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  1. #2531
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    PGW seeds business should performing well follow this drought:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...-about-pasture

  2. #2532
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    See nut arm say Australia is munted at the moment and they not making any money over there

    Cany even sell sun flower seeds cause of the weather

    But then again nufaem activities bear no resemblence to pgw so no worries eh

  3. #2533
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    NUFARM have recently acquired an American seeds business which no doubt they wil leverage ctivity in this part of the world. Pretty big business circa 100 mill annually but I don't know what sort of seeds they specialise in. Potential PGW competitor?

    I only posted the comments about NUF woes because they made a lot of the lack of sunflower seed sales as one reason along with the general climatic conditions in AU which seemed pertinent to this three. Yes NUF mainly in chemicals but Agria related businesses is their game

    If PGW boom with their seeds so will NUF - making sure only the seeds turn into what they meant to be and taken over by weeds and grubs

  4. #2534
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    We ran into this back in the sixties when we had some horrendous droughts. Those areas that have had some but minimal rain to this point now have the added peril of clodding. As I understand it, this is where minimal rain turns the grass roots upwards seeking the moisture, growth ensues, the animal eats the grass AND pulls it out of the ground. It would seem to be crucial for the farmers that a good dose of rain is needed now in order to prevent this. Added to this is the scourge of facial eczema.

    On a positive note though PGW will have a lot of seedsowing on its hands one way or another.
    More so if the above happens.

    Could be a good year for wild mushrooms too but have a feeling there wont be many whitebait around in August.

    This post has the intent of passing on personally experienced information as part of the thread.
    It contains two speculative statements related to the environment but not connected to the thread.
    It is not intended to offend any sharetrader forum member.

  5. #2535
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    Take it from me there is a huge amount of seed going into the ground at the moment, we are under sowing drought expired pastures right now which in a normal year would not be the case. We have also had to re sow brasica crops which have not fired at all, this weekend i drove from the wairarapa through to Napier and would have seen 20 direct drills working along the way and countless paddocks that have been covered .

  6. #2536
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  7. #2537
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    I agree its mighty convenient to boost Agria's share price.

    So is Agria's price irrationally low? Fraid I can't answer that, as I really don't follow the company.
    I think you are being a little modest here Sparky, even if you don't know it. Please allow me to join the dots for you.

    The Agria half year results are out. Unfortunately the Agria detail is nowhere near as comprehensive as the PGW result for the corresponding period. However Agria do disclose that their principal divisions in China, Field Corn Seeds and Edible corn seeds had turnover of $US2.8m and $US2.2m respectively, for a total of $US5m over the half year.

    We are told total consolidated revenues were $US489.1m for the six month period. But this figure includes the turnover of the 49.99% minority shareholders, as well as that of the Chinese operations. So we can work out the percentage of revenues from the Chinese based operations as follows:

    $US5m / [$US489.1m-$US5m] x [1-0.4999] = 2.06%

    So the total Agria turnover outside of PGW amounts to just over 2% of the total, which is within the margin of error when looking at results on this scale.

    What this means is that to get a complete picture, within 2%, you can entirely ignore what Agria is doing under its own brand in China. If you understand PGW, and I think you do Sparky, then you also understand Agria.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 03-04-2013 at 09:52 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #2538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    We are told total consolidated revenues were $US489.1m for the six month period. But this figure includes the turnover of the 49.99% minority shareholders, as well as that of the Chinese operations. So we can work out the percentage of revenues from the Chinese based operations as follows:

    $US5m / [$US489.1m-$US5m] x [1-0.4999] = 2.06%

    So the total Agria turnover outside of PGW amounts to just over 2% of the total, which is within the margin of error when looking at results on this scale.
    Some more detail on half year earnings. Agria made 'Operating Income' (EBIT) of $US6.1m, which equates to $NZ7.4m using the exchange rate on 31st December 2012 (half year result date).

    From the PGW HY2013 report, EBIT was $NZ18.0m - $NZ4.0m = $NZ14.0m.

    Half of that (the Agria share) is $NZ7m, which compares unfavourably with the $NZ7.4m EBIT declared by Agria. So has Agria finally added some value at EBIT level? Possibly, although the lack of break down in the Agria result makes it difficult to be sure.

    The problem of course is that Agria has large debts, over and above any debt consolidated via PGW. So the NPAT result is liable to be much worse than the 'operating profit' declared. I would guess that on a NPAT normalized basis, Agria is still loss making. Of course we will have to wait until to full year 20F filing in the third quarter to confirm this.

    SNOOPY
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  9. #2539
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    Quote Originally Posted by Agrarinvestor View Post
    >>That in turn means that the declared recent dividend will be paid by just borrowing more money from the banks to do it.<<


    Total Liabilities 406.0 405.5 502.0 847.1 901.8

    Total Equity 581.3 575.0 564.0 602.0 631.0


    Libilities enhanced by 0.5 Million
    Equity enhanced by 6 Million

    Where is the problem Snoopy. I don't understand ?
    The figures you have quoted I think are from the PGW balance sheet with the most recent full year figures on the left. There is no doubt Agrainvestor that the reduction in liabilities and the increase in equity are moves in the right direction. The problem I see is what happens from here. Allegedly the PGW restructuring is now over. But what we are left with is a company with over $400m in debts and what looks to be normalized peak of business cycle profits of around $NZ25m. By my way of thinking that debt level is still far too high, and there appears no prospect of it reducing further.

    Borrowing money to pay Agria (and small shareholders) a dividend, will have an adverse effect on liabilities going forward. That in turn puts PGW at risk should the rural downturn take hold.

    The share price is being held up at 38c, probably in anticipation of a further 2cps dividend in the coming twelve months. This represents a gross yield of some 7.5%. But I think there are other far safer dividend yields of 7.5% available on the market, and personally I have real doubts as to whether a forward annualized dividend rate of 2cps is sustainable for PGW over the next two years. To me with all of those rural drought effects still to flow through, I don't believe that topping up at 38c is a good bet.

    SNOOPY
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  10. #2540
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    Received dividend statement today. Very clear that this 2.2c payout was an interim dividend. So in the event of shareholders receiving a final of perhaps a similar amount...the yield would therefore be approximately 4 times more than the banks give us at around 16%. That's going on a gross dividend of a little over 3 cents per share (just received) and then again for a final. Snoopy?

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