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  1. #41
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    Bit of a disapointment today, South Canterbury Finance has anounced that it is not going to be listed.

  2. #42
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Maybe just as well as it didn't list .... initial rsponse would have been a soaring shareprice but may have ended up in tears

    If what gaynor says today http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10583721 is an indication of what is going on i am glad i have gotten any cash in them ....

    All those related party loans is ominious (70% of all loans) and my initial reaction of this outfit recently buying farms from related parties was a shiver down my spine ..... like were these farms bought at the height of the market etc.

    The web of companies involved with SCF is a lot broader than i had imagined (never really studied it anyway) .... like 75% ownership of Kelt Capital (Sam Kelts drunken antics over the years are well publicised and sponsership of $2m horse races and provincial rugby teams always seem to be ego trips), Helicopter Line and strange names like Plum Duff Ltd

    All good stuff that Hubbard is handing out personal guarantees and says he will satnd behind the company ...... but investors have put a lot of faith in one man

  3. #43
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    One of those loans is a $15m one to Dunvegan Seadown .... a $1,000 company controlled by the CEO

  4. #44
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    Oh imho what a mess, remember that the 250 year old Bank of Scotland went bust in 18 months with "flash Harry "type management.
    You cannot f@rt against thunder!!!

  5. #45
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    These must be a good buy at a 40 cents

    SCF 09.42% Perpetual Preference Shares (SCFHA)

    Colin .... interested
    Last edited by winner69; 11-07-2009 at 04:16 PM.

  6. #46
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    Gidday
    Brian Gaynor has it wrong, They are 40 cents per share, They pay a "dividend" that is fixed & reset every year.
    Last edited by Contrarian; 11-07-2009 at 04:16 PM.
    Rgds

  7. #47
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    Winner I remember you and I both said some years ago that no finance coy was big enough not to fail, including SCF and Hanover.

    Well Hanover has gone and SCF is not looking good with all these dairy conversion related party loans.

    Would not like to be a shareholder.

  8. #48
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    I agree with Winner and Cap.
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 11-07-2009 at 04:27 PM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #49
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Contrarian View Post
    Gidday
    Brian Gaynor has it wrong, They are 40 cents per share, They pay a "dividend" that is fixed & reset every year.
    Correct Contrarian a 'share' .... 40 cents odd for a 9.25 cents 'dividend' (this years rate) for a rock solid finance company not too bad

    NZDX bit clumsy with their quotes .... reading it quickly suggests a yield

  10. #50
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    Gaynor has it mostly right , but the 40% Pref yield is poorly researched nonsense. The 'prefs' were sold at $1 each raising $120m a couple years ago. Ouch now 40c offered! That does partly reflect a reduced yield (they pay 2.3% above bill rate from memory) but is mainly shareholder panic , buyers are few.

    Anyone touting Hubbard as a saviour (incl S&P) is seriously deluded. Hubbards main 'wealth' is in his holding of Southbury Ltd shares , and if SCF collapses , so does Southbury , and so does Hubbard , no matter how honourable he may be.

    My pick is SCF will try to merge with Southbury and raise capital in the merged entity , there will certainly be a downgrade to 'junk bonds' and I cant think of any potential suitor who would perhaps inject the $250m or so required , unless perhaps the Govt or a seriously discounted sharemarket listing?

    Wonder how Lachie Mcleod is feeling with a $15 loan from SCF secured by Southbury shares that are likely worth only 50% of their value now?? A rather large incentive to perhaps be a tad 'economical' with the truth as CEO?

    This could get real ugly , imo.

    Misc

  11. #51
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Is SCF govt guaranteed?
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  12. #52
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    Is SCF govt guaranteed?
    Yes ... it does have a Govt quarantee

  13. #53
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    Default "Is SCF govt guaranteed? "

    Possibly .. well until Oct 2010? So the Govt wont want it 'falling over' however there must now be doubts about disclosure when the Govt accepted SCF into the gaurantee scheme late last year as it would appear from the a/c's to 30th June 09 that impairments have been significant for most of the financial year. This may give the Govt 'wriggle room' however I would expect the Govt to perhaps at least underwrite a discounted sharemarket listing or similar to try and make the problem go away?
    It all comes down to how badly the loan book is impaired , and when a reasonable person would have considered provisioning appropriate , imo.

    M

  14. #54
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    There does seem to be a certain amount of arrogance in this fellow Lachie

    McLeod dismissed concerns over these arrangements as "great bloody gossip from The Viaduct".

    and

    "Some of our related-party lending is the best lending we know," he said.

    and

    And everything we do, we talk very closely with our auditors [Timaru-based accounting firm Woodnorth Myers], our trustee [Trustees Executors] and of course now we've got a new partner called Treasury [monitoring the Deposit Guarantee Scheme]."


    from
    http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/4940697

  15. #55
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    What does the Government guarantee actually guurantee ..... everything owing to creditors or just certain things

  16. #56
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    Depositors funds only ... that does not incl offshore depositors or pref shares...imo

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    What does the Government guarantee actually guurantee ..... everything owing to creditors or just certain things
    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/guarantee This link may be useful.

  18. #58
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    I wonder if there are any additional exposure problems now that PGW have issued a profit downgrade...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  19. #59
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    Here you go ..... PGW , Southbury and SCF merge creating a mega Ag/Finance Group (not dissimilar to Wrightson before they sold their Finance division to Rabo) with the Crown as 19.9% shareholder .... with non-performing property loans 'quarantined' in an 'Adbro' style Co owned by the Crown and Hubbard?

    M

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misc View Post
    Here you go ..... PGW , Southbury and SCF merge creating a mega Ag/Finance Group (not dissimilar to Wrightson before they sold their Finance division to Rabo) with the Crown as 19.9% shareholder .... with non-performing property loans 'quarantined' in an 'Adbro' style Co owned by the Crown and Hubbard?

    M
    IT doesnt matter what kind of mud you put in a pot or how you stir it, it is still mud. I assume if SCF goes it will drag down PGW also?
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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