Gartley/Butterfly patterns

[dumbass]

gartley on eur chf

[arco]

Not FX but SP500 - spotted on Elite

Just for those that want to study the pattern.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attach...postid=1611243

[roddy]

Hi ARCO/DB
in terms of the d point on the final leg, is 1.63 a more reliable prz than 1.27.do you trade the 127 or wait and see whether it hits 1.63 as in sp100 example

[roddy]

ARCO/DB
continuing from my previous post heres a thought , the EURO at present is at 1.27 level and has had one down day,yesterday,what would be confirmation that yes it is going to reverse from here?
cheers roddy

[dumbass]

my thoughts roddy on the euro are as follows

text book butterfly set up 1.27 xa 1.61 bc 127 ab=cd

key fib level is the 127xa

require a minimum ab =cd but preferably extended 127

bc projection least important but requires 1.61, 2, 2.24 and needs to compliment tight fib

levels of other parameters

the prz is a tight fib zone around 1.40

HOWEVER all this matters not one jot without confirmation , as perfect a set up as this is it can still only act as an alert and in no way guarantees anything.
so going short on this set up with only this pattern is in my mind risky

carney suggests waiting for a full test of all fib levels and terms this the terminal price bar , this defines the limits of the pattern and will be used as a stop loss.
the price should test all fib levels on initial test and then reverse

i would be reaching for indicators to give more info

the dinapoli that arco suggested can be used as follows

the lower window is a macd this is set to confirm main trend , the upper stochastic is set more sensitivly to give entry signals as retracements occur against main trend, (weak hands bailing)

the best cross is a right angle cross , the stochastic cross will most likely print before macd
neither have crossed yet .

q stick not showing any divergence or even break of simple trend line.

my ramblings roddy for what its worth

[arco]

Roddy

The Harami formation suggest that the previous trend is coming
to an end, and therefore upside potential could certainly be limited now.

Harami are risky as a reversal confirmation (e.g. see 13/9), however
they must be viewed as a warning sign. BFs can always go to 1618, so no rush to enter here unless you are prepared to place a big SL. There will be plenty of pips when we get solid confirmation, and even if you miss Wave 1, wave 3 is always the big move.

I have dual Gann overhead circa 4035........ Oscillator is not in divergence.

An aggressive tactic would be to sell limit short at Gann. This is HIGH RISK, and
occasionally fails when the action heads higher to the next Gann. Test it out on a demo for fun maybe.

rgds - arco

[arco]

DA/Roddy

Something else to consider/remember is the confluence of BFs at this point. Particularly pay attention to the monster from 2005/2006 that terminates in this region and slightly higher. (see old charts on the Euro thread). And our recent bullish hatchling from mid-june.

Rome wasnt built in a day....so a little patience may be required until the bulls become bears.

GTA -arco

[roddy]

ARCO/DB

was fortunate enough to be watching just as EURO broke 3999 up 50 pips ,next target hopefully 161 level,see if i have enough fortitude to stay in trade until it starts to weaken
roddy

[peat]

A 30 sec bar short term gartley ?

[peat]

or a 1 minute bearish gartley on the DOW seemed to do better.