MCH Chart

[Phaedrus]

I was surprised to see aa thinks that "MCH looks reasonable for up side potential...".

All in the eye of the beholder I suppose, but I see a stock in an obvious downtrend and going nowhere at all longterm. There are not too many stocks below what they were 5 years ago, or below their listing price after 11 years.

Anyhow, this post is not about bagging aa. His mention of Mister Chips got me looking at the chart and I noticed a very interesting thing. The On Balance Volume in the chart below clearly shows when the "smart money" bought and sold this stock. It is generally accepted that this shows the actions of those in the know - insiders, institutions or other big players with a lot of money and access to a lot of information. Now, take a look at the trendline-break Buy and Sell signals. They are on exactly the same dates as the big buy/sell transactions. Isn't that spooky possums?
A mere coincidence, or could it be that "those in the know" are simply ordinary TA's using trendline breaks to time their entries and exits, but in numbers large enough to affect the market?


(Chart re-posted using different web host)

[k1w1]

Please post certificates to verify orchard ownership and parents death, or I wont believe you...

[Phaedrus]

Aa,
We seem to be on different planets. The last time MCH traded at 79 cents was 5 years ago, in 2000. A 4.66% mini bounce? Where?? - there were no trades at all yesterday! Is it possible that you have got the ticker wrong and we are talking about different stocks?

To make money on falling stocks requires quick, decisive action - both buying and selling. As you say, your style is "in.. up.. and out, despite the long term trends". Such an approach necessitates the choice of very liquid stocks because you usually have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The current MCH quotes are 83 cents bid, 99 cents ask. A spread like that makes it very, very difficult to make money whatever your system. You might want to be "in.. up.. and out", but MCH has at times gone for 2 months without a single trade!!!!! Look how easy it would be to get stuck with this turkey! Then there is the question of volume. MCH is extremely extremely lightly traded - often only a few hundred shares change hands over the course of a week. Unless you want to buy or sell only a very small number of shares, you can't even hope to be "in.. up.. and out" - the market depth simply isn't there.

To my mind, MCH is not a good stock for anyone, but it must be a particularly bad choice for someone with your active approach to trading. Yet out of all the NZX stocks, you have identified MCH as the sole worthwhile buy at the moment!

[Snow Leopard]

MCH went ex-div on Monday and but has not traded this week. I think it has confused a few data providers.
Findata have it closing at 79.3cps monday and back at 83cps tuesday!

[BRICKS]

Well BRICKS is back in Mr Chips at good prices so Happy eating..[8D]

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
To my mind, MCH is not a good stock for anyone

Except perhaps if you are a former sharebroker and former Chancellor of the University of Otago. However, to the best of my knowledge, only one person fits that criteria. And you'd perhaps still need to define "good" as purchased cheaply a long time ago, and with not much chance of on-selling.

[Lizard]

Well thanks for the suggestion aa. I've looked at MCH a few times over the years when it came up on the "value" radar, but couldn't find much driving the growth, so might be okay for your short trading timeframe but not so good for longer term investment.

Just getting the feeling that NZ stocks may be going to fall away a bit shortly. Not following alot at the moment, but the ones I am suggest even those with stronger fundamentals looking forward are easing off. Don't think it will be showing up on the NZX50 chart yet though. Anyone else got a view?

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Well BRICKS is back in Mr Chips at good prices so Happy eating..[8D]

Well all the boys are at work now making those fry`s cant you sense them pop down to KFC and get some.. [8D]

[Snow Leopard]

Tigers are stripey not spotted.
We need good eye-sight so that we can select and hunt our food.
There, in the distance, you see a french fry, separated from the main heard....

[k1w1]

pity that tigers aren't good spellers PT