PGW - PGG Wrightson

**BlackPeter** · 13-01-2015, 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by nextbigthing

What does a drought mean for PGW?

Well, just lets look at the last big drought and how PGW did during that time:

According to NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10903236) and other sites, the summer 2012/13 brought the worst drought for New Zealand in 70 years, so I assume this period qualifies for comparison?

PGW was at that stage still in recovery mode from the big bungles it made leading into the GFC ... and ended up with a quite reasonable (though not super flash) result in the 2013 financial year: http://www.pggwrightson.co.nz/Userfi...ber%202013.pdf. Obviously - they had as well a huge goodwill write off in 2013 (making the numbers look terrible), but this was unrelated to the weather conditions (more related to the stupidity of the previous board).

Interesting to observe ... The PGW share price tanked in the first half of 2013 (dropping from the high 40'ies down into the high 20'ies) ... and the trend reversed in the second half after the market (probably?) starting to understand that the drought wasn't that bad for PGW after all.

So - if we take the past as a guide and acknowledge that this years drought distribution is somewhat different than in 2012/13 (more in the South and East) as well as that PGW shareholders are at current probably not that nervous anymore than they have been in 2013 ... I would think that if the drought continues, the PGW share might end up somewhat softer in the first part of this year (maybe 30'ies, very unlikely 20'ies - buying opportunities?) and expect this years result, though likely weaker than last year, still to turn out quite solid.

I guess ... at the end PGW is providing mainly staples for the farmers: they can't stop to feed their stock, to sow seeds and to fertilize, or to buy and sell stock, but they still will feel that they have overall less disposable income.

Discl: holding (though reduced at last year's peak)

**GR8DAY** · 13-01-2015, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by percy

Sorry you have retired from trading,and welcome to the boring old f.rt dividend loving club!!!!
Noodles started an excellent thread;"10%+Dividend payers for next year." You will love it!!!
PGW are due to report late February,and I expect a dividend early March.
Sorry I have no idea what it will be?
ps.There is some good posts on this thread,go back to page 212,and read from there onwards.Well worth the effort.

Cheers Percy......I will look into that thanks. Yes looking to de-risk a little and retire properly (as an oldsh fart) on the back of divis......shudve done it years ago actually, but never too late i say!!

**sb9** · 27-01-2015, 01:46 PM

Looks like the tide has turned up a notch....

**sb9** · 29-01-2015, 01:22 PM

Wow...big volumes in the last few days followed by good jump in sp as well..

**see weed** · 29-01-2015, 01:46 PM

good aye, 50c here we come. Still not going to sell. To good a dividend.

**noodles** · 29-01-2015, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by see weed

good aye, 50c here we come. Still not going to sell. To good a dividend.

PGW still sits below average broker target of 51c. Most dividend plays sit ABOVE target. So lots of scope for appreciation as we approach the dividend announcement.

**GR8DAY** · 29-01-2015, 03:23 PM

.....I think? the best dividend yield on the market is under-pinning PGW. Where else can you get 11%pa plus hopefully a capital appreciation?? From what I can gather this on-going drought may actually have a positive impact on revenue also .....cockys quitting stock now only to re-purchase them when the rain does finally arrive.....PGW clipping the ticket each time. Feel sorry for the poor old farmers but HAY, .......what do you do?

**bunter** · 29-01-2015, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by GR8DAY

. Where else can you get 11%pa plus hopefully a capital appreciation??

see '10%' thread, e.g. NZR - 20% gross div.

**BFG** · 29-01-2015, 05:56 PM

Originally Posted by see weed

good aye, 50c here we come. Still not going to sell. To good a dividend.

Hey see weed, have to get that money from somewhere to buy more ATM stock and milk eh?

PGW is seeing a nice uptick along with all the other solid, divvy yielding companies of late. If the others are to go by, PGW has quite a way to run before it's fairly valued. 50 cents would be a major milestone if surpassed and held.