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  1. #2001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Balance, I still can't fathom how you missed selection for the Olympic team. You are that good with the long-bow.

    Your theory is good IMO, but the timing is out. Agria started with a 19.9% shareholding in PGW, then when things turned good they did pounce, which is why they now hold just over 50%. But that was over a year ago! Agria want the PGW proprietary seed technology. They have access and control of that through their 50.22% PGW stake. You have to convince me why Agria would want any more of PGW for your theory to have further legs.

    Once you have established a need to mop up the PGW share register, you will then have to demonstrate a means. Agria at US84c has a market capitalization of $US46.52m. PGW at US26c has a market capitalization of $US197m. Of course Agria has already swallowed half of that, but it still leaves $US98m in the hands of other PGW shareholders. Little fish cannot swallow big fish. That is how it works in the ocean and the same rules apply to the financial sharks.

    SNOOPY
    Do read about how China companies are accessing billions from the China government for overseas acquisitions.

    If you want an idea of how well-connected Asian companies work, check out Olam of Singapore (Open Country Cheese and NZS). Olam was a small company when it started making acquisitions 6 years ago - had the market wondering how much debt the company could carry. Behind the scenes was of course the Singapore government with its hundreds of billions of dollars of investment funds.

  2. #2002
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Do read about how China companies are accessing billions from the China government for overseas acquisitions.

    If you want an idea of how well-connected Asian companies work, check out Olam of Singapore (Open Country Cheese and NZS). Olam was a small company when it started making acquisitions 6 years ago - had the market wondering how much debt the company could carry. Behind the scenes was of course the Singapore government with its hundreds of billions of dollars of investment funds.
    @snoopy,
    i don't understand your argument. You are saying, AGRIA has a market cap of 48 million dollar, and they own 50% of PGW.
    That means in a fair market that the other 50% of PGW should not be more worth than 48 million dollar.
    But it is more worth, shareholders are buying, volume is increasing. The market cap of AGRIA can double within one week. Look at other chinese Agrar Companies like AGFeed, it has tripled within 6 weeks. You should check the shareholder register at computershare, look for chinese based funds i think they are buying for AGRIA, and of course these low ball offer.

  3. #2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Very good point Belge, this is turning out to be a bad day for NZ Inc. Some of our best R&D work going offshore for a pittance.
    Pittance because NZ Inc is so pre-occupied with property, is generally financially illiterate and so is also easy prey for the NZ world class born and bred con-artists (Mark Bryers, Rod Petricevic etc) out there.

    Think of the billions tied up and lost in properties in coastal areas (because they do not create land anymore - yeah right) and in the finance companies.

    Just a billion or two of that tens of billions of dollars tied up and lost - if that was invested into the share market, we will not lose companies like FAP, PGW or for that matter, Diligent.

    Oh well, not much the likes of you and I can do, elZorro, save make sure we get a slice of the takeover action.

    FAP has been a long time coming and must admit it was nerve racking when the sp got down to 34 cents last year.

    But what did Warren Buffett say? Be brave when others are frightened, and be afraid when others are greedy? Wish I have his fortitude!

    Oh well, it's PGW time next. Not if but when.

    Agria is but a front in my view.
    Last edited by Balance; 11-09-2012 at 09:53 AM.

  4. #2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Pittance because NZ Inc is so pre-occupied with property, is generally financially illiterate and so is also easy prey for the NZ world class born and bred con-artists (Mark Bryers, Rod Petricevic etc) out there.

    Think of the billions tied up and lost in properties in coastal areas (because they do not create land anymore - yeah right) and in the finance companies.

    Just a billion or two of that tens of billions of dollars tied up and lost - if that was invested into the share market, we will not lose companies like FAP, PGW or for that matter, Diligent.

    Oh well, not much the likes of you and I can do, elZorro, save make sure we get a slice of the takeover action.

    FAP has been a long time coming and must admit it was nerve racking when the sp got down to 34 cents last year.

    But what did Warren Buffett say? Be brave when others are frightened, and be afraid when others are greedy?

    Oh well, it's PGW time next. Not if but when.
    well pointed balance, time will tell.

  5. #2005
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    Think of the hundreds of millions to be released soon from takeover of FPA- some of that money will be looking for the next takeover target.

  6. #2006
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    Crossings now at 37 cents - just like HNZ, watch carefully.

    500,000 just crossed at 37c.

    Somebody wants volume.

  7. #2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Luckily NZ's two most successful businessmen don't know that.!!!!!!!
    Graeme Hart's Rank Group brought out The govt print office using debt.Once he got the taste of eating big fish he set about eating bigger and bigger fish.
    Alan Gibbs had a history of buying big businesses using none of his own money.Totally debt funded.
    You should find Serious Fun The alan Gibbs story enlightening.
    The question is Percy, could Hart and Gibbs do the same post 2007 financial crisis? Back in the first days after financial deregulation you could more or less get a loan for anything so desperate were the banks and finance companies to build up their loan portfolios. Hart in particular was able to buy a company with 'lazy assets' and sell them off to repay his huge debts.

    Banks are not willing to lend like they did back then. And PGW does not have the lazy assets a would be 'little fish predator' can sell in a hurry. I still stick to my view that Agria will not be able to swallow PGW.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 12-09-2012 at 09:19 PM.
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  8. #2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Agrarinvestor View Post
    i don't understand your argument. You are saying, AGRIA has a market cap of 48 million dollar, and they own 50% of PGW.
    That means in a fair market that the other 50% of PGW should not be more worth than 48 million dollar.
    But it is more worth, shareholders are buying, volume is increasing. The market cap of AGRIA can double within one week.
    Agrainvestor, what you say would be correct if Agria had a long term future. The fact is Agria bought most of their PGW stake at 60c and the market price is now under 40c. Early next year the bank debt of Agria starts rolling over. Agria has lost a lot of money on their PGW shares and those hard nosed bank managers that lent to Agria are going to look at what Agria has done with their money and consider whether they will ever be repaid. Agria has almost no income so they cannot service their debts unless they are given back a near 0% loan. Agria is closing today near 78c, very close to the all time low.

    By pricing Agria as it does, the market is saying that on balance Agria will not survive with its current capital structure. There may be some 'New Hope' of a Chinese government backed capital injection. But such a rescue will dilute the PGW equity stake held by existing Agria shareholders. Nevertheless such a rescue would be preferable to the even less palatable option of Agria receivership.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 12-09-2012 at 09:16 PM.
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  9. #2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Do read about how China companies are accessing billions from the China government for overseas acquisitions.

    If you want an idea of how well-connected Asian companies work, check out Olam of Singapore (Open Country Cheese and NZS). Olam was a small company when it started making acquisitions 6 years ago - had the market wondering how much debt the company could carry. Behind the scenes was of course the Singapore government with its hundreds of billions of dollars of investment funds.
    Balance I accept that the Chinese government could put money into a takeover of PGW. But you haven't come up with any reason why they should do it. PGW is already controlled by Agria, so why would Agria spend any more money for no additional benefit? The partnership between the Chinese government and Agria looks to me to be an uneasy one. Very different to the Singaporean government/Olam situation.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 12-09-2012 at 09:10 PM.
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  10. #2010
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The question is Percy, could Hart and Gibbs do the same post 2007 financial crisis? Back in the first days after financial deregulation you could more or less get a loan for anything so desperate were the banks and finance companies to build up their loan portfolios. Hart in particular was able to buy a company with 'lazy assets' and sell them off to repay his huge debts.

    Banks are not willing to lend like they did back then. And PGW does not have the lazy assets a would be 'little fish predator' can sell in a hurry. I still stick to my view that Agria will not be able to swallow PGW.

    SNOOPY
    Knowing Hart's and Gibb's history no one can say they could or couldn't do similar deals today.Be different,but they would find ways.
    PGW takeover.Balance has answered that with his post 2150 which is correct.

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