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  1. #21
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    quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

    Plenty of Buy orders...thinning out on the Sell side...PGW is definitely heading up.

    I'm happy...
    Dont fall in love with it remember to get out when the time is right. It ought to trend up for a considerable period with the lower dollar, mad cow disease, bird flue,to name a few items that are influencing the sp. macdunk

  2. #22
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    I'll be holding long term.
    The growing middle class in asia are going to demand, and be able to afford, more than three bowls of rice a day from now on. There are not many countries in the world that produce huge food surpluses such as NZ does. More and more arable land is going to be used to grow crops for bio fuels around the world which means less land available to grow food crops leading to reduced supply and increased food prices.
    ,
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  3. #23
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    MICK, Never think you will hold long term even although it looks like a long term hold. I thought i was in this company long term but bailed out on my sell system then rebought back in. It certainly looks good fundamentely with the lower dollar plus the mad cow disease in the USA plus bird flue worries. If the sp rises to fast we might get another 15pc play at the top so dont stick them under the bed just yet. macdunk

  4. #24
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    Where's Phaedrus these days? We need another chart update!!

    FYA

  5. #25
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    quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

    Where's Phaedrus these days? We need another chart update!!

    I think you expect PHAEDRUS to give you a simple chart that explains all. It would be a difficult thing to post a meaningfull chart on this company. Lets take me for instance with my little play as an example. I bought PGG at $1-74 on sept 2004 before it amalginated with WRI i got extra shares in the new company for nothing plus all the dividends since then. To give out a simple chart means nothing unless everything fundamentely is accounted for.
    To draw a chart starting at $1-74 up to $2-20 {todays price] means very little unless dividends bonus shares whatever are counted. I would not expect PHAEDRUS to go into all the nitty gritty other than a chart on the sp which is only part of the story. macdunk

  6. #26
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    FYA4999 - here is a PGW chart for you. The 4 indicators shown here are all in good broad agreement and would currently have you holding this stock. Note how the OBV generated signals are much earlier than the rest - this is exactly what a "leading" indicator is supposed to do. Note also the sudden drop in the OBV right at the top of the uptrend as bigger holders (presumed to be the smart money) exited. Didn't they time that nicely? Bigger players are not invariably right of course, but it pays to keep an eye on what they are doing. Exactly the same phenomenon can be seen with other stocks - take a look at CAV for example - another exquisitely timed exit. It could be that these people know more than you and I - or perhaps they are just lucky.

    Duncan.
    Chart data is corrected for everything that has a quantifiable effect on the shareprice. Charts have therefore been corrected for share splits, bonus issues, capital distributions, new issues, stock consolidations etc.
    If you can identify a nitty or a gritty that you think has been missed, I would be interested to know its identity. An overlooked correction appears on the chart as an aprupt vertical step - playing hell with all technical indicators. TA would be worthless on stocks like GPG (regular bonus issues) or NZR (big dividends) unless the data were corrected for these events.

    Mick100. Yes, PGW did give a classical inverse "Head and Shoulders" formation - these are bullish as of course you know. I prefer to split these into their formative parts - a downtrend, a V reversal then an uptrend. Same thing though, whatever you call it.


  7. #27
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    PHAEDRUS, the two companies merged in oct 2005. PGG got a bonus issue of one share for every eight. Thats when PGW started up before that you had two sep companies with completely different prices. What companies fortunes does your chart follow PGG or WRI before the merger. Your chart only indicates PGW which was non existent at that time. The fortunes of both companies leading up to the merger and charts were nothing similar. MACDUNK

  8. #28
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    Thanks for the update Phaedrus
    .
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  9. #29
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    Duncan,
    Prices prior to the merger are based on corrected WRI data. That is how charts covering such a merger are usually presented. That is how Yahoo Finance handled it.

    If you feel that I am playing fast and loose with the data and do not trust this process, simply ignore all of the chart prior to 10/10/05. Guess what? You get the same signals, the same marked drop in the OBV, the same excellent OBV entry point in February etc etc.


  10. #30
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    Nice one Phaedrus...hope you post us an update when the Sell indicators are flashing too!

    [:o)]

    ps : MacDunk you've got a good point re the merger, but everything from Oct 2005 onwards refers to PGW, so its all good...we've got an uptrend.
    FYA

  11. #31
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    quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

    Duncan,
    Prices prior to the merger are based on corrected WRI data. That is how charts covering such a merger are usually presented. That is how Yahoo Finance handled it.

    If you feel that I am playing fast and loose with the data and do not trust this process, simply ignore all of the chart prior to 10/10/05. Guess what? You get the same signals, the same marked drop in the OBV, the same excellent OBV entry point in February etc etc.
    PHAEDRUS, Any chart or other form of analysis is only as good as its accuracy. Like I said i had PGG up to the merger and yet post a chart for a company that did not exist before the merger. It might be accurate after the merger but for a pgg holder Its totally useless. If they cant even get the name of the company right what other things do they overlook. I do like the way you post your charts but this one leaves a lot to be desired. macdunk

  12. #32
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    So it looks like Fonterra will be expanding its RD1 stores in the South Island. Products and services catering to the beef, sheep and cropping sectors to be introduced over time to complement RD1's existing strengths in dairy.
    What do sharetraders think?

    NZ's Fonterra in retail services deal with Landmark
    Monday May 22, 2006, 9:48 am
    WELLINGTON, May 22 (Reuters) - New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra Co-operative said on Monday it had reached a deal with Australia's Landmark to expand retail services to their rural customers.

    Landmark is the rural trading and services division of Australian national wheat exporter, AWB Ltd. (ASX: AWB.ax) .

    Under the new deal, a joint venture in New Zealand and an alliance in Australia will introduce new services like finance, insurance and real estate plus an expanded livestock sales service through Fonterra's RD1 stores in New Zealand and new Landmark Fonterra branded stores in Australia, the companies said in a joint statement.

    "The RD1 stores in New Zealand and the Landmark Fonterra outlets in Australia are destined to become the leading one-stop shop for all the supply needs of dairy farmers," RD1 Chief Executive John Lea said.

    Products and services catering to the beef, sheep and cropping sectors will be introduced over time to complement RD1's existing strengths in dairy.

    Fonterra, which has 51 RD1 stores in New Zealand, will expand the number of its stores in the South Island, while the Landmark Fonterra chain will intially begin with 11 outlets in Victoria in Australia before looking to expand.

    Landmark, which has 430 stores in Australia, will make a net investment of NZ$35-45 million ($22-28 million) in the joint venture.

    Unlisted Fonterra is owned by around 12,000 farmer shareholders and generates around 20 percent of New Zealand's exports and 7 percent of gross domestic product.

    ($1=NZ$=1.61)

  13. #33
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    Unusual volume and up 20 against the tide today, as it were. Didn't this get a broker downgrade on the back of the story above (NZ First Capital?)? So something bubbling away in the background? More Aussie poachers, perhaps?

  14. #34
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    quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer

    Unusual volume and up 20 against the tide today, as it were. Didn't this get a broker downgrade on the back of the story above (NZ First Capital?)? So something bubbling away in the background? More Aussie poachers, perhaps?
    Don't PGC and Craig Norgate's company (Rural Porfolio something) have a majority stake between them?
    om mani peme hum

  15. #35
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    You're quite right PT. I forgotten about that. Each also has pre-emptive rights to the other's holding. So just some portfolio activity then, you reckon?

  16. #36
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    PGG Wrightson cuts profit forecast by $3m to $27m

    Tuesday July 4, 2006
    By Martha McKenzie-Minifie


    PGG Wrightson has cut its profit forecast by 10 per cent, after bad weather in the South Island and delays in selling surplus property.

    New Zealand's largest rural service company, formed last year by Craig Norgate, yesterday announced it expected a net profit of around $27 million, after a $10 million deduction for amortisation, compared with a previous forecast of $30 million.

    The result included $7.5 million in one-off items, PGG Wrightson chief executive officer Barry Brook said.

    Shares in the company fell 22c to $2.00.

    Brook said a wet May and cold and snowy June in the South Island affected the company.

    "We've had reduced livestock activity and farmers haven't been spending to the same extent," said Brook. "The regrassing activities have been down and the wet weather impacted on the maize harvest in the North Island too."

    He said some property that became surplus through last year's merger of PGG and Wrightson had taken longer than expected to sell.

    Brook would not elaborate but said more detail would be available in the company's annual results announcement next month.

    Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Rodney Deacon was surprised at the size of the downgrade and said the company was previously "pretty adamant" about achieving its $30 million forecast.

    Deacon said there could be more bad weather, which could further affect the company's performance.

    Forsyth Barr analyst John Cairns said the announcement was not a surprise.

    "It is negative but then when you consider the trading environment - they are directly impacted by the climatic conditions, so it's to be expected in a company such as this."

    Cairns said the company's confirmation that synergies achieved through the merger of Pyne Gould Guinness and Wrightson were expected to exceed $25 million a year was positive.

    * Pyne Gould Corporation, an investment company which holds a stake in PGG Wrightson, yesterday announced it expected to report a year end operating profit above last year's result, notwithstanding more difficult trading conditions in the rural sector.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  17. #37
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

    MICK, Never think you will hold long term even although it looks like a long term hold. I thought i was in this company long term but bailed out on my sell system then rebought back in. It certainly looks good fundamentely with the lower dollar plus the mad cow disease in the USA plus bird flue worries. If the sp rises to fast we might get another 15pc play at the top so dont stick them under the bed just yet. macdunk
    Anyone out there with them under the bed?. It is a situation that was easy to work out. Bad weather worse than normal, before the dropping dollar got drip fed back to the farm. This is a dead certainty uptrend when the shock of winter wears off. This looks like a 20pc play coming up [plus dividends] in the next 12 months.
    macdunk

  18. #38
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    Does that mean you have recently bought back in and at what price?

    I recently sold at 2.19.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
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  19. #39
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    quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

    Does that mean you have recently bought back in and at what price?

    I recently sold at 2.19.
    No not so far i think there is a bit of downside left. macdunk

  20. #40
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

    quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

    Does that mean you have recently bought back in and at what price?

    I recently sold at 2.19.
    No not so far i think there is a bit of downside left. macdunk
    The last of the downside i think is over. The only other unresolved bad news is the deer velvet downtrend. The price dropped to far with the butter scare looks like the uptrend starts now. Whoever bought at under $2-00 is looking at a bargain. macdunk

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