PGW - PGG Wrightson

[root]

Interesting article saying agricultural based companies and countries may be heading for good times.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/markets/ne...0628897&pnum=0

[flyingfox]

Anyone has some technical analyse?I only know this stock is undervalued now, but losing my patient waiting for the uptrend....maybe I should leave it and look back after a year.

[Dr_Who]

Anyone has some technical analyse?I only know this stock is undervalued now, but losing my patient waiting for the uptrend....maybe I should leave it and look back after a year.

How do you know it is undervalued? 2010 PE of 23x looks expensive to me.

[Balance]

How do you know it is undervalued? 2010 PE of 23x looks expensive to me.

Oh dear - still cannot calculate PER!

[Balance]

No need to be defensive or insulting, Dr Who. It was a genuine inquiry to get some figures to look at. You made the assertion that ELD is very cheap compared to PGW.

Here's my take on the situation from publicly available information :

PGW is forecasting $24.1m so is currently trading on a forecast PER of 19 for 2010.

ELD is forecasting $54m so ELD trading on PER of 11.3 for 2010 but note that it is not taxed - so comparative PER is actually 16.2.

Note also that ELD's forecasts are dependent upon some asset sales. You might want to check on the progress of the asset sales - it's running $60m behind schedule. In fact, ELD has had to write down the value of Hi-Fert by 80%.

So knock $4m profit off ELD's forecasts - PER is now 17.5X.

The real upside to both stocks are going to be in 2011 when the benefits of the recapitalization and restructuring kick in.

I am happy to stick with PGW. Bobcat summed up the reasons why PGW looks good - solid balance sheet, solid industry position and restructuring behind the company.

Plus Agria could move at any time to increase its shareholding - Bobcat & I will consider our options at that time.

For Dr Who's benefit.

Cheers!

[Phaedrus]

Losing my patient waiting for the uptrend....maybe I should leave it and look back after a year.

You sound like an incompetent doctor! - Maybe you are one of those impatient fundamentalist types as well!
PGW appears to have stopped falling, but there is no evidence of any clear reversal as yet.
See how the OBV triggered an isolated Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how there was an isolated trendline break Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how the other 5 indicators featured here have not signalled a buy yet?
See how the Market Strength Indicator still has the plot highlighted in Red?
See how all of these indicators kept you out of PGW while the price halved?
See the little face in the lower right hand corner?

[Balance]

Not sure where you got 23 from - last rough calc I did was closer to 10. Looking forward, PGW operates on about an EPS of 7c so I'd suggest that PGW is undervalued - (but that calc is a bit confused by recent events )- but of course there are plenty of sellers who don't think the same way so why worry - just lap up the good prices and wait for sellers to wise up and dry up.

Can't see 10 myself. Maybe in 2011, but not 2010.

Meantime, please do us a favor and send Dr Who a calculator. I think he must be using the abacus and flicked the wrong buttons.

[flyingfox]

You sound like an incompetent doctor! - Maybe you are one of those impatient fundamentalist types as well!
PGW appears to have stopped falling, but there is no evidence of any clear reversal as yet.
See how the OBV triggered an isolated Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how there was an isolated trendline break Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how the other 5 indicators featured here have not signalled a buy yet?
See how the Market Strength Indicator still has the plot highlighted in Red?
See how all of these indicators kept you out of PGW while the price halved?
See the little face in the lower right hand corner?

I was just waiting for you mate, very helpful thanks, ok at least it stop falling before reached my cost, but i'm betting my interest cost, that's why I'm losing patient........
Anyway, Dr please give me a yell when you think the price is not expensive anymore- if that day will come eventually.

[Balance]

Sorry Balance, should have said I was looking forward and not backwards.

Just checked out a couple of broker sites and, yes, at least one has a PE of 23 ... Others appear to have given up even trying to calculate, e.g DB

23x must be where Dr Who is working for or dealing with then.

That's good as Dr Who has been very good at reflecting current market sentiment. When he gets really negative, BUY!

[Dr_Who]

When he gets really negative, BUY!

You said exactly the same thing for MYR and KMD LOL