PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Cool Bear]

I'm in the same boat. Picked it for the same reasons and don't own it either.

I am in the other boat. Did not pick it but own it. But do not own much.

[Snoopy]

It was dishonest to selectively cut a quote into two without noting it Snoopy, and shame on you for not acknowledging that or acknowledging it changed context.

Sparky, the purpose of I quoting you is to bring into context the point that I was trying to make.

Your post's full content is still there for those who want to read it, because your original post is still there. Anyone who reads my post can go back and look at yours and make their own judgements about whether I have manipulated what you said. All I can say is that it was not my intention to manipulate what you said into something else. I apologize to you if my post caused you to perceive that I was manipulating what you said, even though I had no intention of doing so.

This is a thread. That means that no post should stand alone and must be read in context of the entire thread. Perhaps if you believed that you would not have been so offended.

SNOOPY

[Agrarinvestor]

I was wondering how you could deduce that that was even possible, given what we know about Agria.

SNOOPY

Dear Gentlemen,

i wonder when i read the sentence above. Is it possible that you (all) have a complete wrong picture about Agria ?

Small David has helped Goliath in 2009, you remember?
>>Preliminary agreement has been reached for Agria to invest in PGG Wrightson through the placement of new equity representing 13 percent of PGG Wrightson's share capital, at 88 cents per share, at a value of NZ$36 million. Both parties' aspiration is to become a significant shareholder in PGG Wrightson over time<<

Was there a single bad decision since Agria is majority shareholder. I belief you agree that concentrating on seed and core business was not a bad one.

Now Agria and all the other shareholder of PGW has received a small dividend out of an additional income that PGW has received (craffar loans).
PGW has done well in the first half year and everybody knows it is the weaker half year. Sparky the CLown told us that he is confident that PGW will reduce the debt level:
>>My homework suggests the debt will continue to drop from $103m to $50-60m sometime in the second half of the year.<<

I asume he has done not only his homework. Sparky is someone who use the telefone, email and does't hesitate to make a personal visit. That's good.
I do the same(except the personal visits). It is my experience that management never tell a lie to small investors.

>>Since Agria don't have a CEO Sparky, why not apply for the job? You probably know more about the underlying PGW business than anyone else on the staff there (and yes I am being serious in that suggestion)! You have the optimism to succeed, but can you follow the recipe required:

Ingredient 1/ Negative cashflow
Ingredient 2/ Making Losses<<

Snoopy can i asume that you would be full of awe if Agria has made money during the last half year ?

I have full respect for Sparkys investifgations and knowledge in PGW. But i think Agria is in search of person who has the best connections to the Ministry of Agriculture, CAAS or
local governement, and of course is someone with a academic reputation in seed science. They don't need someone who is a replacement for Mr. Tao. I beleaf they have a trustful
relationship with the management and the Kiwis.

I expect 1.40$ end of April. And if PGW is doing well at fiscal year end and the first whisper numbers came in and if they are a little bit better than last year you will see Agria is going through the roof.

[Queenstfarmer]

I'm surrounded by dairy farms in the South Waikato and each day I watch as my neighbours put out feed for their herds that they would usually save for winter. The rain will come but perhaps a little too late to bring on enough growth before the ground temperature drops and grass growth slows to near on nil. Winter feeds will be in hot supply. Have PGW and Agria got their thinking caps on. Overseas contacts...container ships...MONEY!

[Food4Thought]

PGW is a supplier of a wide range of stock feeds. PKE, loved by Farmers because of it's price/efficiency is one of the items in the Agri Feed list that PGW provides. The weather hasn't been good for dairy/sheep farmers (in parts of NZ). Fruit growers, wineries and maize/wheat etc have had a great growing and ripening season. Wool trade is up. Irrigation demand has increased. Demand for protein from overseas is up. Demand for dairy is up. I think that it will be tough for some NZ dairy/sheep/beef farmers, but for PGW this will be only an aspect of their business, and this is likely to play favourably for PGW. I find it interesting that the seed business is improving. Have a hunt around and you will find that the season has been more favourable in NZ and Australia over the last 2-3 years. With solid management in place, a dedicated team, and sticking to their fundamental business, PGW will have a solid year's results. The second half of the year will be a pleasant reminder to those who have invested in PGW.

[Snoopy]

You mean like how an investment should not be assessed on financial statements alone, but should also include some rigourous analysis of the company's business model, possibly including questions of management and those who professionally research the company?

I prefer not to ask for a running commentary from PGW B level managers Sparky. The company is very diverse and I believe the answers that I would receive from questioning such people would not be helpful to me. I have never heard a sales manager forecast a decrease in sales, for example. Yet we know that in farming related companies there are always ups and downs. Getting my ear close to the ground for a running commentary is not my style. Buy in gloom and sell in boom is. It is more macro factors that drive the booms and glooms. I don't need the middle level managers to tell me exactly when this is happening.

As for looking at broker research, well I will look at what others have to say. But clearly putting an annual profit growth projection on a straight line scale and rolling it over into subsequent years is overly simplistic. The researchers know this too and put certain caveats on their predictions. Caveats which some investors are happy to ignore.

SNOOPY

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[percy]

I prefer not to ask for a running commentary from PGW B level managers Sparky. The company is very diverse and I believe the answers that I would receive from questioning such people would not be helpful to me. I have never heard a sales manager forecast a decrease in sales, for example. Yet we know that in farming related companies there are always ups and downs. Getting my ear close to the ground for a running commentary is not my style. Buy in gloom and sell in boom is. It is more macro factors that drive the booms and glooms. I don't need the middle level managers to tell me exactly when this is happening.

As for looking at broker research, well I will look at what others have to say. But clearly putting an annual profit growth projection on a straight line scale and rolling it over into subsequent years is overly simplistic. The researchers know this too and put certain caveats on their predictions. Caveats which some investors are happy to ignore.

SNOOPY

.

Speaking to any employee is always rewarding.You can quickly pick up whether they are proud to work for the company,what they think of where the company is going,are they getting the right products to sell,do they get the support from head office they need,and finding out what the opposition are doing.
You can pick up whether the company is in good shape or not.Really you just need to know what to ask.
Peter Lynch,Warren Buffett,in fact any successful investor checks out "the whole" business.
I trust you tried a KFC before buying their shares.?
And we must not forget "the tea lady" has always been the greatest source of inside information.

[noodles]

I'm surrounded by dairy farms in the South Waikato and each day I watch as my neighbours put out feed for their herds that they would usually save for winter. The rain will come but perhaps a little too late to bring on enough growth before the ground temperature drops and grass growth slows to near on nil. Winter feeds will be in hot supply. Have PGW and Agria got their thinking caps on. Overseas contacts...container ships...MONEY!

Biosecurity nightmare!

[Minerbarejet]

Biosecurity nightmare!

Thats all we need - foot and mouth - think what that will do to your PGW

[percy]

Thats all we need - foot and mouth - think what that will do to your PGW

Think what would happen to NZ..!!!!