PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Tumek]

Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.



From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/...ve-biosciences

More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701

From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.

Good info thanks. Great news for US division

[Tumek]

Hi Tumek, the only clue we really get is in the reports and learning to read past the hype. I think you are doing great by analysing stated goals in previous reports and checking against achievements. However, it is also important to understand why a certain goal wasn’t achieved; Pacific Edge have missed a few over the years, but the reasons behind this was more opportunity because of changing technology etc. which in one instance added a year or two to Cxbladder development, but the gains were incredible and well worth it. The technology that changed was the availability of desk top units to analyse the tests.

I’m slightly disappointed in the revenue announced in this report, because the steady uptake indicated in the 2011 report obviously just ain’t there. But I still think Pacific Edge is the tiger’s pyjamas.

Hopefully full report may enlighten us as to why uptake is low. I'm in for long haul, just keeping it real, I think?

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...oss-us-beckons

Don't think I'll sell just yet.

Interesting about Predictive Bioscience. I'm picking the difference between their product and CXBladder is that Pacific Edge have done the hard yards in terms of developing their product so they were able to provide catergory one clinical trial data. Good enough to be published in the American Journal Of Urology.

As has been mentioned previously on this thread, medical specialists can be a conservative lot, so getting the science right and providing the proper clinical evidence is essential in launching a new product. There might be some frustration regarding revenue to date, but things look to be on track to me.

[Minerbarejet]

All good barney. One thing that concerns me is the fact that they have this name of Pedusa. Bit too much like the mythical Medusa, the young lady with the snake encrusted bad hair day whose countenance could only be observed by using a mirror. However, upon reflection, I suppose the snake is all part of the medical symbol. Just hope it all doesn't become a near myth or a load of old cobras

[Dej]

All good barney. One thing that concerns me is the fact that they have this name of Pedusa. Bit too much like the mythical Medusa, the young lady with the snake encrusted bad hair day whose countenance could only be observed by using a mirror. However, upon reflection, I suppose the snake is all part of the medical symbol. Just hope it all doesn't become a near myth or a load of old cobras

"Mr Darling expected the first US tests would be going through the Pennsylvania lab within about eight weeks" From that article

[Minerbarejet]

"Mr Darling expected the first US tests would be going through the Pennsylvania lab within about eight weeks" From that article

and with a spare 14.5 million worth of business trying to find a home now it could get very interesting very quickly. If it turns out that PEB has blown the major US opposition out of the water at this stage with a superior test package or at least has something more suitable available then I see them becoming a benchmark in this field worldwide.

[Slam dunk]

[QUOTE=barney;409943]http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...oss-us-beckons

This sounded interesting...

"Mr Darling said Cxbladder had several applications for a number of variations within diagnosing bladder cancer, and the company was in negotiations with several parties, but he was unable to identify them yet."

[barney]

The ODT article this morning is typical understated but exciting stuff for Pacific Edge Limited, gotta luv em! Got 25 staff, good level to get traction.

That was a bit of a suprise Hancocks, 25 staff already with another 14 to be hired in coming months. It just shows how much work they have been doing and how far they have come in a reasonably short time. Hats off to David Darling and co.

Looks like there might be some more announcements coming in the monthe ahead, if negotiations go as planned.

AGM on August 22nd will be an interesting affair. I think they might need a bigger venue this year.

[Tumek]

Timing is everything I guess.

From yesterday’s FY13 results "Management retains the expectation that Pacific Edge will reach the 200,000 tests per annum throughput target for the laboratory by the end of the 5th year of trading".

No company can guarantee a forward expectation but this table as a growth curve appears to trend well toward guidance PEB affirmed in the results commentary, and it commences from here on in. Further affirmed by David Darling's comments this morning in the ODT that "Pacific Edge estimates it could be turning over $100 million a year in the United States within five years."

Disc: holding and buckling up

Attachment 4566

If we were to assume similar market penetration in NZ/AUS.


Yr1: 0.005*55000/85000(total no. of tests,low/high conservative)
=275/425 (market share)


275/425*320(retail cost,NZ)=88000/136000(total sales yr1)
> actual 198000


Yr2: @ 0.02 > 352000/467500 (total sales). > Actual 182000


Yr3. @0.05 > 880000/1360000 (total sales) > 400/700% increase

[MAC]

The early NZ/Aus growth curve is a little different to the US curve IMHO, as PEB have been boldly attempting to sell concurrently with an R&D or pre-approvals development phase up until now.

If you or I were to sit in a senior urologists or a DHB general managers chair and spin around a few times we may very well realise that the last question we would want to receive is 'why we had committed to a CxBladder test programme that ultimately failed US regulatory approval'.

It is entirley possible that what we have been seeing in the second half of the 2013 year is health professionals waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for CLIA approval, and now it’s been achieved it's now time for them to commit. The lull or anticipation period may be what we are seeing reflected in the local market FY13 sales figures having dropped slightly. And, sure enough we are only now, post CLIA approval, starting to see DHB's come on board.

Agree that the NZ, Australian and Spanish sales will be a nice sweetener on top of the US sales growth curve.

Ahemmm......., should any of the good folk at PEB ever read this thread, you’re most dedicated and loyal investors would like to request quarterly sales reports from here on forward, then we don't have to guess as above - many thanks.