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  1. #9541
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Don't bother read all the words and trawl through all the numbers

    Just take in the heading - that's all most will bother with


    Pacific Edge

    On the edge of glory

  2. #9542
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    Well it was out in plenty of time for brokers and investors to take a gander at it before trading opened, and market reaction at 10am seemed to be zilch.

  3. #9543
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    The only thing disappointing really is that both Forsyth Barr and Edison have elected to form a base case assumption that Pacific Edge will be two years late in achieving their five year $100M goal.

    My DCF based on PEB being on time is $1.85, one year late at $1.50
    Forsyth Barr valuation, two years late at $0.96
    Edison valuation, two years late at $1.16

    It does though open up two questions which may be mutually exclusive;

    1. Who is correct on the company's outlook, Pacific Edge or the analysts, ....., now that would be an interesting question to put to David Darling ?

    and,

    2. Are the analysts being a bit conservative for now, whilst awaiting a revenue curve to establish, and in doing so are allowing themselves room for valuation upgrades over time, on a let's wait and see basis ?

    No wonder investors are often confused.

    "Based on progress todate in the US market, Pacific Edge management’s target of NZ$100m insales by FY19 or the group looks attainable. However, we err on the side ofcaution and model revenue of NZ$100m two years later in FY21"
    Last edited by MAC; 30-09-2014 at 11:48 AM.

  4. #9544
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    With the correct number of shares in the equation the Edison valuation should be 1.05.
    Thats my take and feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
    Cheers
    Miner

  5. #9545
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewGuy View Post
    While these future products and IP are obviously highly speculative and therefore difficult to value, assigning a value of zero is extremely lazy and misleading.
    Disagree with this. It is nigh on impossible to actually value these products, and while I agree the certainly do have a non zero dollar value, it is an extremely minimal value given how far away they are from actual cash flows. The conservative approach is correct imo.

  6. #9546
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longhaul View Post
    I know we can all read (or at least I hope so), but the sales windfall relating to CMS coverage (page 7) was especially interesting:

    "CMS1 (Center for Medicaid and Medicare services) and Veteran’s Administration (VA)2


    CMS coverage is paramount to successful commercialisation in the US. The reimbursement and approval process for Cxbladderdetect is underway and CMS and Pacific Edge management believe the conclusion of negotiations will likely occur later this calendar year or in the early part of 2015.


    Currently tests are being processed and invoiced. Once negotiations on a contract are complete, these can be billed, at which time we can expect a sales windfall for Pacific Edge as the backlog is processed. Advanced discussions are also underway with the Veteran’s Administration (VA)."
    I hope they recognise their revenue at the right time to avoid being a DIL

  7. #9547
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimHickey View Post
    Disagree with this. It is nigh on impossible to actually value these products, and while I agree the certainly do have a non zero dollar value, it is an extremely minimal value given how far away they are from actual cash flows. The conservative approach is correct imo.
    I’m with you Jim, it’s hard enough to value what’s in the market already, although if it came to a takeover the IP would need to be assessed and valued somehow.

    Cxcolorectal is all but market ready, and from the radio interview last week with DD, it could well be picked up by some lucky Japanese pharma at any time, perhaps we will see this product valued in the next analyst report, might not have caught this one. It could well be a very nice contract sign up windfall also.

  8. #9548
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    Having to fight ''tooth and nail'' for every cent these days,but thats not necessarily a bad thing.
    If its gets up to that $1 mark it will be an honest well earned dollar.

    The market is keeping the boys honest and they are holding up pretty well so far.

  9. #9549
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    Just had an email back from Pacific Edge.
    They are aware of the Edison Report mistake with shares issued and Edison will be issuing an amended report - soon

  10. #9550
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    Are the analysts being a bit conservative for now, whilst awaiting a revenue curve to establish, and in doing so are allowing themselves room for valuation upgrades over time, on a let's wait and see basis ?
    I think they pretty much said that didn't they. There will be considerable scope for rerating.... CMS.... VA.... Proof of comercial success, any one of these 3 things and boom?

    One thing I conclude is they should charge more ($800) for tests.

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