PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

I noticed with Edison they gave the price a 2% increase each year...a lazy way of saying, allowing for 2% inflation per year..

When using forward thinking or predicting the future you have to use exponential thinking not linear thinking to be more accurate in ones predictions....
There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...It upsets the old systems, old businesses stick up barriers but its futile...
We have seen Moores Law+ in operation with electronics which has seen the old communication systems perish..
We are starting to see this revolution entering in to the Medical system now..once a system develops a digital code it becomes a revolution with the old established system and the new innovative sytems grabbing to take their place..The Gene Mapping is digital.

New innovative systems emerge which are more efficient at a less cost, they are faster and churn out more products/time....As the revolution progresses it does so at an exponental plus rate (normal is exponental rate) with sudden life changing innovations...e.g email killing off NZ Post .what does NZP do? puts up the price of postage..an act of suicide?.
The film industry force legal laws to help them stop the flow of data or imaging data through the net..is a barrier and an act of denial..so what do they do..put up the price to see all forms of movies...
Also the price of Data is declining at an exponential rate.. the speed of data is increasing at an exponential rate...the processing speed of that data is increasing at an exponential rate

Klid..putting up the price of tests ? ...Hmmm ...Remember your history of what has happened during the last two industrial revolutions...No? well you are not alone as most company operators didn't learn their history at school neither. That sudden advancement of modernisation creates cheaper ways of producing things using less labour caused a decade of economic distress within Countries due to the displacement of Jobs and persistant deflation...

With the onslaught of the Industrial Revolution into the Biotech industry if I was Edison team using forward projection I would be lowering the price/test each year not increasing it.

Patents won't save PEB from innovative competitors..being quick footed will.. An innovator (within an IR effected delationary Sector) being up to the moment or ahead of the game will get the rewards the rest won't e.g Google, Samsung, Apple...Us shareholders have seen how quick PEB is..sadly it's performance to date reminds you of a snail

Perhaps the snails pace is more due to the circus of regulatory approval taking so long in this field as opposed to any skiiving off on PEB's part. Long lead times seem to have become the norm now, something we were unaware of last year, hence the spike and hence the drop and consolidation.

[skid]

As long as they are not losing money $550 for large volume (lovely word) customers is not necessarily a bad thing.
Price and volume is usually an inverse relationship (and you are much better off being on the volume side of the equation) Heres hoping

Disc. Holding but watching closely--still trying to figure out what to do about holding through the next sales announcement.

I believe PEB will get there in the end ,but the Share traders are the wild card and these things take time

[Minerbarejet]

As long as they are not losing money $550 for large volume (lovely word) customers is not necessarily a bad thing.
Price and volume is usually an inverse relationship (and you are much better off being on the volume side of the equation) Heres hoping

Disc. Holding but watching closely--still trying to figure out what to do about holding through the next sales announcement.

I believe PEB will get there in the end ,but the Share traders are the wild card and these things take time

What do you expect for sales numbers to influence your decisions?

[skid]

I think theres a good chance the sales numbers will not be that high yet.
I dont think that means the company wont achieve its goals in the long run but how it would affect shareholders emotionally is up for debate.
No question about what great sales figures would achieve,and of course some great announcement would be more than welcome

[Minerbarejet]

I think theres a good chance the sales numbers will not be that high yet.
I dont think that means the company wont achieve its goals in the long run but how it would affect shareholders emotionally is up for debate.
No question about what great sales figures would achieve,and of course some great announcement would be more than welcome

So given the expected 3000 sales by Edison to the end of Mar 2015 what should we be expecting to the end of Sept 2014. Given the incremental and expotential nature of the shares are we looking at 700, 1000, 1300? Would any number that exceeded 1500 indicate that the Edison is way out?

[Carpenterjoe]

I'm more interested in how many tests are being completed/carried out. I'm not too worried about how many are billed for. Sucsessful user programmes are the key. The possible windfall from cms is very interesting.

But to give you a number 1000-1500. I've tried to use the latest cellmid annual report for a guide, but it rasied more questions about how royalties are paid, and the different reporting periods.

I was surprised how conserivtive the Edison report was and even disappointed in the number of mistakes it made. I need to give it credit for inlighting me on the Queensland user programme. I've either completely missed that or it's newish information.

Happy Shareholder

[klid]

So given the expected 3000 sales by Edison to the end of Mar 2015 what should we be expecting to the end of Sept 2014. Given the incremental and expotential nature of the shares are we looking at 700, 1000, 1300? Would any number that exceeded 1500 indicate that the Edison is way out?

It's interesting, because they refer to the ability to convert the user programs into paying tests quite crucial.
They refer to a backlog of paid tests once a CMS contract is negotiated and they refer to negotiations on this contract to be concluded late this or early next year.
So, Edison forecast $2m revenue for FY Mar 15 right? If over $1m revenue in the first half, or anywhere close actually... then very interesting.

[klid]

No CMS announcement today, but maybe tomorrow for my birthday?

There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...

Hoop. Are you planning on getting back in? I take note of your entries/exits as they seem to have a lot of merit. But your 88 exit recently I am not so sure about. Would be keen on your thoughts.

[Minerbarejet]

Happy Birthday Klid, hope you get your wish but think it might take a while to show up yet.
Snail Mail is pretty slow these days.

[Hoop]

No CMS announcement today, but maybe tomorrow for my birthday?



Hoop. Are you planning on getting back in? I take note of your entries/exits as they seem to have a lot of merit. But your 88 exit recently I am not so sure about. Would be keen on your thoughts.

Happy Birthday Klid for tomorrow.
A few posters are skeptical of TA and 2 reoccurring arguments they use is "it looks great in hindsight" and a belief TAists don't trade right on or before those rallies or corrections where those blue and red arrows are because the charts are drawn using this hindsight...and..that chartists tell porkies when saying we got +60% profit from a share last year that only went up +40%.
The only way I could counter those arguments is to post my trades real time using TA...So I decided to Chart for one year 3 companies PEB AIR and SUM only as I felt it wasn't prudent to show all my trading..
At first I thought it was a good idea and very educational...It still is ...but there are other factors that come into play that I didn't think of...such as individual's portfolio repositioning..risk...restrictive opportunity...etc.

With my portfolio at 100%/0% (0% cash) I decided to sell PEB due to increasing Equity risk (global weakness) and very high restrictive opportunity position...A 100/0 portfolio position is a crazy position for a TA investor.

Now the problem.. when it comes to drawing the next PEB chart my sale will be against TA discipline...For the transparency of the TA argument sake and as evidence I posted the day I sold and why..(#10706 24th Sept)

I did mention in that post that the BB bands were favourable at that time the price could go upwards ...

The present situation is... PEB has flatlined (trend less), the BB have squeezed even more and a not so common ma50 / ma200 squeeze situation is being applied..Many common TA indicators are less reliable during trend less activity, so the must happen indefinable trend breakout will be occurring very shortly (next few days?)