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  1. #11
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    SP has now fallen about 22% in three weeks, with no obvious explanation. With the result due next Thursday can't help wondering who has had a sneak preview. Where is the NZX?

  2. #12
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    I think that there are probably concerns on farm incomes - and therefore farmers spending. Dairy incomes have held up well, but sheep & beef farmers are under pressure, and the golden times of the last 4-5 years have seemingly dimmed. A drop in the dollar might help returns, but market prices for beef & lamb have fallen, with pelts, wool, venison & Velvet still depressed.

    If it continues, will put pressure on farm prices, which appear to be driven by capital gain, rather than yield.

    As Foodee mentions, costs have continued to increase, including interest rates, which will start to bite as farmers come off fixed rates. Many are pretty heavily leveraged.

  3. #13
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    Possible break in downward trend happening...maybe low NZD has something to do with it.

    Perhaps market looking for undervalued stocks right now.
    FYA

  4. #14
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    This drop in the value of the NZD couldn't have come at a better time for our farmers - at the hieght of the killing season. Even the dairy farmers will be breathing a sigh of relief although Fonterra have 15 months of forward currency hedges in place so it will be 06-07 season before they get some benifit from the lower dollar

    They say that spending levels are very closely correlated with confidence in future returns and I'm betting that the confidence levels of farmers have rachetted up a few notches since the NZD has taken a dive.

    Agricultural commodities appear to be right at the bottom of thier price cycle at the moment so hopefully we will have rising prices along with a falling dollar and boom times for NZ farmers.
    Bought some PGW today.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  5. #15
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    PGW must have broken out of it's downtrend by now - any chartists out yhere to give me an update - thanks
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  6. #16
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    MICK, PHAEDRUS would with his system sold at about $2-20 on the sell indicator and bought back in at $1-85 on the buy indication. I prefer doing the fundamental evaluation at the buying bit. PGW was a fundamental screaming buy at the end of feb. They sold surplus properties then the dollar started to drop the company was under priced with a divi looming. As always A fundamentely good companies share price will go to high go sideways then drop to low. Your other company that you hold like this is POT which is at the beginning of a long slow uptrend. The forestry exports will be the fundametals behind that. macdunk
    app to PHAEDRUS if i got it wrong

  7. #17
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    It didn't break the downtrend until it went over $2.00 macdunk. It shot up to $2.10 then came back down to test the trendline at $2.00 and then it was away - perfect breakout
    Correct me if I'm wrong but did PGW put in an inverse H&S over the past couple of months.
    The chartists should be drooling over this one but they're nowhere to be seen - I'm disapointed.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #18
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    MICK, I can only say what i did. I sold out at $2-20 average when it hit my time line in dec and bought at $1-85 in feb. I find charts mixed with a bit of common sense the way to go. My time line told me to get out my common sense told me that the share was underpriced buy back in. Tread lines is no way to buy a share fundamental analysis is. The tech side of it comes into its own at the sell end. The herd had gone to far and was dithering about before running to far in the opposite direction. macdunk

  9. #19
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    Comedy hour!!!
    http://www.kittydashwood.com - advice from a small black and white house cat, who favours a gap up on a red doji.

  10. #20
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    Plenty of Buy orders...thinning out on the Sell side...PGW is definitely heading up.

    I'm happy...
    FYA

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