PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Stranger_Danger]

Big volume on Agria today:

Prev Close:	1.49
Open:	1.51
Bid:	1.58 x 2000
Ask:	1.60 x 5600
1y Target Est:	2.00
Beta:	0.57
Next Earnings Date:	N/A

Day's Range:	1.45 - 1.64
52wk Range:	0.69 - 1.74
Volume:	786,588
Avg Vol (3m):	137,78

Part of the reason for the interest will be the fact it is the main pick at the moment of the NIA, who many regard as a pump and dump operation.

Certainly, if you look at the long term track record, it consists of things starting at a dollar, going up to 5 bucks, and ending up at 50 cents.

Regardless, they apparently have millions on their mailing list, so their interest almost always pops a stock. A sample of their stuff is below.

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New Zealand's exports to China reached a record $1.22 BILLION in the month of November alone, up a STUNNING 80% year-over-year! On an annualized basis this equals $14.64 BILLION up an AMAZING 597% since 2008, when total full year New Zealand exports to China were only $2.3 billion! Exports of agricultural products, mainly meat and dairy, are by far driving the overwhelming majority of this unbelievable growth.

China's wealthiest investors are rushing to buy up New Zealand agricultural assets. Agria (GRO) was the very first to do so several years ago, which allowed GRO to acquire the cream of the crop - PGG Wrightson, the largest agricultural services company in the entire nation with over 100 rural supply stores located throughout every part of both the North and South New Zealand islands. In New Zealand, the name PGG Wrightson is just as well known as McDonalds is in America. Today PGG Wrightson was the 7th most active stock on the NZX, and lately it has been one of New Zealand's most active stocks almost every single day.

The first half of PGG Wrightson's fiscal 2014 ends tomorrow, and by the time they report first half results in February, both PGG Wrightson and GRO will likely be trading significantly above their current share prices. New Zealand's economy is the fastest growing out of all developed countries due to its booming agricultural sector, and PGG Wrightson's business is such an integral part of New Zealand's agricultural sector that it's nearly impossible for GRO and PGG Wrightson not to be benefiting big time - with both companies likely set to report extremely strong financial results!

Based on PGG Wrightson's dividend paid in fiscal 2013, it has a dividend yield of 8%. Check out this web site: http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/hightolowdividend.php It lists PGG Wrightson's dividend yield as the 8th highest out of all NZX traded companies. However, if you look at things more closely, #7 on the list Pacific Brands paid out their dividend in Australian dollars, which have fallen dramatically vs. the NZD - and PGG Wrightson's dividend yield is actually now higher! #6 on the list Marlin Global may pay a slightly higher dividend yield but it trades an average of only 16,000 shares per day vs. PGG Wrightson's average volume of 474,000 shares per day!

#5 on the list Hallenstein Glasson only has a higher dividend yield because the stock is down 23% in recent months after poor earnings results, which will force them to lower their dividend next year to a yield less than PGG Wrightson! #4 on the list TeamTalk is also down 31% in recent months and will likely have to lower their dividend next year as well. #3 on the list Barramundi has little/no liquidity with average daily volume of 14,000. #2 on the list Chorus just withdrew its 2014 dividend guidance, causing a 38% drop in the stock. #1 on the list Pan Pacific is on the list by error and stopped paying a dividend last year.

As you can see, PGG Wrightson truly has the #1 highest dividend yield on the NZX, and GRO's 80.81% owned Agria Asia subsidiary will receive the majority of PGG Wrightson's HUGE cash dividend payments! PGG Wrightson is very liquid with rapidly increasing volume, and is currently in a major uptrend, with their EPS projected to double next year. PGG Wrightson's dividend will likely increase substantially next year to match their rapidly improving fundamentals!

Already GRO's PGG Wrightson ownership is worth $1.81 per share and including a 1-2X sales valuation for GRO's rapidly growing China seeds business, GRO deserves to rise immediately to $2.12-$2.42. For every $0.10 per share PGG Wrightson rises, GRO will deserve to rise an additional $0.45 per share. So if PGG Wrightson rises to $0.50 in January, GRO will deserve to rise to $2.57-$2.87. If PGG Wrightson rises to $0.60 in January, GRO will deserve to rise to $3.02-$3.32.

GRO's net tangible assets grew 165% in fiscal 2013 to $76.836 million or $1.39 per share. In 2012, GRO averaged a share price of $1 or 1.92X its net tangible assets at the time of $0.52 per share, which will now value GRO at $2.67 per share! GRO is now a major global competitor of Monsanto (MON), the world's largest seeds company, which currently trades for 7.76X its net tangible assets. GRO's net tangible assets will likely increase tremendously once again in 2014 as they receive their HUGE cash dividend payments from PGG Wrightson. Remember, GRO controls PGG Wrightson and will make them pay out the largest cash dividends it can afford - to drive GRO's cash flow through the roof as high as possible! After GRO breaks $1.60 it could rapidly explode past $2. NIA will prepare a technical analysis chart to show you later!

NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.

Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 550,000 shares of GRO. NIA intends to sell its GRO shares and can do so at anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its GRO position at any time. NIA initially discussed GRO in a private report that was released to a small exclusive group of NIA members over two years ago.

[Stranger_Danger]

And another...

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NIA's technical analysis expert just provided us with a written Agria (GRO) technical analysis report, as well as a special GRO technical analysis chart:

Link to special GRO technical analysis chart: http://inflation.us/grotechnicalchart.png

When conducting a full technical analysis on GRO, we see several key indicators pointing to higher prices in the near future. First, the 200day MA has acted as support ever since GRO broke above it on March 7, 2013, on a significant increase in trading volume. GRO has never once traded below the 200day MA after that point; a bullish sign. Following the breakout in March, it took some time for the 200day MA to catch up to the share price in GRO. For the next seven months GRO for the most part traded sideways, patiently waiting for the 200day MA to play catch up. Then, in early October, we saw the 200day MA finally catch up to the share price of GRO and spark a massive breakout that led to a 59% gain in share price coupled with another significant spike in trading volume.

Not only was this breakout proof that the 200day MA is acting as strong support, but it also catapulted GRO through a major resistance level that stood firm for about seven months around the $1.20-$1.25 area. As many of you already know, resistance levels often times become support levels after broken to the upside on significant volume and that is exactly what is has happened with GRO. After breaking above $1.25 on October 9, 2013, GRO has not once traded below that mark. In fact, a bullish pennant is forming above the new support level hinting towards yet another breakout.

After October 9, 2013, you can see GRO’s trading range beginning to tighten or consolidate forming what is commonly known as a bullish pennant pattern. As the trading range gets smaller and smaller, GRO begins to creep towards its inflection point or breakout point. This is where the new support level and 200day MA will play a vital part in the anticipated move to the upside.

As the 200day MA plays catch up, like we saw back in October, GRO has held its new support level showing strength. We believe that once the 200day MA catches up to the current share price of GRO that we could see another strong breakout to the upside. Remember, the last time this happened we saw a 59% gain. A similar move today would rocket GRO to $2.28.

An early warning sign that things are starting to heat up is an increase in trading volume. And GRO’s trading volume in each of the past two days has far exceeded the trading volume of the previous 17 trading days. At this point, it appears as though $1.55 is the breakout point that we must keep our eye on. Once above $1.55, GRO will have broken out of the bullish pennant pattern with very little resistance standing in its way. It’s very possible that we could see GRO above $2.00 real soon.

NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.

Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 550,000 shares of GRO. NIA intends to sell its GRO shares and can do so at anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its GRO position at any time. NIA initially discussed GRO in a private report that was released to a small exclusive group of NIA members over two years ago

[Stranger_Danger]

And finally, today's effort just in....

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Not only is Agria (GRO) a China agriculture play, but it is the only U.S. traded New Zealand agriculture play. New Zealand will likely make huge headlines later this month as the first developed economy to raise interest rates. Over the past 5 years, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the world's strongest currency and the only currency to outperform gold, because New Zealand's strong agricultural based economy isn't dependent on printing money for growth.

America's reported "real GDP growth" is phony, because it uses hedonics to understate price inflation by 2% annually. After adjusting the implicit deflator for the real rate of price inflation, America's real GDP is actually declining. If not for 0% interest rates and $75 billion being printed each month by the Fed, America's gross GDP would be declining too.

New Zealand's economic growth is for real, with their economy exporting food, NOT printed out pieces of paper. As China slowly allows the yuan to appreciate vs. the U.S. dollar over time, as it positions itself to depeg from the U.S. dollar so that the yuan becomes the world's new reserve currency - China's appetite for food will continue to grow tremendously, and New Zealand's economy will benefit the most - with Agria (GRO) likely to become the #1 biggest gainer on the NYSE.

New Zealand's central bank currently has interest rates set at 2.5%, tied with Australia for being the highest out of all major central banks. With China rapidly increasing their agriculture imports from New Zealand at a much faster rate than from Australia, the NZD has gained 16.6% vs. the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past twelve months - with the NZD/AUD exchange rate currently at its highest level in over six years. Economists forecast New Zealand's 4Q 2013 year-over-year GDP growth rate to reach 3.71% vs. 4Q year-over-year GDP growth of only 2% in Australia and the U.S., 1.6% in Canada, and -0.5% in the Euro Zone.

GRO's #1 asset is its 80.81% ownership of Agria Asia, which currently owns 50.22% of PGG Wrightson. New Hope Group, China's largest agriculture company with $12.7 billion in annual revenues, was very interested in PGG Wrightson and therefore invested $20 million into GRO for a 11.95% stake in Agria Asia. New Hope's two founders are currently ranked by Forbes the #10 and #30 richest people in China, respectively! Their investment values GRO's 80.81% Agria Asia ownership at $135.25 million or $2.44 per share.

Likewise, Ngai Tahu invested $12.44 million into GRO for a 7.24% take in Agria Asia. The last time Ngai Tahu made a similar venture capital investment, it invested NZ$7.4 million into Ryman Healthcare (NZX: RYM) at $0.185, before it rose 4,127% to its current price of $7.82. Ngai Thau is making NZ$268 million on a NZ$7.4 million investment and they see similar potential for their $12.44 million investment into GRO's Agria Asia. Their investment values GRO's 80.81% Agria Asia ownership at $138.85 million or $2.51 per share.

This isn't including GRO's China seeds business, which grew revenues last year by 98%! Including China seeds, GRO could easily rise to $3+ in the upcoming days/weeks.

GRO isn't like most other Chinese companies, which rely heavily on exports to the United States. GRO has absolutely no ties to the U.S. economy. Instead, GRO is the only U.S. traded stock capitalizing on New Zealand's booming exports to China, which were up a STUNNING 80% in November year-over-year, and on an annualized basis are up 597% since 2008!

China has now officially surpassed Australia to become New Zealand's largest trading partner. Not surprisingly, New Zealand's exports to the U.S. in November declined 16% year-over-year. Overall, New Zealand's total exports in November 2013 were up 17% to $4.5 billion, with $1.22 billion or 27.1% of exports going to China, up from 17.9% of exports going to China in November 2012. New Zealand's November 2013 exports to China were more than quadruple their exports to the U.S., with only 6.84% of exports going to the U.S. vs. 9.52% in November 2012.

Just like how New Zealand's rising exports to China are more than making up for New Zealand's declining exports to America, New Zealand is helping China's economy adjust to slowing growth of Chinese exports to America. New Zealand's imports from China grew 11% in November 2013 to $857.73 million, with 20% of New Zealand imports coming from China vs. 17.5% in November 2012.

New Zealand had a trade surplus with China in November 2013 of $366 million vs. a trade deficit with China in November 2012 of ($93 million). Overall, New Zealand had a total November 2013 trade surplus of $183 million, surpassing economist forecasts for a November 2013 deficit of ($117.3 million) - a positive surprise of $300.3 million and an improvement of $770 million from a November 2012 trade deficit of ($587 million).

New Zealand is now expected to have a 2014 full year trade surplus, and a 2015 full year budget surplus. The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the Euro Zone (excluding Germany) aren't forecasting trade or budget surpluses until over a decade from now.

GRO's PGG Wrightson generated fiscal 2013 revenues of $1.13 billion with 82% of revenues or $926.53 million coming from New Zealand. PGG Wrightson's importance to the New Zealand economy is the equivalent of a U.S. corporation that generates U.S. revenues of $67.8 billion. This makes PGG Wrightson just as important to the New Zealand economy is Apple is to the U.S. economy. A recent report shows that 16.5% of all New Zealand farmers shop at GRO's PGG Wrightson's retail stores: http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Fil...NZ-farmers.pdf.

GRO's EPS from PGG Wrightson this year is projected to MORE THAN DOUBLE!

NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.

Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 550,000 shares of GRO. NIA intends to sell its GRO shares and can do so at anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its GRO position at any time. NIA initially discussed GRO in a private report that was released to a small exclusive group of NIA members over two years ago.

[Snoopy]

A recent report shows that 16.5% of all New Zealand farmers shop at GRO's PGG Wrightson's retail stores: http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Fil...NZ-farmers.pdf.

If you are going to spruik something at least do it right. PGGW the country's largest rural supplier by footprint and only 16.5% of farmers deal with them? I didn't realise the relationship between PGW and farmers had got that bad!

SNOOPY

PS The actual survey showed 16.5% of farmers deal with PGW over a one month period

[percy]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;452436]If you are going to spruik something at least do it right.


Yeah Right!!
Good joke coming from you.!!!!!

[Stranger_Danger]

If you are going to spruik something at least do it right. PGGW the country's largest rural supplier by footprint and only 16.5% of farmers deal with them? I didn't realise the relationship between PGW and farmers had got that bad!

SNOOPY

PS The actual survey showed 16.5% of farmers deal with PGW over a one month period

I'm sure you'll find more than that if you look. The more you know about a subject, the more scary their stuff is.

They used to recommend BVSN : Nasdaq which I know something about and, man, I can't believe how people swallowed it. It went from about $8 to about $50 and then back to $8. That is what these guys can do.

[Agrarinvestor]

I'm sure you'll find more than that if you look. The more you know about a subject, the more scary their stuff is.

They used to recommend BVSN : Nasdaq which I know something about and, man, I can't believe how people swallowed it. It went from about $8 to about $50 and then back to $8. That is what these guys can do.

Dear Fellows,

i always wonder. You are throwing Scheiße at Agria and on the oher side you beleave PGW is a value play. It is not the fault of Agria, if NIA wrote facts about PGW/Agria. It is a simple logic that Agria share price will raise more than PGW's. It is possible that PGW stay at 40 cent for ever, or maybe traded at 20 cent. Agria has the majority stake and the value of PGW's shareprice is strongly connected to the dividend.
The strategic Investment in PGW was clever. It helps to improve Agrias label and knowledge. PGW and New Zealand
has big advantages in doing business with China, but shareholders of PGW will be left outside.

[p2r]

I have a small rural block. Most people would buy stuff off RD1 (fontera) or farmlands or ravensdown, all cooperatives. But PGG more horticulture but can offer a sharp price. Certainly there is a market there for a sharp operator to undercut the sluggish coops. Perhaps internet sales will do that. PGG & Elders pretty similar in the livestock side I would say.

[Agrarinvestor]

You got that right. Never a great place to be unless the major holder is going to take 100% and Agria isn't likely to do that.

I know that a lot of sharetrader user here, have a deep knowledge of agriculture and on analyzing the fundamentals. China and new Zealand have a growing relation ship, what is good for your jobs.
There are some chines companys listed at NYSE where you should have a deeper look. Please spend some time on China Green Agriculture.
http://www.cgagri.com/IR/cgagri/presentation.asp.htm

2012	2010	2008
Australien 21% VR China 15% USA 9,2% Japan 7%	Australien 23,1% China VR 11,2% USA 8,6% Japan 7,8%	Australien 23,1% USA 10,1% Japan 8,4% China VR 5,8%

Export in Million US Dollars
37.900 (2012)
31.880 (2010)
15.860 (2003)

[Master98]

Half Year Results Announcement Date


PGW Interim result will be out 3.00pm on Tuesday 25 February 2014. seems a little late at 3pm could be the chairman and most of board member are chinese and china is 5 hrs behind New Zealand.