PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Balance]

Do they provide much in the way of rationale behind this or their revenue forecasts Balance?

It's an initiating research report by Forbar so they are 'starting afresh' so to speak.

It is really a question for PEB and Chris Swann to answer.

Especially when Mr Swann sold a heap of shares ($550,000) worth and Mr Darling too after making that very bullish comments.

[winner69]

It's an initiating research report by Forbar so they are 'starting afresh' so to speak.

It is really a question for PEB and Chris Swann to answer.

Especially when Mr Swann sold a heap of shares ($550,000) worth and Mr Darling too after making that very bullish comments.

Balance - would that sale of Swanns mean he has got all his investment in PEB back?

[Harvey Specter]

I see Forbar is forecasting around 5,000 tests in 2015.

Mr Chris Swann better has a good answer for his comment about 'tens of thousands of tests' in 2014 at the AGM.

Havent they (silently) rejected that statement was ever made to the ODT. Or has he made it again?

[psychic]

Yup sure. Don't want to drag all that up again. It's been done to death.

I am more interested in just how they forecast clinical uptake and their arguments behind this. Do they present anything that we have not discussed on this thread that might give us insight?

Or is this all just best guess also?

Thanks

[Balance]

Yup sure. Don't want to drag all that up again. It's been done to death.

I am more interested in just how they forecast clinical uptake and their arguments behind this. Do they present anything that we have not discussed on this thread that might give us insight?

Or is this all just best guess also?

Thanks

Now is the time to question Mr Chris Swann and PEB, as Forbar has issued the Report only after PEB has vetted it for reasonableness.

There has been no official explanation or retraction from PEB and for a company which relies a great deal on market credibility, that is smply not good enough.

A complaint to the FMA and NZX is in the offing if PEB and Mr Swann do not front up with a reasonable explanation at the AGM.

[Balance]

Balance - would that sale of Swanns mean he has got all his investment in PEB back?

Like Masfen, more than his original investment back.

Good on them, I say - except in the case of Mr Swann, he owes all those who bought PEB on the back of his bullish comments an explanation.

[MAC]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/3...ulative-broker

Thanks Barney,

There is a fair and reasonable takeaway to be had;

Forsyth Barr I think are reluctant to go to full valuation straight away based on PEB announced goals, and have instead elected to provide a very conservative initiating report with a $1.10 valuation based on PEB being two years late, two years within a five year plan is really quite conservative.

It does though provide a lot of room for positive upside ‘suprises’ if PEB do track on time or don’t track as far behind as FB have set as an initiating basis. It will be interesting to see FB's valuation in 12 months from now.

A fair warning on risk for their lay cliental too I think, if you were such considering buying PEB rather than TEL because of the high upside then the relative risks do need to be clear. It’s about risk/reward positions after all.

[Balance]

Thanks Barney,

There is a fair and reasonable takeaway to be had;

Forsyth Barr I think are reluctant to go to full valuation straight away based on PEB announced goals, and have instead elected to provide a very conservative initiating report with a $1.10 valuation based on PEB being two years late, two years within a five year plan is really quite conservative.

It does though provide a lot of room for positive upside ‘suprises’ if PEB do track on time or don’t track as far behind as FB have set as an initiating basis. It will be interesting to see FB's valuation in 12 months from now.

A fair warning on risk for their lay cliental too I think, if you were such considering buying PEB rather than TEL because of the high upside then the relative risks do need to be clear. It’s about risk/reward positions after all.

Forbar's actual valuation is 96c.

Price target is however $1.10, based upon sentiment getting positive as the year progresses. That is, they expect investors will mark the stock up as numbers firm.

At this stage, I would say investors would pay between 72c to 77c to be in the stock until the AGM - ie. 20% to 25% discount to Forbar's valuation.

What PEB says at the AGM and how they answer some questions will be interesting. It is now a NZX50 company and the institutional shareholders are going to be more exacting with their queries.

[Beagle]

I had my cystoscopy this morning and all good and the Urologist said she could see clear signs of the old infection despite this occurring on 1 June, 2 months ago that lead to the bleeding.
Cytology was also good, as were blood tests, renal ultrasound, bowel screening test and 2 x prostate checks. No further sign of haematuria has occurred since 1 June so its now crystal clear it was just a bad bladder infection and I'm all good In the circumstances as its clear what the cause of the original haematuria was there is no point taking a CX bladder test.

I did have an interesting discussion with the Urologist about CX Bladder that might interest you guys.
After talking with a number of medical professionals about this process it was a relief to finally talk to someone who had an in-depth understanding of the benefits of it and it helped break the ice and keep my mind off what is a relatively unpleasant procedure, (cystoscopy).
My Urologist was involved in the original 100 person trial done by the Waitemata DHB and was very impressed with the CX Bladder test and its results and she added that they were very pleasant people to work with.
She went on to explain that its an issue of bulk funding. It costs them about $1,000 to do a cystoscopy but their costs don't go down if they also order up a CX Bladder test and at present from what she told me it isn't funded by the Government.

She went on to explain that whilst my procedure showed clear signs of the original cause of the haematuria if they had any doubts they would send me for a CT scan as the next procedure.
I asked her whether she thought it would take off in N.Z. ? Not unless its publically funded but she thought the prospects in the U.S. were better but results would take time to eventuate.

How much time and does that make the company worth its market capitalisation today...who would know ?
1.4 million views on this thread and over 10,000 posts says one thing to me...plenty of people looking for answers.
My closing thoughts from the coal face are this. The medical field is very, very slow to change. My Urologist told me a cystoscopy is the GOLD standard and that won't change anytime soon.
She went on to say if the day comes when its publically funded here and they can say with a 98% probability that a CX Bladder test replaces a Cystoscopy then they would encourage patients to use it instead of the other in a certain age group provided they accepted the risks, (I gathered a waiver would be required).

Its a good product, how much time it takes to get commercial traction and whether that's fairly reflected in the current market cap, who would really know ?
I think the stock is "highly speculative". It doesn't fit my investment profile but that's not to say it isn't worth a small punt within a well diversified investment portfolio. Good luck to all holders.

Yours faithfully
Lab Rat.

[psychic]

Thanks Roger, and great to hear you are all clear.

I'm actually encouraged by this. We don't seem to even use the established biomarkers in NZ so "world first" leap to Cxbladder will not be made here.

The plan is US adoption first. And for my money this is now a lot less speculative than others think.