GEN - A ski slope

[willy_wonker]

Thanks for the info MS. Just wonder why there are no board changes or restructuring to reduce expenditure? With nearly 10 million in revenue, there could be some margin there for at least a small profit.

[marinesalvor]

already some restructures and cuts - a pity as there was good scientific talent there

and agrigenesis is an attempt at structural change

[donner]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

old style corporate raiding is alive and well in biotech WW - get in with cash, buy IP - fire the expensive but paralytic staff and ship the IP to your own labs - hell of a lot cheaper than doing in house r&d

I agree with you MS that the medical research side is a pup. In fact even a leech maybe now. I say this because your comments seem to indicate that that side is their subject. But what I have been concentrating on is the Agrigenesis business.

And your comments above are probably more on the money than even you have realized. Have you considered Horizon2 as perhaps the vehicle to do the raiding? Just what is RBC going to do with TEN's capital repayment? Why is GPG sitting on the board of RBC? Why is Wrightsons on the board of GEN? Could the medical business be sold ( or merged with another entity as suggested last week by GEN) as way to offset any entry in to GEN? What commercial opportunites and revenues does Arborgen actually have?

Are these the type of questions you mean MS? I have addressed these and others and have come up with a totally different conclusion from you.

I guess the real value will be the price H2 or whoever it is that ABNis stitching a deal with pays for entry. Though I suspect that will be at a discount rather than a premium.

[marinesalvor]

Hi Donner - I think you ascribe motives, intent and strategic thinking to companies that are nowhere near them in practicality

What products (be specific) do Agrigenesis have that are within 3 years of earning their keep in the market - dont just say "Arborgen" cos you know that wont as well as I do

we both agree that any price ABN's get will be a profit for them but a massive discount for GEN shareholders

[willy_wonker]

Is Agrigensis current making a profit? If not, then who would invest their money after the disaster of GEN? I have a feeling that Agrigensis IPO would not go off well.

I still dont know how to value GEN. They dont have any IPs of any value. I assume one can only value it based on DCF which is in the negative.

[MeNoBatty]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

Is Agrigensis current making a profit? If not, then who would invest their money after the disaster of GEN? I have a feeling that Agrigensis IPO would not go off well.

I still dont know how to value GEN. They dont have any IPs of any value. I assume one can only value it based on DCF which is in the negative.

IMHO, NZ will not see another serious Biotech raising unless there is a freaken miracle. Market too small and not able to absorb speculative IPO's like this. Still cant believe GEN got it away the first time. Any NZ Biotech worth its salt will have to go to Aussie to raise serious cashola from public. ASX has history of speculative mining stocks with highly subjective forecasting to base DCF on. Witness the current rash of IPOs going on accross the ditch. GEN need to focus attention on Aussie partnership.

Only an industry insider would know if there was any value in AgriGen. Wrightsons should show some direction. NZ has great research but no people here capable of taking it to consumers.

[donner]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

Hi Donner - I think you ascribe motives, intent and strategic thinking to companies that are nowhere near them in practicality

What products (be specific) do Agrigenesis have that are within 3 years of earning their keep in the market - dont just say "Arborgen" cos you know that wont as well as I do

we both agree that any price ABN's get will be a profit for them but a massive discount for GEN shareholders

Perhaps I do but if you get it right more times than you get it wrong, then you are ahead. No?

For products can I refer you to slides 30,31 and 32 in the last press release. In that same presentation note slides 25 and 28 where the replacement value of their assets is $50m (25) and how close they are to commercializaton of products (28).

Put that $50m together with some figures of valuation for Arborgen, of which GEN owns 5%, from RBC's reports, do some maths and you will see a different picture emerge in terms of value.

[zyreon]

*considers allocating some risk capital for a forray into this issue*

Hopefully the green party (eco-terrorist technophobic neuronally deficient hippies) will not bother this fine institution.

[marinesalvor]

donner - one thing I have learnt in the biotech game... never ever believe what is released by the company - of course they think cool things about themselves
where we make money here, aus and usa is adding the appropriate discount factor to burblings from people like Jimmy watson - I have, plus my analysis based on products and markets makes me certain GEN is a loser

you still havent told me what products can turn in a surplus within a couple of years?? - ok - have a go at a 5 year timeframe...

[donner]

I have if you care to look at the slides. A tip is ...available in 2004. Whether or not it is a success and sells well, who knows. But thats like anything I guess.

For a moment, lets assume you are right. The company will never amount to anything. In that case what will happen? Have you considered break up value?