PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Xerof]

Masfen knew what he was doing....

I can't believe the lack of revenue, are they giving them away?

can anyone point me to decent data on forecast sales numbers, price, and net per unit return to PEB?

[MAC]

Very pleased to see PEB management on schedule against commitments made two years ago, this says a lot about the quality of their team to me. But they certainly seem to be stressing some by not having runs on the board, not that we should have expected any yet.

The potential of this stock remains enormous providing significant technology risk doesn't come into play. Running some numbers this afternoon I could easily see this as a $5 stock at FY16, provided PEB can meet guidance provided in there 2011 capital raising documentation.

Dej, perhaps we will see some further short term volatility as a lot is being taken on trust at present, but I largely agree with moosie, the SP won't be at these levels for long.

[Tumek]

5:17pm, 29 Nov 2011 | HALFYR

Steady progress is being made in the market place with the uptake of the Cxbladder by clinicians and the company is working with the Canterbury District Health Board, CDHB, to get Cxbladder recognised as part of the clinical guidelines. Completion of a successful outcome with CDHB could reasonably be expected see Cxbladder readily available to urologists and approximately 400 general practitioners, (GP's) in the Canterbury region as part of the District Health Boards clinical process.

Would like to know how this is going?

[Whipmoney]

5:17pm, 29 Nov 2011 | HALFYR

Steady progress is being made in the market place with the uptake of the Cxbladder by clinicians and the company is working with the Canterbury District Health Board, CDHB, to get Cxbladder recognised as part of the clinical guidelines. Completion of a successful outcome with CDHB could reasonably be expected see Cxbladder readily available to urologists and approximately 400 general practitioners, (GP's) in the Canterbury region as part of the District Health Boards clinical process.

Would like to know how this is going?

Maybe this is other DHB they were in talks with.. to be honest though I would prefer it was the Auckland DHB given the population demographics..

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I found it interesting that they specifically stated that management still expects the 200,000 tests per annum to be reached by the end of the 5th year. They have been on the ground drumming up sales for a while now, so they probably have at least some indication as to how it's going to go. I don't think they would specifically say this if they now realised that it was unrealistic.

[Snow Leopard]

I regret headlining the drop in year on year Trading Revenue now, seems to have made one or people a bit nervous.

Last year was made up of:
Cxbladder Sales: $9k6
Licence Fees: $163k5
Other: $24k9
for a total of $198k

This year is down all of $16k and you do not know the breakdown (of course it would help if PEB gave a bit more detail).

But strip out the other, assume licence fees are a one-off and maybe this year is direct sales and royalty payments from licence holders and you may have good growth in sales.

As for 200,000 tests in 5 years time, it is far too early to know that the target can or can not be achieved, you will just have to watch the reports as they come out.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blobbles]

Ha haa, I aren't nervous ...

I think the past year all concentration has been on getting the US lab up and away with the right staff in place to drive the product over there. Now that they have the staff in the US (and are handing off the growth drive to them), they can refocus into driving growth in home markets. Makes sense to me.

The BIG indicator of course will be at the end of this year. If sales are floundering at that stage, they better have some good reasons for it or the SP will be heading back south of 30c.

But my money is on their success and 200k tests per year in 5 years looks easy to me considering the number of tests conducted worldwide and the excellence of their product.

[MAC]

Xerof, the forward five years sales guidance is per link below, pages 27 & 28. Hope you’re sitting down if you haven’t seen these before.

PEB didn't provide FY13 guidance, I took this to mean we wouldn't have much if any. Any present sales data seems to be just noise given the big picture for this company.

enjoy & regards,
Mac

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/images/...esentation.pdf

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.

The decision by a CMS contractor to deny coverage for bladder cancer diagnostics fromPredictive Biosciences Inc. (Lexington, Mass.) has caused the molecular diagnostic company to close its doors and lay off its 91 employees, CEO Pierre Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said the company is not viable in the absence of Medicare coverage, noting that Medicare represents about half of the market for Predictive's CertNDx bladder cancer diagnostic tests and many private payers mimic Medicare's coverage and reimbursement policies. Predictive's three bladder cancer tests are marketed in the U.S. as laboratory-developed tests, which are not subject to FDA approval.
In January, the Medicare contractor responsible for Ohio, where Predictive Bioscience's CLIA-certified laboratory is located, stopped paying claims for the company's tests, Cassigneul said. The contractor, CGS Administrators LLC, had previously been reimbursing about $380 per test. In April, CGS informed Predictive that resumption of coverage would be contingent on the company producing evidence of clinical utility, Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said a study to demonstrate the utility of CertNDx to predict bladder cancer recurrence could take two years to conduct, and "our investors are not willing to go further in supporting the company." CGS could not be reached for comment.

Predictive was founded in 2006 and has raised $77 million from Flybridge Capital Partners; Highland Capital Partners; Kaiser Permanente Ventures; New Enterprise Associates; and ProQuest Investments. Cassigneul said the company was "on track for $14.5 million" in 2013 revenues before losing Medicare coverage. Predictive's revenues were $1 million in 2011 and $4.2 million in 2012.

From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/...ve-biosciences

More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701

From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.

[Xerof]

Thanks MAC, and Hancocks

I don't see any guidance figures at all, only a series of penetration % examples, which of course look spectacular at the high end. See the disclaimer 1. in the small print on page 27

I want to wait for the full report, and some commentary, and perhaps even wait a year to see a track record, before entering.

XEROF