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  1. #16
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    MICK, PHAEDRUS would with his system sold at about $2-20 on the sell indicator and bought back in at $1-85 on the buy indication. I prefer doing the fundamental evaluation at the buying bit. PGW was a fundamental screaming buy at the end of feb. They sold surplus properties then the dollar started to drop the company was under priced with a divi looming. As always A fundamentely good companies share price will go to high go sideways then drop to low. Your other company that you hold like this is POT which is at the beginning of a long slow uptrend. The forestry exports will be the fundametals behind that. macdunk
    app to PHAEDRUS if i got it wrong

  2. #17
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    It didn't break the downtrend until it went over $2.00 macdunk. It shot up to $2.10 then came back down to test the trendline at $2.00 and then it was away - perfect breakout
    Correct me if I'm wrong but did PGW put in an inverse H&S over the past couple of months.
    The chartists should be drooling over this one but they're nowhere to be seen - I'm disapointed.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  3. #18
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    MICK, I can only say what i did. I sold out at $2-20 average when it hit my time line in dec and bought at $1-85 in feb. I find charts mixed with a bit of common sense the way to go. My time line told me to get out my common sense told me that the share was underpriced buy back in. Tread lines is no way to buy a share fundamental analysis is. The tech side of it comes into its own at the sell end. The herd had gone to far and was dithering about before running to far in the opposite direction. macdunk

  4. #19
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    Comedy hour!!!
    http://www.kittydashwood.com - advice from a small black and white house cat, who favours a gap up on a red doji.

  5. #20
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    Plenty of Buy orders...thinning out on the Sell side...PGW is definitely heading up.

    I'm happy...
    FYA

  6. #21
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    quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

    Plenty of Buy orders...thinning out on the Sell side...PGW is definitely heading up.

    I'm happy...
    Dont fall in love with it remember to get out when the time is right. It ought to trend up for a considerable period with the lower dollar, mad cow disease, bird flue,to name a few items that are influencing the sp. macdunk

  7. #22
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    I'll be holding long term.
    The growing middle class in asia are going to demand, and be able to afford, more than three bowls of rice a day from now on. There are not many countries in the world that produce huge food surpluses such as NZ does. More and more arable land is going to be used to grow crops for bio fuels around the world which means less land available to grow food crops leading to reduced supply and increased food prices.
    ,
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #23
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    MICK, Never think you will hold long term even although it looks like a long term hold. I thought i was in this company long term but bailed out on my sell system then rebought back in. It certainly looks good fundamentely with the lower dollar plus the mad cow disease in the USA plus bird flue worries. If the sp rises to fast we might get another 15pc play at the top so dont stick them under the bed just yet. macdunk

  9. #24
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    Where's Phaedrus these days? We need another chart update!!

    FYA

  10. #25
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    quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

    Where's Phaedrus these days? We need another chart update!!

    I think you expect PHAEDRUS to give you a simple chart that explains all. It would be a difficult thing to post a meaningfull chart on this company. Lets take me for instance with my little play as an example. I bought PGG at $1-74 on sept 2004 before it amalginated with WRI i got extra shares in the new company for nothing plus all the dividends since then. To give out a simple chart means nothing unless everything fundamentely is accounted for.
    To draw a chart starting at $1-74 up to $2-20 {todays price] means very little unless dividends bonus shares whatever are counted. I would not expect PHAEDRUS to go into all the nitty gritty other than a chart on the sp which is only part of the story. macdunk

  11. #26
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    FYA4999 - here is a PGW chart for you. The 4 indicators shown here are all in good broad agreement and would currently have you holding this stock. Note how the OBV generated signals are much earlier than the rest - this is exactly what a "leading" indicator is supposed to do. Note also the sudden drop in the OBV right at the top of the uptrend as bigger holders (presumed to be the smart money) exited. Didn't they time that nicely? Bigger players are not invariably right of course, but it pays to keep an eye on what they are doing. Exactly the same phenomenon can be seen with other stocks - take a look at CAV for example - another exquisitely timed exit. It could be that these people know more than you and I - or perhaps they are just lucky.

    Duncan.
    Chart data is corrected for everything that has a quantifiable effect on the shareprice. Charts have therefore been corrected for share splits, bonus issues, capital distributions, new issues, stock consolidations etc.
    If you can identify a nitty or a gritty that you think has been missed, I would be interested to know its identity. An overlooked correction appears on the chart as an aprupt vertical step - playing hell with all technical indicators. TA would be worthless on stocks like GPG (regular bonus issues) or NZR (big dividends) unless the data were corrected for these events.

    Mick100. Yes, PGW did give a classical inverse "Head and Shoulders" formation - these are bullish as of course you know. I prefer to split these into their formative parts - a downtrend, a V reversal then an uptrend. Same thing though, whatever you call it.


  12. #27
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    PHAEDRUS, the two companies merged in oct 2005. PGG got a bonus issue of one share for every eight. Thats when PGW started up before that you had two sep companies with completely different prices. What companies fortunes does your chart follow PGG or WRI before the merger. Your chart only indicates PGW which was non existent at that time. The fortunes of both companies leading up to the merger and charts were nothing similar. MACDUNK

  13. #28
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    Thanks for the update Phaedrus
    .
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  14. #29
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    Duncan,
    Prices prior to the merger are based on corrected WRI data. That is how charts covering such a merger are usually presented. That is how Yahoo Finance handled it.

    If you feel that I am playing fast and loose with the data and do not trust this process, simply ignore all of the chart prior to 10/10/05. Guess what? You get the same signals, the same marked drop in the OBV, the same excellent OBV entry point in February etc etc.


  15. #30
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    Nice one Phaedrus...hope you post us an update when the Sell indicators are flashing too!

    [:o)]

    ps : MacDunk you've got a good point re the merger, but everything from Oct 2005 onwards refers to PGW, so its all good...we've got an uptrend.
    FYA

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