PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

EXPOSER--Its about exposer--I spent alot of time looking for a sign that PEB was even mentioned in the US medical community--This is a step in the right direction for recognition.
That was my biggest concern -marketing recognition.
To me thats more important than sales at this stage. (It shows that the marketing team are out there doing their job)
I dont think there are many who doubt that it will be successful in the testing--Its kind of like saying -''ok we see youve got this product,lets give it a go and see if its worth its salt''
Imo it was worth the rise in SP

[winner69]

Where the hell is this Edison report?

See what's happened to SCY shareprice when Edison come out with a hyped up valuation

Jeez PEB valued at $1.40 to $1.70 by Edison would see shareprice rocket over the $1 mark

Might need to adjust my 90/100 short term target

C'mon Edison ...hurry up with that report

[Minerbarejet]

This is great news. Very pleased. Well done PEB.

Being XL I guess a 6G+ shunt in the right direction in one day would do wonders for your outlook as well.

[apac]

Here's a hypothetical question. Say if revenue reaches $100m and PEB starts making a profit, how much would the company be worth?

[winner69]

Here's a hypothetical question. Say if revenue reaches $100m and PEB starts making a profit, how much would the company be worth?

$1.85 this year and over $3.00 in 5 years time. Source: MAC earlier post

Edison will come out with a report in the $1.40 to $1.70 range. Source: Word on the street

[klid]

$1.85 this year and over $3.00 in 5 years time. Source: MAC earlier post

Edison will come out with a report in the $1.40 to $1.70 range. Source: Word on the street

That's far from 1 bil even... I think it would be a lot more than $1.85 with 100m revenue (the margins would be, good?)


0.82c sells almost gone.

[klid]

And dont forget this 100 mil revenue goal was based on obtaining roughly 10 % of market share.

Potential of 2 million tests PA at say $500 a unit is revenue of $1 billion.
Is that 100% market share this "2 million" number that I have heard?

[benjitara]

I love it how everybody throws numbers around like PEB has already achieved everything they set out to do.. Let's not forget about what this stock is about. Diagnosis of cancer.... yes we can all have our dreams about the share price but how many people here would give their shares back just to see a loved one taken by the bloody thing in the past? All the best to PEB and those involved, let's not forget them in all the profit speak.

[biker]

I love it how everybody throws numbers around like PEB has already achieved everything they set out to do.. Let's not forget about what this stock is about. Diagnosis of cancer.... yes we can all have our dreams about the share price but how many people here would give their shares back just to see a loved one taken by the bloody thing in the past? All the best to PEB and those involved, let's not forget them in all the profit speak.

I think that is a given benjitara. This is not a tobacco stock or alcohol stock. PEB is in the business of saving lives, not destroying them. As shareholders we know this. I see nothing callous in profit projections for this stock because greater profits mean more people are accessing a superior diagnostic tool, enhancing their health outcomes.

[nextbigthing]

Ok, I'll bite. Please note that this is completely back of the envelope!

1. According to PEB, the gross margin on cx bladder in the states is 81%, so $100m revenue = $81m GROSS profit.
2. Assuming fixed costs of - say- $20 million, that gives net profit before tax of $61m.
3. Next, assuming a forward looking PE of (say) 25 - which is more than reasonable for a growth stock like this - I get a market cap of about $1.5 billion.
4. Since about 318 million shares have been issued, this translates to about $4.70 per share.

HOWEVER, this is really just a valuation of CX bladder, not PEB. If they can crack cx bladder in the states, the door will be wide open for all the other products that they have in the pipeline. If those can also be successfully commercialised, then a future value of (say) $10 billion is not unfathomable, and this would translate to a share price of $30+ (ignoring splits etc).

Makes 80 cents look quite cheap, right?

My conservative take on it - also 'back of the envelope'

$80m Gross profit
Fiixed costs higher, say $30m
Net $50m
$50m / 318m shares = 16cps

payment / nominal rate = price Lets be conservative (in this case greedy) and not invest unless they paid a 10% divvy
0.16 / 0.1 = $1.6 per share in 5 years time

To discount that price to todays present value, use 10%. Why only 10%? It includes no default premium because you either believe it's going to happen or you don't. If it fails, discounting by an extra 3% is hardly going to save your bacon.

So FV $1.60 / (1.1^5) = near enough to $1PV

There you have it, $1 conservatively if they're going to make it

Summary, if you believe PEB are going to crack 10% and get the $100m then you can pay $1 now and effectively earn 10% from now until they stop, PEB can spend $30m a year against the $100m and don't have to develop anything else....

You just have to decide if they're going to crack it......