PGW - PGG Wrightson

[GR8DAY]

......"GUT-O-METER" right again and bailed last week! (sorry holders, but just gotta go with that gut instinct........proving to be very reliable) Probably nothing wrong with the company either....apart from too high a SP at the moment.

[noodles]

PGW down 3c today to 43c on the back of a Goldman Sachs/JB Were recommendation to SELL, citing the big price rise in recent weeks, plus that they deem PGW to be a "low quality business".

I disagree with their analysis, and am tempted to buy more should the price drop further.

Hi Sparky,
Where do you see FY13/14 eps?

How does it vary from Goldman Sachs/JB Were?

Cheers,
Chris

[winner69]

From buy to accumulate

Does that mean current shareholders can still buy, ie accumulate ....but if you don't own you shouldn't buy

Or does accumulate mean buy ....but not too many

Always wondered and never the fie print n the disclaimers

[noodles]

I don't have the GSJBW report, I have only seen a brokers commentary.

I bought in back in November based on FY2013 with EPS of 4.1cps, and accumulated more when I saw that Forsyth Barr increased their assumptions to 4.3cps (see my post 2556 above).

Upon comparing the November and January analysis, it seems that Forbarr are expecting EPS to grow at more like 9% plus over the next few years, instead of 7-8% (from their November report). This probably reflects the Crafar debt repayment as well as some general positive sentiment in Agriservices.

Thanks Sparky,

I like your conviction towards stocks. It's a quality I lack.

This recent decline just feels like a blow off after a hefty rise. I imagine the RSI was well over 70 and the negative report just accelerated things. Should be well supported with earnings at 4cps'ish.

I might even get in if the half year result is decent.

Do you expect to see eps over 2c for the half year?

Cheers

[winner69]

Do punters react when they hear news from NUF and sell their PGW ....even though one provides the seeds for things to grow while the other protect them from nasties and even kills them

Looks like NUF disappointed te market today cutting Aust NZ for the reason

PGW guilty by association?

[Hoop]

Started firing sell signals a week ago...The rapid drop in momentum (red circle) is the reason for your gut feelings ...even the most insensitive guts would have felt this one...
I have this share so how could I not feel it..eh? .... Short termer will be out and after today's support breaks some medium termers may be gone as well.

Did I sell out? ..Nah, hasn't hit my stop/loss yet ....Its a Medium term investment for me as I think this is a bull market correction event. I tend to have loose stops during Bull markets.
My favourite indicator DMI hasn't triggered a sell signal as of yesterday Today price fall won't help but I'm hoping for a bottom above 40c...if I'm wrong and get chucked out for a small loss I'll take it on the chin, get over it and move on to my next adventure without fuss and fanfare. Tally ho!!!

[noodles]

Do you expect to see eps over 2c for the half year?

Given the seasonality of earnings, I reckon eps>1.5c will be a good result.

From AGM: "First half earnings generally 30% of total year"

[winner69]

Given the seasonality of earnings, I reckon eps>1.5c will be a good result.

From AGM: "First half earnings generally 30% of total year"

your original question - Do you expect to see eps over 2c for the half year?


Lets chane to Do you expect to see eps over 1.5c for the half year?

My answer ...doubt it

[Hoop]

Thanks for the charts Hoop, confirms my opinion it will bottom out around 40 cents. Then it's buy time again!

Can't ignore that old rascal Fibonnacci eh?

I some times do .. actually, I usually forget about it as its not on my top best list but each to their own...you use the indicators that you have the most success with and those that best suits your discipline style........behavioural instincts shown up in a mathematical or chart format can be seen as spooky at times ...Fib is no exception.. eh?

I consider the Fib Retracement as another support line indicator and as you Moosie have pointed out this 50% line is around the 39.5c area...however Moosie you can't relax knowing this as nothing is confirmed that 40c is the bottom ..if all different TA and FA methods point to that 40c mark being the bottom then the odds of it being the bottom has increased..that's all....and...if those 38-40 lines of support is breached it gets technically ugly and you don't want to be exposed to this as there are other better performing stocks to invest in.....

Time to buy at 40c???....I don't know ...PGW has to get first, if it does, then we analyse again...if there are no buy signals it pays to wait (reduce the risk) patience is a virtue.

Below is todays depth snap shot of the state of play at 11.30am...So far today PGW is trading at 44 up 1c..That charted short term level at 44 - 45c is showing up clearly in todays depth diagram below.... It seems as of 11.30am that 44/45 is a very strong resistance zone and even though there is a lot of buying pressure it is at this moment not enough to break back though to 46+c ....interesting to see the depth support at 40,,,eh Moosie.......Depth 40 point is agreeing with the chart's long term 40 support...so far all is going to plan.

[Hoop]

Yes very interesting to see it turning up on the depth chart. I usually rely on depth to confirm the technical specs. If it all matches up, buy/sell time (also taking into account the gut-o-meter).

I don't mind risk on a short/medium term correction, as long as the long-term trend is up. No catching falling knives for me!

Thanks again!

Great to hear you still have 10 fingers
You have a couple more than me