PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

Winner, without trying to sound dumb, if you hadn,t circled the death cross i wouldnt have known it was one but it certainly meant something to a lot of people because the sp did drop but why the sp climb when no news to kick off un up trend... what triggers the climb

New guy turning bullish?

[ziggy415]

A short term view but it would be nice to see a longer term trend line form off regular announcements now.

The thing is though that customer agreements can also occur at anytime, each agreement that comes along should in theory cement another step up toward de-risked valuation, but one can’t predict the timing unless your name is Jackie Walker.

That five year goal of $100M in revenues may well be met with just a handful of agreements, perhaps even just 10 or 15 across that whole five year time frame, Kaiser Permanente first and onward upward on a curve from there.

Potentially companion diagnostic windfall agreements along the way for the prognosis products, melanoma and colorectal. And, of course a release at some point of the revenues accrued with Medicare.

Most of the larger shareholders, perhaps with the exception of Huljich, seem to be content to keep Pacific Edge as a long term bottom draw holding, rightfully so IMO as I’ve a de-risked valuation of FY16 $2.95 excluding pipeline commercialisation.

Profitability and de-risking may well be just 12 to 18 months away now, be nice to see a more confident line toward that point now that the market seems more satisfied with early progress.

Mac how do you put a de-risked price for fy 16 when we have no sales at present.....I understand if only one provider goes with cx bladder they wont just buy a couple of kits, probably more like a couple of thousand kits so i can see sales climbing quickly but until such time it is only guesswork...or am i missing something....besides a brain i mean

[MAC]

All questions are fair Ziggy, DCF analysis based on market research and company advised goals and other pertinent information is the answer, my last valuation basis was here;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...894#post499894

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

I’ve posted these links on the thread before, worth a read if you have the time and some inclination.

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/...42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp

[winner69]

Winner, just a question about the charts, I am not a TA follower but interested all the same. It looks like you are picking 1.10 on the basis of the stable period in April to mid May - your dotted blue line. If you go back a little further to Novemberish last year there is an earlier and longer stable period around 1.25. Why would one not go back to that period for the target? Thanks in advance.

One step at a time. I see 110 as the first major resistance level.

When (if) the price gets to 110 time to reassess. If the price breaks through 110 yes the next target is about 125. But lets get to 110 before worrying about that

Nothing certain in life. Could turn to custard again next week and go below 70 again.

[nextbigthing]

Nothing certain in life.

Death and taxes.

[ziggy415]

All questions are fair Ziggy, DCF analysis based on market research and company advised goals and other pertinent information is the answer, my last valuation basis was here;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...894#post499894

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

I’ve posted these links on the thread before, worth a read if you have the time and some inclination.

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/...42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp

thanks mac...have read 100% of articles... understood 50%.....still seems bit hit and miss to me....one question...if i am suspected of bladder cancer ,how many kits would i use till im cured or put away my knife and fork.....ie..$20,000 worth of drug a year for 5 years is a lot more than say half dozen test kits

[winner69]

thanks will do... mostly moosie PM me through his new ST acc.

Blue Dog is a Complex person eh?

[MAC]

thanks mac...have read 100% of articles... understood 50%.....still seems bit hit and miss to me....one question...if i am suspected of bladder cancer ,how many kits would i use till im cured or put away my knife and fork.....ie..$20,000 worth of drug a year for 5 years is a lot more than say half dozen test kits

Well, it would depend if you are even diagnosed and on how you responded to treatment, after just a couple of Cxbladder tests you may have been triaged and sent home to have a happy life, if your cancer is progressive there could be very many more.

Here’s a quick calculation based on US market figures;

Number of potential tests per annum (Pacific Edge): 2,000,000
Number of new cancer patients per annum (Cancer Society): 74,690
Number of people presenting with haematuria each year (Pacific Edge): 1,000,000

If the 1,000,000 haematuria patients are screened with a single test each and 74,690 of them are found to have bladder cancer, than the average cancer patient will receive

(2,000,000 – 1,000,000) / 74,690 = 13.3 tests each

That may sound like a lot of tests but one must consider there are at least seven value propositions, and as bladder cancer has a very high recurrence rate, this figure will include ongoing monitoring tests potentially for a duration of several years in some cases.

Attachment 6246

[Beagle]

What do you PEB bulls make of Darling and co getting a sweetheart deal for millions of in the money options free of charge ?
Move out of the way I want to get my snout further in the trough first or a good example of incentivising key management ?

[skid]

What would the SP have to get to for their options to be viable?

Its obniusly a very different game than an outright raise