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Junior Member
[quote]Originally posted by tricha
Hi Sid
After the Preliminary Final Report which I would have thought would have been out. [quote]
Tricha, out today. Confirms dividend and gives payment date.
Take what you need, leave the rest.
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True or False, time will tell
Mining, scrap & inventories cannot meet nickel demand
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '18-SEP-05 04:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
RENO--(Mineweb.com) Inco President and COO Peter Jones told the Merrill Lynch 11th Annual Mining Conference that, despite some substitution, the demand for nickel remains healthy, particularly in China, where it rose 50% during the first half of this year.
And, Jones added, primary nickel production, secondary stainless steel scrap, and nickel inventories are all unable to satisfy the underlying demand.
During the first quarter of this year, China surpassed the US as the world's largest nickel consumer, accounting for 16% of demand. Jones said China "lacks domestic nickel resources and processing capability" with domestic nickel production only meeting 50% of Chinese demand. The Asia-Pacific region consumes about 50% of world nickel demand and comprises 60% of Inco's sales. Jones estimated that 560 Inco employees already work in China. "As the Chinese nickel market grows, we will grow with it," he declared.
The good news is that Inco's massive Voisey Bay project in Labrador has just produced its first concentrate this past week, six months ahead of schedule. Production at Voisey's Bay will continue to ramp up during the next few months with 110 million pounds of nickel in concentrate expected to be produced next year.
China has embarked on the stainless steel consumption growth path taken by Japan, Taiwan and Korea, Jones explained. China's domestic stainless capacity should increase by 6 million tonnes in the next five years and account for more than 70% of the world's stainless steel growth, according to Jones.
While most stainless steel producers reduced output in the third quarter and are expected to continue to do so in the short term, Jones noted that the "third quarter is always slow. In fact, stainless production falls 6% on average in the summer months." He forecasted that a 9% drop in stainless steel production (600,000 tonnes) between the second and third quarter should eliminate most of the excess inventories. "Clearly the stainless steel industry is intent on reversing oversupply and providing a solid base for growth in the fourth quarter and in 2006," Jones declared, adding some stainless producers may still continue to reduce output during the fourth quarter of this year.
As a result, Inco is forecasting annual stainless production growth of 4.3% this year. Jones also noted that the scrap ratio for this year will rise to nearly 49%, "the highest level on record." Nevertheless, Jones insisted, LME plus producer nickel inventories "are still at the lowest levels in history--less than four weeks of demand. High nickel prices have failed to prove the existence of unreported-or hidden-stocks."
Jones predicted that underlying nickel demand will be strong in 2006 with economic conditions at least as good as this year. Meanwhile, nickel inventories will be low at the beginning of next year, while Inco has projected that nickel demand growth for 2006 will be held to about 3-4%, according to Jones, below the long-term average, leading to continued high and volatile prices. "Composite leading indicators have turned positive pointing to a recovery at the beginning of next year. The aerospace cycle is gaining strength; and world stainless capacity will be up by mover 2.5 million tonnes as Chinese producers ramp up," he said.
While four new nickel mines are expected to come on line over the next two years, Jones said nickel demand will still not be met. For instance, "only a portion of Voisey Bay's output will be new to the market," he explained. Voisey's Bay is expected to produce 50,000 tonnes yearly beginning in the first quarter of next year.
"A number of nickel projects are at the feasibility stage but several are delayed, dye to capital cost increases, financing issues, or other reasons. So project challenges are large. Additional new supply may be available later than many people think," Jones said.
Inco's other
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Junior Member
Tricha,
Have you caught up with this IGO news, looks good:
LONG NICKEL MINE – 2005 ORE RESERVES AND RESOURCES
Highlights
• Long Nickel Mine reserves increased to 1,283,500t at 3.8% nickel for 49,370 nickel
tonnes
• 25% increase in nickel metal reserves after taking 2004/5 production of 8,868t nickel into
account
• The new McLeay deposit is open to the north, south and east.
• Further resource/reserve increases are likely - a number of extensional nickel sulphide
intercepts remain to be assayed.
Take what you need, leave the rest.
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Member
hi,sid, both igo and mcr are looking good,not the 100% overnight upside,but little risk,cheers pago.
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Hi Sid
IGO does look good and the share price is going for it,(maybe somthing in the takeover rumour late August) unfortunately I sold all my IGO between $1.45 and $1.63 before the last rally and bought extensively into MCR, which I will stick too.
Sort to medium term I(so do most brokers) rate MCR as a better share, e.g earnings per share will be the same\if not better than IGO.
19C plus on a 75 cent share is outstanding and they will find heaps more nickel.
AGM has a long way to go to pay a dividend and there are a heap of shares.
WSA what can you say, should be as good as JBM in a few years, outstanding
SMY pretty quiet as late, below brokers valuation.
FXR hard to read.
Topped up on BRW as a pure speculation play, starting to look a good little company, restructured, excellent management and Lionore starting to play a major role.
As for the nickel price who knows (no one knows), but great to see ironore in demand again with price rises forcast, which should lead to more s\s production.
Cheers [B)][} ]
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Member
Subscribers to this topic - - FYI
Becalmed as stainless woes cloud horizon
Metals Insider - 26 September 2005
MI WEEK IN REVIEW: In a week when so much activity on the LME and other commodity markets seemed to reflect the course of Hurricane Rita, nickel was a becalmed backwater for much of the time. This particular market was still recovering from the huge sell-off of the previous two weeks, although a deteriorating stainless steel picture is further clouding nickel's short-term price horizon.
In terms of price action, most of it took place on the Monday, when 3-month metal clawed its way back from the lows of $13,000 per tonne to the $13,500 level at the close.
That seemed to be a function of light short-covering from fund players. Our sources suggest that the CTA systematic fund community had collectively gone slightly short of nickel the previous week but by Tuesday the collective exposure was pretty much flat. The natural response to the $2,000 collapse from highs above $15,000 was aided and abetted by strength in copper, which roared higher as a new wave of fund money poured into the red metal.
The lack of genuine buy-side activity was then evident to see, with nickel tracking sideways for much of the rest of the week, a “billy-no-mates” among the LME metals. The lack of action is best summed up by the fact that it closed at $13,500 on three days—Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. Only on Friday did it edge up quietly to $13,650 at the close, a weekly gain of $500 that can only be described as corrective.
More movement was seen in the nearby spreads than in the 3-month price. The benchmark cash-3s spread contracted from $220 backwardation at Monday's close to $125 at Friday's.
The easing structure of the nearby market is a direction function of the liquidity currently being injected into LME-registered stocks. They have been up every day for the last two weeks, despite some days of relatively high drawdowns and it's worth noting the extent of the stocks rebuild so far in the third quarter—up 5,046 from 6,882t on July 1.
Stainless Deterioration
Where's all this metal coming from? Well, you don't need to be a rocket-scientist to draw the obvious conclusions from what is happening in the stainless steel sector—the single biggest end-use sector for nickel.
The shake-out in nickel prices appears to have been accompanied by a full realization of just how much of a correction has been taking place in the once-booming stainless sector.
Even before we look at events in the third quarter, it's worth highlighting the report released last week by the International Stainless Steel Forum.
Its figures covered only the first half of this year but showed a significant slowdown in stainless production even during the second quarter. It estimates that stainless output growth more than halved to 3.6% year-on-year in Q2 from 7.6% in Q1.
But even that stark comparison only tells half the story. By region, only Asia recorded any growth at all in the first half of 2005—up 13.4% year-on-year—with production in Western Europe falling 0.4%, that in the Americas by 2.2% and that in Central/Eastern Europe by 24.7%.
And even when it comes to Asia, growth is largely confined to just two countries— China , which registered phenomenal growth of 54% year-on-year in the first half of 2005, and India , which saw production rise 10%.
That Chinese growth rate—a key plank of nickel bulls' arguments for sustained higher prices—is so strong it appears to risk destabilizing the global stainless market. Last week also brought suggestions by Chinese officials that at current expansion rates, the country will not only become fully self-sufficient in stainless within a couple of years but could in fact turn to net exporter.
The impact is already being felt in stainless pricing, which brings us to the Q3 cutbacks in stainless production. Just about every major Western producer has reduced output this quarter and s
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Junior Member
3 good announcements from IGO in the last 2 days.
1. High Grade Extensions to McLeay Nickel Resource
2. Significant nickel sulphide mineralisation encountered
3. Dalwallinu Gold Project - High Grade Virgin Gold Discovery
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...de=W&x=29&y=13
Take what you need, leave the rest.
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Great announcements from most companies.
Unfortunately the Nickel price is a major worry!
It did exactly the same this time last year, as a caution I reduced holding and bought gold stock, hold cash, will wait and see.
News from the USA is quite scary and as everyone knows you can not trust a word they say!
IGO holding up well, someone buying ??? Huge potential and sneaky feeling take over under way.
Has gold tenants and as Sid said previously, big new strike!
MCR dropped a little, but no debt, cash and no great out goings. Were under valued anyway. Plenty of gold to be found in their tenants around Widgemoolta.
FXR is hard to read into what really is happening, reports coming out self promoting and misleading.
AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage.
SMY great new discovery, but 32 million debt.
JBM no great worry, The best as far as mines goes.
WSA has another great jewel.
Cheers [B)][}]
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