PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[blackcap]

What capital (isation) would you be prepared to pay now, for an enterprise promising (with no track record of delivering promised sales) $100m in gross revenues in 5 years time?

I was being generous Bobcat but thanks for improving my version. Under my scenario I would be prepared to pay less than $238m.

[Beagle]

What capital (isation) would you be prepared to pay now, for an enterprise promising (with no track record of delivering promised sales) $100m in gross revenues in 5 years time?

Exactly... and what are the odds that there will be at the very least one, perhaps more capital raisings to help to try and meet that sales objective ?
The question I asked myself when I sold is this, is there a better time to take a stake in this company ? i.e. when its provided some reasonable evidence of commercial progress, perhaps contemporaneously with a future capital raising ?
I know its a very small sample size of a few healthcare professionals I've dealt with and its difficult to see the big picture / helicopter view when you're stuck at the coalface but nonetheless I'd like to see more evidence of commercial traction before my perception of the risk-reward situation fits my investment criteria a little more comfortably.

[NZSilver]

I am confused about this five years time

Is it the same five years time as a year or so ago .......or a different five years time

Potentially its still five years time in five years time, or four years time, meaning from now it could be four years time, five years time, nine years time or even ten years time, or there is never a time....

[MAC]

We may consider also that at present we all talk about a 10% market share and perhaps we may all soon change our vernacular as this represents a percentage of annual US cystoscopies. It arises from the Pacific Edge market analysis performed in 2011.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/143330.pdf

Edison have just advised us that Pacific Edge “is also preparing to launch line extension Cxbladdertriage in Q314 as an additional tool for urologists. The market opportunity for Cxbladderdetect in the US alone is greater than NZ$600m.”

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....t/pacific-edge

This suggests that this NZ$600M opportunity is a subset of the ‘bladder cancer urine test only market’ as determined by their UK and US based analysts. The Cxbladder(triage) would be an additional subset.

If hypothetically Pacific Edge as the provider with the disruptive technology and with the best clinically performing bladder cancer urine test on the market ultimately achieves a 25% share of that NZ$600M subset, then that represents NZ$150M in revenues. Add to that the revenues of Cxbladder(triage) and Cxbladder(predict).

Although some might argue that a best in breed product could achieve a 50%+ percentage, and take a dominent market leader position, who knows.

The Edison report will certainly be an interesting read later in the year.

[Schrodinger]

Not at all Griffin, a company that goes commercial and aim’s to achieve US$100M in gross revenues in five year’s time is a company will enormous financial potential and significantly more than most.

Along with all the IP, the patents, the operational laboratories and the on the ground sales force, that potential and associated forward revenue stream has a high value, and PEB is very much undervalued at this point in time.

Thats a rediculous assetion. Maybe if it was a US company I would agree, but I think this is wishful thinking at best.

[Tsuba]

blatant ramping. Give it a break, mate.

What about all your sadsack mates constantly knocking it.

[Minerbarejet]

In response to the five year questions: I think this has been pointed out on several occasions that it is first full five years of commercial trading which started April 1 2014 and will end 31 March 2019.
At this point if they only have 99 million per annum the company will be deemed a complete failure, everyone will get laid off and the directors will get a severe tongue lashing, labs will close, relationships will end, years of patient research and development will be down the dunny. This will be followed by flagellation and a period of penance by all concerned on Campbell Island in midwinter (NZ Time)
Really, they have only just begun and you lot have them written off already.

[Tsuba]

Really, they have only just begun and you lot have them written off already.

A common trait of no life sadsacks Miner.

[Schrodinger]

In response to the five year questions: I think this has been pointed out on several occasions that it is first full five years of commercial trading which started April 1 2014 and will end 31 March 2019.
At this point if they only have 149 million per annum the company will be deemed a complete failure, everyone will get laid off and the directors will get a severe tongue lashing, labs will close, relationships will end, years of patient research and development will be down the dunny. This will be followed by flagellation and a period of penance by all concerned on Campbell Island in midwinter (NZ Time)
Really, they have only just begun and you lot have them written off already.

It didnt start on 1 April 2014. I think you will find they talked about $100M beginning mid 2013 with their first sales guys running around and said it starts mid 2013 not mid 2014.

[Minerbarejet]

It didnt start on 1 April 2014. I think you will find they talked about $100M beginning mid 2013 with their first sales guys running around and said it starts mid 2013 not mid 2014.

PEB's first FULL financial year of commercial trading runs from April 1 2014 to March 31 2015. If they started mid 2013 then it is not a full year and is not included in the estimated projection. Its a long way off anyway whichever way you want to look at it, a few months and a few million dollars isnt going to make a lot of difference.