PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[sharp]

Think you will find that those who have researched PEB well consider it a lot less speculative than those that have not...

Tipping point? What is tippy about it?

Good products, it may be, and an achievable sales target but yet to see decent revenue.

Tipping point - see charts for yourself - nb. low volumes though.

[MAC]

Think you will find that those who have researched PEB well consider it a lot less speculative than those that have not.

Agree with that Psychic, one can become bounded by all that one does not know,

As with all growth stocks, DCF calculate the potential, assess the risks as acceptable and manage them with good ongoing research and diversification. It’s all about the risk/reward position.

Biotech’s are pretty well fully de-risked when they first become profitable, the shareprice doesn’t go in a straight line but it will go there. Circa $2.95 FY16 de-risked is my estimate. An investor can buy now during a gift dip or conservatively wait until 2016 and buy at $2.95 at a lower risk point, each to their own.

A Kaiser Permanente contract alone will do it, else probably the accrued Medicare revenues plus network provider revenues.


Edit: De-risked valuations clarified

FY15 De-risked $2.50
FY16 De-risked $2.95

Basis: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...894#post499894

[MAC]

I agree wholeheartedly Psychic & MAC, and the number of Americans covered; or, who have access to CxBladder because of the agreements signed with Pacific Edge Limited is:

MultiPlan 68,000,000
FedMed 40,000,000
ACPN 14,000,000
Kaiser 9,500,000
Stratose 8,600,000

TOTAL 140,000,000

add to that CMS 100,000,000 when they sign and it looks like we will have 240,000,000​

I’ve been looking at the other HMO’s too;

Some are quite large, well up the fortune 500 list, Blue Cross Blue Shield is an affiliation of 37 organisations in its own right.

Aetna	13.6M
Blue Cross Blue Shield	105.0M
CIGNA	0.6M
Kaiser Permanente	9.5M
Priority Health	0.6M
Humana	13.0M
Health Net	6.6M
United Health Group	85.0M
WellPoint	37.0M
WellCare Health	2.2M
Intermountain	0.7M

Kaiser Permanente have gone first, as we know, Pacific Edge have made it onto the radar of at least three others that I’m aware of, probably more, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Priority Health and Aetna, each of whom presently have Cxbladder listed at this time as not covered.

As I understand though this seems to be common when new diagnostic products first enter the marketplace and means these HMO’s have acknowledged that Cxbladder is commercially available but have not yet clinically evaluated or contractually entered into an agreement.

A user programme for each and away we go, though PEB have allowed five whole years to win a humble 10% of the HMO’s over.

https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/servic...der_cancer.pdf
https://www.priorityhealth.com/provi...cies/91562.pdf
http://www.aetna.com/cpb/medical/data/300_399/0352.html

[Toasty]

I agree wholeheartedly Psychic & MAC, and the number of Americans covered; or, who have access to CxBladder because of the agreements signed with Pacific Edge Limited is:

MultiPlan 68,000,000
FedMed 40,000,000
ACPN 14,000,000
Kaiser 9,500,000
Stratose 8,600,000

TOTAL 140,000,000

add to that CMS 100,000,000 when they sign and it looks like we will have 240,000,000​

Are these all unique potential customers or can they be recorded under more than one entity?

[MAC]

Excerpt from the Chairman’s speech for those that were not at the AGM or have not seen the transcript.

Attachment 6235

A fair distinction too between molecular diagnostics and pharma litigiously, no consumed chemical drugs or invasive procedures with Pacific Edge to go horribly wrong, just a repeatable test performed by equipment in a controlled environment.

Gawd, there are some in NZ though that can’t even figure out the difference between accounting software and biotech, both have a “tech” and a squiggly line, must be the same then, just shows how screwed up some must be when it comes to investment sense.

[MAC]

Are these all unique potential customers or can they be recorded under more than one entity?

It's like this, network providers like FedMed on the left side, HMO's like Kaiser Permanente on the right side;

Attachment 6236

[Minerbarejet]

Massive turnover to start the day

[winner69]

Massive turnover to start the day

And building nicely too

[MAC]

It can depend on which commercialisation path Pacific Edge choose to take, two clearly stand out;

Path 1: To work a melanoma test product through a similar development and commercialisation sequence as Cxbladder which would take 18 to 24 months for clinical trials and regulatory approvals. It would probably be over two years before we saw any revenues.

Path 2: To sign up with a partner, whilst this would also take 18 to 24 months to commercialise a product into the market, Pacific Edge may actually begin to monetise the product much much earlier than that.

These types of partnership agreements tend to include a lump sum payment to the developer (Pacific Edge) upon partnership agreement signing, and then further payments at specific development and commercialisation milestones at agreed steps along the way.

There is some evidence that suggest Pacific Edge may take this direction and maybe presently pursuing it at this time,

David Darling recently told us ’This particular opportunity lends itself nicely to a partnership with a company that might be developing a drug for melanoma”

And this, “it may require only a limited amount of work by us in conjunction with a partner to bring about quite a significant commercial windfall”.

This windfall may well be a multimillion dollar lump sum payment made upon partnership singing.

IMO all this could well happen sooner rather than later as there are a couple of quite advanced potential companion Melanoma drugs entering clinical trials at present, the companion opportunity may be lost if Pacific Edge leave the melanoma product on the shelf for over two years.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...all#post502729

[MAC]

Oh I should have better clarified, I also don't think the completion of the Pacific Edge clinical trial will be soon, perhaps a year away at least, but the signing of a partnership agreement and initial lump sum payment may well be much sooner and could happen at any time now (months).

Many of these partnership agreements are made pre diagnostic clinical trial, thus allowing both companion diagnostic and drug products to advance in parallel progressively toward becoming a commercialised product suite.

As I understand, multiple, increasingly more comprehensive clinical trials are often required in bringing drugs to the pharmacy counter. Only one clinical trial is typically required for companion diagnostic test products. So the timing seems about right for a sign up with one of the pharma’s about here, perhaps Roche.

The pharma potentially enters the relationship based on an evaluation of Pacific Edge patents, IP, research and technology. Pacific Edge enter on their assessment of the pharma’s preliminary trials.

Such agreements typically provide milestone payments upon signing, during the late research and development phase and then royalties once in the market place.

Pacific Edge have the US patent now which steers the pharma’s toward them and away from the competitors. The pharma’s presently entering a clinical trial stage or which are in the early clinical trial stage, may well will be looking at PEB like they are a roast dinner.