder

[MAC]

I understand that Edison has been retained and will be covering the company from around mid-year with the assistance of London based analysts with expertise in bio-tech.

Pleased to hear that, I've been quite content with Edison's work on MEL and CRP to date.

[barney]

Do people really make a decision to invest in a company based on a one liner in a newspaper interview ? Having been to the last three or four annual meetings, I can say that it was stated clearly that they did not know what the market penetration curve would look like in getting to the $100m in revenue. DD also makes the same statement in the interview with Andrew Paterson back in October last year.

[Minerbarejet]

Pleased to hear that, I've been quite content with Edison's work on MEL and CRP to date.

one thousand pardons if wrong but I thought Edison covered Pacific Edge back a year or so ago. Havent seen anything since on their newsletters. Also I believe they are paid to do analysis by the company involved which may have a tendency for a bit of bias one would think.

[MAC]

one thousand pardons if wrong but I thought Edison covered Pacific Edge back a year or so ago. Havent seen anything since on their newsletters. Also I believe they are paid to do analysis by the company involved which may have a tendency for a bit of bias one would think.

That's a fair concern Miner, but I think Edison's independent reputation and prosperity is worth much more to them than what they would ever take from Pacific Edge, they cover hundreds if not thousands of companies worldwide.

I've been reading their analysis for several years, my feel is that they are a lot more independent than the local brokers who tweak valuations in their own interests and rebadge them as "price targets".

It's a free login if anyone is interested: http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/

[skid]

Do people really make a decision to invest in a company based on a one liner in a newspaper interview ? Having been to the last three or four annual meetings, I can say that it was stated clearly that they did not know what the market penetration curve would look like in getting to the $100m in revenue. DD also makes the same statement in the interview with Andrew Paterson back in October last year.

Then with all due respect,It sounds like they are saying ''we dont know how we are going to get there-but this is where we want to be''

[MAC]

I think the best bet for anyone on the sidelines right now is to take a wait and see approach. There is so much convaluted speculation around the sales report that no one (not even long termers like MAC or Hancock with their excellent research skills) know what number is going to pop up in that report. As such, as always, keep your capital safe from the sharks and play the announcements accordingly (and they said PEB would never be a traders stock again...!).

Well if you would like a view, it hasn’t changed. Anywhere between 1,000 and 5,000 thousand sales would be entirely satisfactory.

There should be some roll over from the 700 patient US user programmes, some independent sales facilitated via the provider networks Pacific Edge already have, FedMed, ACPN and Stratose, and a few I hope from the early stage marketing work carried out to date with the LUG’s.

Although, I do think that most of the new sales staff hired from October last year through March this year won’t yet be fully productive, nor should we expect them to be as new employee’s, they need to become familiar with Pacific Edge, the very complex market, the technology and they most probably don’t have medical or clinical backgrounds. My anticipation is that most of them are still sitting in classes at the back the lab. I’m expecting more of them though at HY15 reporting in November.

In the context of that 260,000 test per annum rated US lab:

1,000 to 5,000 sales at FY14:

Should see a return to fundamental valuation, $1.70 base case. Probably higher because traders like to do things to extreme’s.

5,000 to 20,000 sales at FY14:

Same as above, an early stage result anywhere in this range really has virtually no influence on valuations.

[baller18]

I definitely think 1000 shouldn't be a hard target. Remember the 1st commercial saleS which went through right after the national providers were signed up.

Impossible to speculate what sales are at this stage. But if saleS went through the day after the first national provider was signed up definitely shines a bit of light...


Maybe it was only A sale, but the media probably got it wrong again with the S eh



So its not all doom and gloom as many people thinks.

[baller18]

Since everyone is so into how many sales and etc, etc... At least try and workout what sales may be, even it may be way off!

Here it goes,

First commercial sales went through the day after the first national provider was signed up.
If it was not a sale, I am suspecting it was a group of sales from user groups or whatever, it definitely does not seem it was from one patient as it was saleS. Take the low park figure say 5 sales, and let us assume 5 sales per week.

This is all speculation folks, but lets says 5 sales a week from one national provider, gives us 15 a week, 60 a month, 360 for 6 months... Not including sales from nz or what so ever, I would say 500 sales should be easily meet.

But once again, who knows....

[Snow Leopard]

Hopefully the financials in the preliminary this year will not be the minimalist offerings of prior years and we will not have to wait a further month for a some detail.

Whether they provide sufficient useful information to refine (or even start) a decent fundamental model is another matter.

Then of course there will be the accompanying commentary and what we can extract from that.

Until then we just have the price chart and this thread to watch.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger