PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Harvey Specter]

I'm Expecting sales of around 200 tests, I'm not to concerned about this result. This is a marathon effort, not a hundred meter dash.

I hope to see a lot more than 200 tests undertaken. If they only received money for 200, I am fine with that.

[Dentie]

I've often wondered how many posters have actually run a business on any level, let alone a publically listed company. There is a big difference from watching you tube video's and online seminars, reading books etc (ie - learning the theory) than actually living the experience. A BIG difference. And we all know theory "outcome" is different from practical "outcome".

[fiasco]

Despite what happens, this is really exciting PEB are doing so well in my opinion.

Looking forward to hear how well CRC is progressing, and also their other proposed products in development i.e. gastric and endometrial.

[MAC]

I think you may be at one end of the spectrum and Harbour Asset Management at the other, but someone will be correct, time will tell.

Although, Pacific Edge have told us a couple of times now that they expect to break even this year, circa 15,000 to 20,000 tests required to do so, probably at HY15 in November IMO maybe FY15 in March.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-100m-forecast

Attachment 5864

[Minerbarejet]

I'd like to see some of these yankee investors start jumping in and getting some positions.

I'm an unashamed positive "bull" on PEB - have been for years, love what they are doing, have no intention of selling and will happily wait for their eventual day in the sun.

My gut tells me they are currently undervalued but am unsure whether the current SP is based on the well publicised $100m in 5 years - discounted back to NPV, or solely on what people see it as at today.

Based on the wild fluctuations and consistent selling (even with positive news announcements), it appears a lot also are unsure of the "correct" value. Someone's going to be wrong.

The way it's been going an announcement of CMS signing will drive the share down to 90c and a pathetic result will send it up to 1.50. Every time you turn around there is another load at 1.00 and by the looks of it 1.10 is going be a bit tough or it was , its disappeared off my depth table.

[Whipmoney]

The way it's been going an announcement of CMS signing will drive the share down to 90c and a pathetic result will send it up to 1.50. Every time you turn around there is another load at 1.00 and by the looks of it 1.10 is going be a bit tough or it was , its disappeared off my depth table.

I doubt it, but then again when you look back the market was completely irrational when the SP jumped from 70c to $1.60c back in October. Whilst it was great news and confirmation that the commercialisation process was well underway, it certainly didn't merit a 128%+ increase in market cap.

I think what we're seeing now is a retraction to normally (i.e. rationality kicking in) and the market (or at least traders) is now more aware that the stock was severely over-valued on hype and that these sorts of announcements shouldn't warrant significant increases to the market cap.


That being said, a positive Sales result on Thursday should hopefully a reasonable uptick however I don't think it will be in the magnitude of the previous spikes. Possibly $1.10 to $1.20 on good news and there will likely be a serious contraction if the news is poor (<200 sales).

[Meister]

I concur absolutely; however, I’m expecting much better traction (urologist uptake) than that (as posted previously). Because I have a genuine expectation they have built on the ground work done before CLIA registration.

I know you already have a ton of stock Hancocks but with your great expectations for the company have you been taking advantage of these lower than before prices? If not, any plans to buy more on a positive announcement or do you have plenty? haha

[MAC]

I'm quite comfortable with Hancock's assessment too, although 1,000 to 5,000 would be entirely a satisfactory range IMHO. But then, I don't disingenuously mis-quote folk like some do.

To estimate the number of tests EOY (31^st March), I used existing documentation and published commentary from Pacific Edge Limited; and have given a lot of credit (possibly too much) for the ground work with the LUG’s (large urology practices) and AUA exhibitions done prior to the lab receiving CLIA registration in July 2013. Although, I do acknowledge there could be a hysteresis drag or lag in effect.

Calculation (maximum probable number 20,000) is based on adding urologists in the world’s largest bio-medical market each month from a start point in July of 250 (a couple of LUG’s); and a linear ramp up to a point at the end of March 2014, where just 3.5% of all American registered urologists are performing an average of ~5 tests per work week; or, only 1.0% of the total estimated test market (using Pacific Edge Limited figures of 1.825 Million).

Repeating my previous posts: (changed slightly for emphasis)

I’m hoping we have actually signed > 2 LUG’s now; I’m expecting > 5000 tests but really hoping for 16,000 – 20,000. (If it is < 5,000 I would be disappointed.)

1,000 - 2,000 is only mediocre.
2,000 - 5,000 is acceptable (but disappointing).
5,000 – >10,000 is quite Orsome.
16,000 – 20,000 is just bloody marvellous.

My estimate of test numbers is not a reflection on Pacific Edge Limited or the product Cxbladder; I’m a staunch believer in both. This is an issue that I will monitor closely as the uptake rate is the most important factor in the success of Cxbladder, and the 228,200 tests - $US100 Million target of which we are at 31^st March, 8 months (13%) into a 60 month program to achieve.

Note: 228,200 (Capital Raising 2011) tests is 4,370 / per week; or, 874 per week-day; or, 110 per hour; or, 1.8 per minute !!!!

Why such aggressive monitoring? Because, if you recall, the agreement with Oryzon Genomics was signed in May 2011 and the text ‘and soon to be Spain & Portugal’ has been published 2 or 3 times each year since. Meaning, the information may be overly optimistic; OR, enthusiastic; OR, the time-line model flawed; OR, it may show that innovative technology in a ground breaking arena is very very difficult to model.

Anyway, exciting time and looking forward to the report in a couple of weeks.

[Xerof]

hancocks, what do you make of the CAP registration? is it a prerequisite for CMS sign-up?

Black Knat, from my research of the register, we have seen one new entrant into top 50 in the past few weeks (with what I would call a 'knowledgeable' connection to the company) and Salt topping up to be now over the 5%. The #1 holding, which includes Salt, as well as most other institutions, has been where the selling in general has been coming from. To me this seems to be a re-balancing exercise, which has been on-going for months within that group, although we know Hujlich and Masfen interests have declared sales. This is not unexpected given their position as seed capitalists, well in the money, and not 'attached' to any investment.

The #1 holding has been relatively stable, so someone in that holding is also churning, at the expense of retail holders, who fret constantly about the perceived news vacuum, and get pushed into selling - a great example was the push of stops to 95c last week. Note carefully who took up that large parcel at 95c.

Stay calm and wait for Thursday's progress report on the multi-year journey.

[Whipmoney]

We running out of 'big' sellers who are intent on exiting?

That would be great if it turns out to be a good result. The ascent will be like a hot knife through butter.