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15-08-2014, 04:34 PM
#3121
Originally Posted by percy
Yes,while you can look forward to the very substantial dividend, I think the improvements made to the core business over the past couple of years,means the company will now have the capacity to pay on going substantial DIVIDENDS.
Sure will mate. I've been busy buying at 42 and 43 cents after the result which looks like a winning strategy seeing as they closed the week at 45
Last edited by Beagle; 15-08-2014 at 04:37 PM.
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15-08-2014, 04:34 PM
#3122
Originally Posted by percy
The share price was 39.5 cents on Friday.Bit of a tail wind with sheep and beef farmers doing well, we could see 49.5 cents in the next year.A 25% increase .I am looking for EPS of just over 4 cents,ie 4.1cents. So project PE is under 10. With projected growth of approx. 10 to 12% that PE is fine for me.Now with a net dividend yield of about 8% I am getting very excited.!!
So with the result due within 3 weeks, I will have a good idea whether I will achieve 33% or more return from PGW over the next year.
That 33% will be made up from 25% share price growth [39.5 cents to 49.5 cents] and my 8% net dividend yield.
Will PGW increase the divie??
Gee whiz,the above was posted 27-07-2014,Seems a long time ago.!
Great dividend,special dividend and the share price at 45 cents is all great news to us shareholders.
With the market waking up to this "sleeping beauty" I feel we are "well positioned."
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15-08-2014, 04:41 PM
#3123
Originally Posted by percy
Gee whiz,the above was posted 27-07-2014,Seems a long time ago.!
Great dividend,special dividend and the share price at 45 cents is all great news to us shareholders.
With the market waking up to this "sleeping beauty" I feel we are "well positioned."
Well done mate. I take my hat off to anyone who had the courage of their convictions and bought recently when it dipped under 40 cents.
Very well positioned
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15-08-2014, 04:57 PM
#3124
Member
Agreed Roger. Have myself been accumulating PGW for 3 years now and the SP has been all over the place in that time. Very happy to have it has my biggest holding. Onwards and upwards.
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15-08-2014, 06:55 PM
#3125
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Based on an ex-dividend share price of 39.5c, we are looking at a PE of 10.1. 10.1 is not a no growth PE. Mark is going to have to work hard to grow earnings growing forward and the market is already pricing in that he will succeed. As an an investment prospect I would argue PGW is now a dividend play only at an ex-dividend price of 39.5c.
SNOOPY
Snoopy, I think you may be looking in the rear mirror. Brokers are unanimously in disagreement with you over your no-growth call. Broker estimates for FY15 are 0.046,0.042,0.045. Broker targets are 50c+.
Of course time will tell, but I look forward to 3.5+2+2.5=8c + imp credits dividends over the next 13 months. What sort of yield is that? Around 24%!!!
I'm not all in yet, but I will be looking to add if the AGM guidance is in line with the brokers.
Snoopy, I recall you bought in the high 20c. Nice trade if you just exited.
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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16-08-2014, 02:06 PM
#3126
Originally Posted by noodles
Snoopy, I think you may be looking in the rear mirror. Brokers are unanimously in disagreement with you over your no-growth call. Broker estimates for FY15 are 0.046,0.042,0.045. Broker targets are 50c+.
What no growth call? My PE of 10 estimated still implies growth.
If underlying growth is estimated to be around 10% (from 4.0eps in FY2014), to say 4.4c eps in FY2015 that is still only half of Roger's 5.0c eps end point growth expectation.
If broker's think earnings of 4.4c justify a share price 50c I would suggest their assumed multiple is too high. Have those brokers made any allowance for droughts floods currency strains etc.? I thought not. A PE of 12 might be appropriate at the bottom of the business cycle, but not at the top. I suspect those analysts experience in PGW falls short of the ups and downs over 17 years I have been investing in it. Pain is a very good teacher!
Of course time will tell, but I look forward to 3.5+2+2.5=8c + imp credits dividends over the next 13 months. What sort of yield is that? Around 24%!!!
Arbitrarily choosing a twelve month period to incorporate three dividend payments earned over an 18 month period does not help your case. I diagnose a case of 'dividend fever' here, and you are by no means the most acute sufferer on this thread Noodles.
Snoopy, I recall you bought in the high 20c. Nice trade if you just exited.
Yes I did buy in the high 20s, but al that good work was undone by earlier higher priced purchases. After 17 years, I finally just broke even last week! Mind you that does not include the dividends received over that time.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 16-08-2014 at 02:14 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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16-08-2014, 04:34 PM
#3127
With your 17 years poor history with this stock I think I will side with the brokers' forecasts!!!!!! lol.
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16-08-2014, 10:28 PM
#3128
Member
Hi SNOOPY, appreciate your views. Cheers!
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16-08-2014, 11:23 PM
#3129
Originally Posted by Snoopy
If underlying growth is estimated to be around 10% (from 4.0eps in FY2014), to say 4.4c eps in FY2015 that is still only half of Roger's 5.0c eps end point growth expectation.
Roger undershot on the dividend announcement. He bullishly predicted 2c. Instead we got 3.5c. Maybe he is being conservative over the 5c eps as well. And hats off to Roger for making that dividend call well before the announcement.
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Arbitrarily choosing a twelve month period to incorporate three dividend payments earned over an 18 month period does not help your case. I diagnose a case of 'dividend fever' here, and you are by no means the most acute sufferer on this thread Noodles.
Actually, it is 3 dividend payments in the next 12 months and 2 weeks (not 18 months as you suggest). My 24% is a bit light actually.
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Yes I did buy in the high 20s, but al that good work was undone by earlier higher priced purchases. After 17 years, I finally just broke even last week! Mind you that does not include the dividends received over that time.
SNOOPY
I wish I had so much capital I could hold a loser for 17 years.
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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17-08-2014, 08:09 AM
#3130
[QUOTE=noodles;498545]Actually, it is 3 dividend payments in the next 12 months and 2 weeks (not 18 months as you suggest). My 24% is a bit light actually.
Thanks for your sound logic.
May pay me to pay more attention and think longer than just a year ahead.!!
Another two weeks makes a HUGE difference.!
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