PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Snow Leopard]

Show us your calculations Tiger and I would be more than happy to demonstrate why and where you may or may not be incorrect.

would be a pleasure, Mac

you seem to have forgotten your promise .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[klid]

Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?

Seriously weird...

A rights issue right now would signal a failure. I can tell you that it won't happen - at least for a year, and I would say it won't happen at all, ever. If it did -- I certainly would be dropping this company from my watch.

Thanks for your post Hoop, I would be very interested in hearing from you when you think there's some buy signals

[skid]

I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m

Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow


Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.

We'll be right

How my arithmetic mac

How do you know the expense figure of 16mil is right?---and how many tests would have to be paid for, for the 3 mill income?

Not doubting your arithmetic--just wondering how you arrived at those figures you are using in your arithmetic

[MAC]

Genuine apologies Tiger, I did miss your post buried amongst all the mindless knocker rubbish, not hard to do on this thread.

I’m being quite conservative with the price point until we are advised otherwise by Pacific Edge, noting that Forbar and Edison both think it should be quite a bit higher than $550.

The KP contract may well be worth between $10 to $20M in revenues within the first 18 months, trending upward from there, happy to share a basis for that reasoning on a more detailed level.

kind regards, Mac

Consider the prospective Kaiser Permanente contract;

Number of KP members: 9.5M
Population of the USA: 315M
Potential number of US tests p.a: 2M
Anticipated Cxbladder price point: US$550

Prospective annual KP contract = (9.5/315) x 2 x 550 = US$33M revenues per annum

This figure probably represents a maximum contract take up, but still even a conservative US$10 to US$20M estimate would still represent a meaningful expectation.

This one contract alone by itself will make Pacific Edge profitable. Five to ten of these contracts won over the duration of the five year plan, and there’s the $100M goal met.

[skid]

A rights issue right now would signal a failure. I can tell you that it won't happen - at least for a year, and I would say it won't happen at all, ever. If it did -- I certainly would be dropping this company from my watch.

Thanks for your post Hoop, I would be very interested in hearing from you when you think there's some buy signals

I think his third paragraph alluded to above 87 a buy signal (but a risky one)and 95 and above a much less risky buy signal

The way Im reading it -you are giving up potential short term gains (with the associated high risk of loss) for a more stable uptrend--You are making your profit on the 95 and up with an established trend instead of throwing the dice at this level (and from what I gather ,they are loaded against you)---just my take as a novice --Hoop or KW could verify

[winner69]

How do you know the expense figure of 16mil is right?---and how many tests would have to be paid for, for the 3 mill income?

Not doubting your arithmetic--just wondering how you arrived at those figures you are using in your arithmetic

From last years accounts and from what PEB have sort of indicated, esp a slide in one of their presentations that gave some detail to FY15 expenses.

My estimate and that's what I am using in my DCF .... could be something completely different for all we know.

[skid]

Genuine apologies Tiger, I did miss your post buried amongst all the mindless knocker rubbish, not hard to do on this thread.

I’m being quite conservative with the price point until we are advised otherwise by Pacific Edge, noting that Forbar and Edison both think it should be quite a bit higher than $550.

The KP contract may well be worth between $10 to $20M in revenues within the first 18 months, trending upward from there, happy to share a basis for that reasoning on a more detailed level.

kind regards, Mac

Its the ''trending upward from there'' where the safe money is (its less, but safer $ IMO) Once that ''IF'' and ''When'' is out of way its much clearer sailing.

Like many ,I will be watching with interest.

[winner69]

well they are not the best at sticking to the story

Well my numbers are worse than those of the much touted Edison Report

Edison has cash burn of $8m in 15 and 16 (revenues of $2.6m in 15 and $14m in 16). So $4m left heading in FY17

No cap raising BFG

Note: My numbers assume everything goes to plan .... or else this could turn into an never ending story of 'next year we will be profitable'

[Balance]

Well my numbers are worse than those of the much touted Edison Report

Edison has cash burn of $8m in 15 and 16 (revenues of $2.6m in 15 and $14m in 16). So $4m left heading in FY17

No cap raising BFG

Note: My numbers assume everything goes to plan .... or else this could turn into an never ending story of 'next year we will be profitable'

Don't joke about things like that!

[klid]

I like the risky, cheap... low price buy signals before the uptrend starts.