PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[BFG]

The sp action says PEB has made little traction in real sales.

Otherwise, word would leaked out and sp would be above $1.00 by now.

Very interesting comment Balance. I remember back in the heady days of $1+ you were very bullish on PEB. What's happened?

Considering the latest run up to 95 cents was on the back of a negligible revenue booster (melanoma ann) in the next 2-3 years, I think we can safely assume any new fall would target the 60 cent area (mean reversion). Guess PEB is still prone to momentum/trader hype, no matter how many on here would like to deny it (at least until real revenues start coming through!)

[Balance]

Very interesting comment Balance. I remember back in the heady days of $1+ you were very bullish on PEB. What's happened?

Considering the latest run up to 95 cents was on the back of a negligible revenue booster (melanoma ann) in the next 2-3 years, I think we can safely assume any new fall would target the 60 cent area (mean reversion). Guess PEB is still prone to momentum/trader hype, no matter how many on here would like to deny it (at least until real revenues start coming through!)

I am on record as bailing out of most of my shares a few months ago when the Chairman and company refused to update or comment on Swan's 'tens of thousands of tests in 2014' at the AGM.

[BFG]

I am on record as bailing out of most of my shares a few months ago when the Chairman and company refused to update or comment on Swan's 'tens of thousands of tests in 2014' at the AGM.

Ah yes now I remember. Getting older and all, memory fading into oblivion.

[Balance]

Ah yes now I remember. Getting older and all, memory fading into oblivion.

Happy to buy back in if PEB shows traction in sales - my suspicion is that they are struggling.

Will be a few other shareholders like me looking closely at this result and finger on the button!

[MAC]

Sales are likely to go in a piecewise steps, just like climbing the stairs as each contract is brought on board.

It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.

Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.

Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.

Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.

It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.

[Balance]

Sales are likely to go in a piecewise steps, just like climbing the stairs as each contract is brought on board.

It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.

Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.

Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.

Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.

It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.

Clock is ticking on Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests'.

That's what is at stake here now - credibility.

Much of investing in early start companies is about management.

Anyway, one man's opinion.

Meanwhile, sales numbers*are being collated for release to market and sp is falling ahead of announcement?

[MAC]

Clock is ticking on Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests'.

That's what is at stake here now - credibility.

Much of investing in early start companies is about management.

Anyway, one man's opinion.

Meanwhile, sales numbers*are being collated for release to market and sp is falling ahead of announcement?

No one will no how many tests there have been in 2014 until reporting time in May next year, plenty of time for that, doesn't seem unreasonable to me to expect 10,000 either actually.

I'm quite bullish on PEB, just another's opinion, they're pretty much on track, give or take, against the strategic plan they have provided, and they reaffirmed their US$100M goal as achieveable as recently as the AGM.

This coming report is all about the commentary, what they expect for the second half.

A continued reaffirmation of goals, launch of Cxbladder(triage), commentary with progress on discussion with LUG's and HMO's, timing for the next step up in sales staff from eight to twenty, timing for expansion into Asia, progress on discussions with pharma's on melanoma and colorectal companion diagnostic proposals, etc.

[BFG]

It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.

My bet would be on Kaiser as they have set up the latest testing with PEB. Very disappointing that no promised coverage has been announced though. Under promise and over deliver is a good motto to follow, especially in a regulated sector like medical.

Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.

PS ratio's were born out of the Dotcom Bubble because there was no other way of valuing the insanity that was going on. It is easy to see why PS ratios get out of hand on loss making companies when sentiments get irrationally exuberant. PEB was no different.

Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.

Isn't PEB quoting 80% margins on CxBladder? That is no different than gross margins for Diligent (80%+) or near Xero or VML (70%+, once the marketting/building of customers is done that is!)

Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.

Is that before or after the next capital raise? Your guess is as good as anyone's right now! Going to be interesting looking at revenues and burn rate at HY time...

It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.

You just said the only thing we could use was PS ratios. The company can put all the groundwork it wants in; if revenues never appear, it's a pure and utter dud. The more HY and FY reports that come out, the more the company will be valued on it's revenues. I hope you are prepared for that shift?

No one will know how many tests there have been in 2014 until reporting time in May next year, plenty of time for that, doesn't seem unreasonable to me to expect 10,000 either actually.

Unknowns and missed targets. Yikes! The market doesn't like uncertainty!

I'm quite bullish on PEB, just another's opinion, they're pretty much on track, give or take, against the strategic plan they have provided, and they reaffirmed their US$100M goal as achieveable as recently as the AGM.

Good, someones has to be I guess!

This coming report is all about the commentary, what they expect for the second half.

I'd certainly be praying for more than commentary like the last round. This is a company that needs to make money; the bubble sentiment to push it to extreme heights is long gone. Once it's gone, words alone cannot bring it up again. The company needs real, set-in-stone results. Nothing more, nothing less.

A continued reaffirmation of goals, launch of Cxbladder(triage), commentary with progress on discussion with LUG's and HMO's, timing for the next step up in sales staff from eight to twenty, timing for expansion into Asia, progress on discussions with pharma's on melanoma and colorectal companion diagnostic proposals, etc.

See above. Enough talk; where's our money?!?!

[MAC]

Gawd, one could practically write a book on why all that rubbish is just fundamentally wrong. The take away though I think is just simply that it seems Moose’s are not capable of changing their spots

[BFG]

Gawd, one could practically write a book on why all that rubbish is just fundamentally wrong. The take away though I think is just simply that it seems Moose’s are not capable of changing their spots

Fundamentally, how could you even begin to argue that sentiment has not shifted from "exuberant" to "negative" (at best)? And that's all PEB has going for it until that revenue starts rolling in.