No.
One thing you would not have to worry about is the capital gain tax.
Most probably be able to claim a capital loss.!
That’s if you sell .. I see a very low inflation cycle over the next few decades another GFC and rates will head lower ..some countries it now costs u to have money on the bank ...
Now the question for me is will PGW still want to rent in 10yrs if I had crystal ball and knew they would be there for full 25yr lease rights it’s a great buy
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
That’s if you sell .. I see a very low inflation cycle over the next few decades another GFC and rates will head lower ..some countries it now costs u to have money on the bank ...
Now the question for me is will PGW still want to rent in 10yrs if I had crystal ball and knew they would be there for full 25yr lease rights it’s a great buy
I think back to hundreds of 4-Square shops close to their customers.
Now days just a few Pak'N saves.
PGW have reps who call on their customers.Farmers are savvy users of the internet following grain and livestock prices.
They will not think twice about buying their supplies online,when cheaper.
I would expect the day of the "local" PGW store is nearly over.
Don't get caught when the music stops.
I think back to hundreds of 4-Square shops close to their customers.
Now days just a few Pak'N saves.
PGW have reps who call on their customers.Farmers are savvy users of the internet following grain and livestock prices.
They will not think twice about buying their supplies online,when cheaper.
I would expect the day of the "local" PGW store is nearly over.
Don't get caught when the music stops.
I here what your saying percy ..really one could say the same right across retail ..funny your saying about 4-Square shops as there was one right across the road from the PGG building I'm keen on..
As to farmers buying online ...sounds good in practice but you can imagine the logistics in some locations 500kms by road from say chch the deep south etc ....farmer needs some products asap ..he could travel to his local store 20mins away etc (the store I'm looking at is surrounded by many hundreds of farms in the deep south) and support his local cummunity store or buy from some guys he's never meet way up north ? and hope the freight company can find his farm down doz of gravel roads >>>
In talking with PGG staff at the store today they did laugh at the idea(on working out of chch one day etc) ..the manager did state no way they would be getting closed down with the amount of money they bring in for PGW and see's no reason why PGG wouldn't be there in 20-30yrs+ ...farmers love to support their local store ..
Last edited by JBmurc; 01-12-2017 at 09:36 PM.
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
I here what your saying percy ..really one could say the same right across retail ..funny your saying about 4-Square shops as there was one right across the road from the PGG building I'm keen on..
As to farmers buying online ...sounds good in practice but you can imagine the logistics in some locations 500kms by road from say chch the deep south etc ....farmer needs some products asap ..he could travel to his local store 20mins away etc (the store I'm looking at is surrounded by many hundreds of farms in the deep south) and support his local cummunity store or buy from some guys he's never meet way up north ? and hope the freight company can find his farm down doz of gravel roads >>>
In talking with PGG staff at the store today they did laugh at the idea(on working out of chch one day etc) ..the manager did state no way they would be getting closed down with the amount of money they bring in for PGW and see's no reason why PGG wouldn't be there in 20-30yrs+ ...farmers love to support their local store ..
Yes it is the same right across retail.Travel around NZ or Aussie, and note the huge number of empty shops in small towns.
Now that is interesting about the amount of money they bring in, as I have never seen customers at Oamaru,Greymouth,Palmerston,Hawarden or Cheviot stores.The odd ute at Amberley,and Timaru.
I guess the 4-square staff said the same things twenty years ago.
Watch PGW model in Uruguay as they are starting with a cleanish sheet of paper.
Most books and greeting cards are supplied to NZ stores from Australia.
Freighting from ChCh to Mossburn ,piece of cake.Saves having to hold 40 stores [or more] stock in the SI. So 2 or 3 staff at each store,rates ,rent,power for each store.Adds up to closures.
Yes it is the same right across retail.Travel around NZ or Aussie, and note the huge number of empty shops in small towns.
Now that is interesting about the amount of money they bring in, as I have never seen customers at Oamaru,Greymouth,Palmerston,Hawarden or Cheviot stores.The odd ute at Amberley,and Timaru.
I guess the 4-square staff said the same things twenty years ago.
Watch PGW model in Uruguay as they are starting with a cleanish sheet of paper.
Most books and greeting cards are supplied to NZ stores from Australia.
Freighting from ChCh to Mossburn ,piece of cake.Saves having to hold 40 stores [or more] stock in the SI. So 2 or 3 staff at each store,rates ,rent,power for each store.Adds up to closures.
Yes another one is home building store's ...placemakers,carters etc how much money do they cost to run ? , travel stores ....flight centre who books hoildays in store these days ?
Talking of the "4-square" the one across the road from the PGG building .. friendly staff ....asked how busy PGG was across the road ..she stated it was usually pretty busy (of course tiny rural town busy compared to city busy etc)
I noticed the PGG store had 5 staff ! all looked pretty busy .... just 200m down the road in this one horse rural town a huge
RD1 recently built 2011
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
How does PGW fare in really dry, if not drought, conditions
Looking pretty dry in a lot of the country
Horticulture seems to be going gangbusters with some fruit crops maturing the earliest ever. All good for the winemakers with more flavour in the grapes. There is a backlog in repairing pasture from the wet winter and soggy spring. This is still to feed through to rural supply companies, but maybe we PGW shareholders will have to wait until Autumn 2018 now?
Short term more supplementary feed sales to feed the animals farmers keep. While the PGW saleyards clip the ticket on the stock that is sold, with the farmers suffering with the depressed sale prices of the animals. Longer term less money in the farmers pocket is not good for PGW though. A drought will put the need for irrigation foremost in the farmers mind (good for PGW Water), but will the banks comes to the party to finance such irrigation? I am predicting tough times for irrigation going forwards.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 04-12-2017 at 11:26 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
Horticulture seems to be going gangbusters with some fruit crops maturing the earliest ever. All good for the winemakers with more flavour in the grapes. There is a backlog in repairing pasture from the wet winter and soggy spring. This is still to feed through to rural supply companies, but maybe we PGW shareholders will have to wait until Autumn 2018 now?
Short term more supplementary feed sales to feed the animals farmers keep. While the PGW saleyards clip the ticket on the stock that is sold, with the farmers suffering with the depressed sale prices of the animals. Longer term less money in the farmers pocket is not good for PGW though. A drought will put the need for irrigation foremost in the farmers mind (good for PGW Water), but will the banks comes to the party to finance such irrigation? I am predicting tough times for irrigation going forwards.
SNOOPY
Some other favourable conditionsL Feed grain prices increasing - nearly $400t, weak NZD, high lamb prices 6.50kg, high beef prices <5.50kg. Just some drought risk.
Also the ocean around NZ is up to 6 degrees warmer than usual, I don't know what this means for weather. It does mean I can bring out the budgie smugglers.
Some other favourable conditionsL Feed grain prices increasing - nearly $400t, weak NZD, high lamb prices 6.50kg, high beef prices <5.50kg. Just some drought risk.
Also the ocean around NZ is up to 6 degrees warmer than usual, I don't know what this means for weather. It does mean I can bring out the budgie smugglers.
Wow 6 degrees warmer than usual! Warm seas means more wind. Summer is going to be windy, wet and hot according to the forecasters.
Some other favourable conditions Feed grain prices increasing - nearly $400t, weak NZD, high lamb prices 6.50kg, high beef prices <5.50kg. Just some drought risk.
High feed grain prices are good for farmers who grow the grain but bad for farmers who have to buy it in! So overall, for a company exposed to all sectors of the agricultural economy (like PGW) probably a neutral effect. I think I heard on one of those early morning weekend farming radio shows that stock prices are coming back significantly in those areas where the grass stopped growing (Canterbury and Otago IIRC).
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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Originally Posted by percy
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