PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Balance]

BAIC have no particular reason for the latest increase in their holding, as they had a blocking stake already. Unless that is they just saw it as a good investment, or they really are planning to launch a takeover bid. I am not expecting a good result from PGW for the year because of the effects of drought and the shut down of the live livestock auctions through Covid. Maybe a poor result will be weakness that BAIC is looking for before pouncing? What I did find interesting was that the latest 1% block of shares acquired looks like it has not come from Agria (unless Agria make a counter declaration in the next few days I suppose). I worked out my own holding price for PGW shares is now $1.70. That is mainly through owning the shares for a long time rather than any clever Covid scare buying. I reckon $2.70 is near fair value for an average year of trading. So I won't be accepting a takeover offer at $2.70, despite the potential gains I would crystallise by doing so. Like others have commented, I prefer to see PGW remain listed on the NZX. BAIC could make a 'lowball' offer to take out the Agria stake that would be rejected as inadequate by an independent valuation report. That would in turn mean that minority shareholders would be foolish not to continue holding their shares at today's prices. This would be my preferred outcome.

SNOOPY

Good assessment, Snoopy.

My thoughts are very much that negotiations are taking place between Agria & BAIC even while we watch the sp action from the sidelines.

Agria's stance imo will be very much that they have 44% and will deliver control to BAIC when they sell to them. So there is CONTROL PREMIUM which must be paid.

Why would they be willing to settle at $2.75 initial offer when BAIC was prepared to pay $2.75 for a 10% blocking stake? A Control premium is worth a lot more!

One suspects that $3.00+ will be a more acceptable figure to Agria.

Meanwhile, that being the case, BAIC is happy to pick up stock in the market at $2.70 or thereabouts - still 9% to go before it triggers a takeover offer at 20%.

Like many of you, I do prefer Wrightson to continue to be listed as well - excellent exposure to NZ's real #1 industry (Agriculture) and what an outstanding dividend yield!

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-count...ectid=12342319

Real estate side looks like doing well post the lockdown.

[sb9]

Could well be $3+ by the time FY results are in. Current sell side has been dried up for whatever reason..

[Balance]

Could well be $3+ by the time FY results are in. Current sell side has been dried up for whatever reason..

BAIC and Agria could reach a deal any day. As mentioned before, Agria is delivering control to BAIC with its 44% so expect at least $3.

[Balance]

BAIC and Agria could reach a deal any day. As mentioned before, Agria is delivering control to BAIC with its 44% so expect at least $3.

Could well be $3+ by the time FY results are in. Current sell side has been dried up for whatever reason..

$2.80 bid - if it's BAIC buying, they are showing their hand.

If it's not BAIC, then BAIC/Agria deal could be very close.

[sb9]

$2.80 bid - if it's BAIC buying, they are showing their hand.

If it's not BAIC, then BAIC/Agria deal could be very close.

Either way win win

[percy]

Either way win win

I would go so far as to say we are "well positioned."................................lol.

[Balance]

Sell side looks extremely thin indeed.

Looks like the institutions may be canvassed as to what a fair takeover price is?

Meanwhile, government is going to be pumping a lot of funds and resources into the agricultural sector - after putting the sector into the back burner in its first 2 years in office.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...-sector-by-44b

[black knat]

A fair takeover offer would be?.....$3.25?

[Balance]

A fair takeover offer would be?.....$3.25?

Could be.

The agribusiness sector in Australasia is back in favor and you just have to look at Elders on ASX - its share price is at a 10 year high and YTD is up 59%.

Happy to run with the PGW story, takeover or no takeover.