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  1. #4396
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Is the seeds sale still a goer? SP suggests not.
    om mani peme hum

  2. #4397
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Is the seeds sale still a goer? SP suggests not.
    The assumption here is that the seeds sale will be 'value accretive' to all shareholders. Have you considered that the seed sale will 'save' Agria from their immediate cash problems, but be negative for shareholders in the medium term? After all former CEO's Mark Dewdney's 'One PGW' strategy was heralded as the way forwards at the time and it is unclear why this would have changed.

    Another possibility is that although the two largest shareholders (Agria and Ngai Tahu) have rearranged their shareholdings to the extent that combined, they still hold the same combined percentage of shares as before the rearrangement exercise, something has changed. The seed business is no longer 'foreign controlled'. So now the Danish takeover means that the seed business will pass into foreign control from ostensibly NZ control. It could be easier for the OIO to turn down such a deal now, whereas before control was simply passing from one foreign owner to another.

    SNOOPY
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  3. #4398
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The assumption here is that the seeds sale will be 'value accretive' to all shareholders. Have you considered that the seed sale will 'save' Agria from their immediate cash problems, but be negative for shareholders in the medium term? After all former CEO's Mark Dewdney's 'One PGW' strategy was heralded as the way forwards at the time and it is unclear why this would have changed.

    Another possibility is that although the two largest shareholders (Agria and Ngai Tahu) have rearranged their shareholdings to the extent that combined, they still hold the same combined percentage of shares as before the rearrangement exercise, something has changed. The seed business is no longer 'foreign controlled'. So now the Danish takeover means that the seed business will pass into foreign control from ostensibly NZ control. It could be easier for the OIO to turn down such a deal now, whereas before control was simply passing from one foreign owner to another.

    SNOOPY
    Actually defination of overseas control = major shareholding of 25% or more (in the absence of a local major 25% or greater stake).

  4. #4399
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Actually defination of overseas control = major shareholding of 25% or more (in the absence of a local major 25% or greater stake).
    Thanks for that. Does this mean that the New Zealand OIO forcing Agria to reduce its stake' in PGW from 50.2% to 46.6% is just the beginning of a process to reduce the Agria stake to below 25%? If what you are telling us is correct Balance, and I have no reason to doubt you, then it would seem that Agria reducing its stake' in PGW from 50.2% to 46.6% has no real significance - on its own. There could be a book build going on right now to reduce that stake further. That could be a good enough reason alone to explain the soft PGW share price. Furthermore if that is the reason for the PGW share price fall, it doesn't necessarily mean the sale of the seed business is off?

    SNOOPY
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  5. #4400
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    This you Snoopy?

    Notice of Acquisition of Shares


    "PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW) intends to acquire certain shares from one shareholder pursuant to section 112 of the Companies Act 1993 (the Act). The relevant shareholder voted all of their shares in PGW against the special resolution in relation to the sale of all of PGW’s shares in PGG Wrightson Seeds Holdings Limited to DLF Seeds A/S, which was approved on 30 October 2018. The relevant shareholder subsequently exercised their minority buy-out rights pursuant to Section 110 of the Act."

    Must admit I did not know we could do this.
    om mani peme hum

  6. #4401
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  7. #4402
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    thanks for that
    om mani peme hum

  8. #4403
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    PGW share price on 03/08/2018 before seed business sale deal announced: 64c.

    PGW share price on 06/08/2018 immediately after seed business sale deal announced: 69c.

    PGW share price on Friday 05/10/2018 after the market has had some time to think about the implications of the seed business sale: 61c.

    So as the NZX50 reaches new highs, the value of PGW shares fall. Is this an indication that the market sees this deal as 'value destroying'?
    On 9th January a 'dissenting to the demerger' shareholder received a full payout on their 9,724 PGW shares of 58c each. I am not clear that this is a result of an 'independent valuation' just before the demerger offer was made. But it does seem to confirm that the board does not work for the benefit of all shareholders. This looks like proof, if any was needed, that the seeds division demerger has destroyed shareholder wealth.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 10-01-2019 at 02:49 PM.
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  9. #4404
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Thanks for that. Does this mean that the New Zealand OIO forcing Agria to reduce its stake' in PGW from 50.2% to 46.6% is just the beginning of a process to reduce the Agria stake to below 25%? If what you are telling us is correct Balance, and I have no reason to doubt you, then it would seem that Agria reducing its stake' in PGW from 50.2% to 46.6% has no real significance - on its own. There could be a book build going on right now to reduce that stake further. That could be a good enough reason alone to explain the soft PGW share price. Furthermore if that is the reason for the PGW share price fall, it doesn't necessarily mean the sale of the seed business is off?
    At last the OIO news release is on their own website for all to read.

    https://www.linz.govt.nz/news/2018-1...gria-singapore

    I wonder what these 'penalty proceedings' will be? Can't the OIO release their own accusations? It does seem odd that the OIO can't comment further on what the charges they are taking to court are.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 23-01-2019 at 10:53 AM. Reason: updated link that had apparently moved
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  10. #4405
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    At last the OIO news release is on their own website for all to read.

    https://www.linz.govt.nz/news/2018-1...gria-singapore

    I wonder what these 'penalty proceedings' will be? Can't the OIO release their own accusations? It does seem odd that the OIO can't comment further on what the charges they are taking to court are.
    Interesting update from PGW with the announcement that the 'new' PGW Chairman , Joo Hai Lee, is to be removed from his position by the end of the financial year.

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329732

    Joo Hai Lee is listed as a 'non-independent director' appointed by Agria, by dint of being an independent director on the Agria board. Mr Lee is an accountant by trade, although a professional director these days. This coming de-appointment is significant, because it shows that the target of the OIOs review is no longer just Agria Chairman Alan Lai, but the whole of Agria. Is it now more likely that the OIO will now require Agria to place their PGW shares with new owners? And is a discounted placement across multiple new owners in the wind?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 23-01-2019 at 11:17 AM.
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  11. #4406
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    Looks as though the seeds sale is well on the way.

  12. #4407
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    The Commerce Commission sounds like stopping the deal so it's back to the drawing board for Wrightson if that happens.

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...le-to-dlf.html

    "The commission said the analysis of current market shares probably understates the importance of DLF's research and development programme, which has . successfully developed novel ryegrass endophytes and high-performing ryegrass cultivars specifically for New Zealand conditions

    "Our preliminary view is that DLF is a close competitor to PGW Seeds in the market for the production and supply of ryegrass and is generating competitive tension which may not be replicated by other competitors that have relatively small market shares," Commerce Commission senior investigator Andy Gallagher said in the letter.

    Because it takes 10 to 15 years to get a product ready for commercial release, the regulator said it was unlikely a new entrant could constrain the enlarged entity.

    The commission said it's also assessing whether imported turf seeds are a viable competitor to the combined business."
    It looks like on further investigation by the Commerce Commission, that DLFs own program 'to develop novel ryegrass endophytes and high-performing ryegrass cultivars specifically for New Zealand conditions' was not that successful. They have also noted that this ineffective product development has not increased the tension in the market so it doesn't matter if the PGW seed unit is brought 'in house' by DLF to squash their own failed product. Next by using GE techniques, new competitive cultivars can be produced in a couple of years, not fifteen . And finally if it all turns to custard for NZ farmers, they can buy their own cultivars from overseas!

    Good stuff commerce commission! You must be right because the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission agrees with you. And now the OIO is the sole significant pillar to be knocked over in the process of privatising decades of NZ taxpayer subsidised seed investment for greedy PGW shareholders!

    Having topped up my PGW shareholding over the last couple of months with two baskets of shares, first at 51c and then 48c, I can feel my wallet bulging already. My greed triumphant over our farmers need! Ha ha!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 14-02-2019 at 01:20 PM.
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  13. #4408
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    Snoops ...the way the share price is going today seems the market thinks PGW is worth heaps by selling the seeds division ...or is me market just relieved this might just happen now.
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  14. #4409
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Snoops ...the way the share price is going today seems the market thinks PGW is worth heaps by selling the seeds division ...
    The market doesn't like uncertainty Winner, and even at 55c the share price is still less than before the seed division sale was announced. I reckon if the seed sale is called off, the share price might bounce even more (upwards in case that wasn't clear).

    or is me market just relieved this might just happen now.
    You had better ask that question of yourself Winner! I always realised you were a big player. Didn't realise you controlled the whole thing though.

    SNOOPY
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  15. #4410
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    But if the seed division is losing money at NPAT level as suggested in the last update,I can't see the SP bouncing back up,if the seed sale is called off.It will be interesting to see the half year results in a couple of weeks.

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