PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Copper]

I've just read all today's posts and no one seems to feel the share price may drop below $1..Monday may be an interesting day?The number of tests won't have a short term bearing on the priceIMHO.The share price is still looking vulnerable.

[couta1]

...and sparky the clown was Brighton Early (according to earlier posts on this topic).

Served.

But only two of you have one thing in common that is both yourself and Sparky the clown are heavily into Summerset, now hold on there is a pattern here Bright and early in the morning, NewGuy as in Bright and fresh and Summer set as in Bright Summer, okay no more wine tonight couta

[Copper]

why would it drop below a $1 ?... it found plenty of support there not so long ago and nothing has changed

Just my thoughts.When it was $1.20 or $1.30 a pull back to a buck on those bad days on the Nasdaq created a panic .We then saw a quick reaction upwards and a few posters made a quick 20 cents. Good on em.The price however has drifted to $1.05 or so and I feel if there are weak markets overseas there won't be that group of buyers at a buck that there were the other day. See my earlier post a day or so back.The fact that all today's posts (except Balance.Sorry Balance did not see your post earlier) are all centred on tests or who is who.This has nothing to do with the share price short term.As I said last night and Balance alludes to the same scenario that the price could drop dramatically before it starts it's onward march.When people doubt the management and no one has a clue about how they are getting on then that only adds to the instability.Thats my basis for comment.May prove right or wrong .cheers

[couta1]

Don't worry Copper your be amazed how quickly those lab rats will appear if it goes back to a dollar,lab rats remain well hidden until the right opportunity arises

[Copper]

Don't worry Copper your be amazed how quickly those lab rats will appear if it goes back to a dollar,lab rats remain well hidden until the right opportunity arises

Good on you Couta....I am breeding a lab cat to protect the patch.Your rats may be hidden ,but it's when they finally give up counting tests and decide whether New Guy is a reincarnation of whatever that will prove whether they have the right opportunity to pay a buck or gently fade away to an ever decreasing price level...."..I was always of the opinion "never assume anything".I still feel that on a bad day a dollar will just be a price not a bottom......

[Minerbarejet]

They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.

Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.

Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.

Attachment 4819

Hope blakecb doesnt mind this being reposted, seems appropriate a few months down the track.
And lo, behold at year 2014 what do we see but "several tens of thousands" being the forecast long before Mr Swann was interviewed by ODT.
My guess is that Mr Swann was actually asked if things were on track to which he confidently replied in the affirmative and ODT went to the website to see how many were involved.

[Minerbarejet]

I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).

Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.

Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.

Attachment 4387

Lets revisit this now we are a year down the track. Hope JTH wont mind but someone did ask about intrinsic values
Note this is for cxbladder only and USA only.
N.B. The number for 2013 is .5% of MP not 1%

[Harvey Specter]

But only two of you have one thing in common that is both yourself and Sparky the clown are heavily into Summerset

If I remember Sparky had over $1m in RYM and always preferred the best of breed (I forget the actual buffett'ism but the reason Buffett invests in coke, not Pepsi).

[couta1]

If I remember Sparky had over $1m in RYM and always preferred the best of breed (I forget the actual buffett'ism but the reason Buffett invests in coke, not Pepsi).

HS he had heaps in Summerset as well,he felt Sum would be a billion dollar company by the end of this year,not to mention heaps in Peb and Dil at a sub $4 purchase price

[robbo24]

HS he had heaps in Summerset as well,he felt Sum would be a billion dollar company by the end of this year,not to mention heaps in Peb and Dil at a sub $4 purchase price

Sparky also said peb at 2.50 by years end