PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Queenstfarmer]

Believe or not, as long as Mr Lai want, he can easily get funding from china to buy another half pgw, just when this will happen. China agriculture is a major part of new nation five years plan.

Just waiting for balance to jump in on this. Have to agree with him...only a matter of time before PGW follow in FPA's footsteps.

[Food4Thought]

As a general overview of PGW... if you need quality and quantity supply to feed people... this is a low price stock, with exceptional technology in this "field" of providing higher yields/returns, the network in place to supply good quantities of seed etc from geographically diverse assets... PGW ticks all these boxes. I look at this stock and go wow, long term... long term this is enormous. Kind of like Aged Health Care in the developed world... The stock is cheap... cheap for economies with monumental needs due to a highly strained local food supply economy... the potential for PGW... that's how I see it. Don't sell it cheap.

[Master98]

As a general overview of PGW... if you need quality and quantity supply to feed people... this is a low price stock, with exceptional technology in this "field" of providing higher yields/returns, the network in place to supply good quantities of seed etc from geographically diverse assets... PGW ticks all these boxes. I look at this stock and go wow, long term... long term this is enormous. Kind of like Aged Health Care in the developed world... The stock is cheap... cheap for economies with monumental needs due to a highly strained local food supply economy... the potential for PGW... that's how I see it. Don't sell it cheap.

NZ investors didn’t see it until someday this iconic company gone for overseas hand, sad isn’t it.

[Queenstfarmer]

One has to question the first sale this morning. 100 shares sold at 39c. Take away the fee of $30 and you're left with $9?

[Hoop]

One has to question the first sale this morning. 100 shares sold at 39c. Take away the fee of $30 and you're left with $9?

As seen on the depth there is no sell orders at 39c..... therefore .....This will be a completion of both... an earlier buy and a sell order....could be a tidy up (dropping the sell price 1c to get rid of the residual) to complete a much larger sell order.

There's just one fee for completed orders

[Queenstfarmer]

I get what you're saying...however if that were the case...the 100 shares and the drop wldve registered at 10am. Still only 100 shares sold. Yes there is no sell at 39c...however you or I cld jump on now and sell 100 shares at 39 and they will instantly sell due to the buy side at this price.

[Queenstfarmer]

Also...I can't see that there wouldve been any residual from the day before as all the sales were at 40c and there are still 4 sellers at 40c. So how does it drop to 39 on a volume of 100? Enlighten me!

[stoploss]

Also...I can't see that there wouldve been any residual from the day before as all the sales were at 40c and there are still 4 sellers at 40c. So how does it drop to 39 on a volume of 100? Enlighten me!

the sell order( if it was partially filled) could have been from a week ago @ 41,42,43 wherer ever . Then at what ever time it has transacted today they have moved the order down to .39 to transact.

[Snoopy]

I would imagine that within ten years he wld be talking about a substantial amount of cows...a great deal more?? than 400,000?

Yes QStF what you are saying is quite possible. We really don't know how fast China will be able to develop dairy farms, and they could surprise on the upside. I don't think you can say that just because there is a lot of land available in China, that means you can turn it into dairy farms though. For example Alan Lai has just taken a multi-million dollar hit, via his vehicle Agria, because the leased land he has signed up to in China will not be able to produce the forecast yields when he signed up for the leases. Reading between the lines the soil quality and potential for crop growth just isn't up to it.

Some might say that this just proves the market exists for supplementary feed. But I don't think it is as simple as this. I think combined with the supplementary feed cows need water. And if that isn't available, then all the dry hay you can get won't sustain your cows.

I don't claim to be a better estimator for dairy farm development in China than Alan Lai. The problem I have with Lai is that his claims are consistently higher, by a factor of ten in this case, than comparable real examples. So even if I have underestimated the number of dairy cows in China by a factor of three, Lai still claims he can sell three times as much silage per cow as the comparable Uruguayan example. And in addition Lai's claim is consistent with having 100% market share for silage, even though he has never sold a single hay bail in China. A 20 or 50 percent divergence with forecasting I would be tolerant of. But with Lai in this case, the error on base case figures is 1000%.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Believe or not, as long as Mr Lai want, he can easily get funding from china to buy another half pgw, just when this will happen. China agriculture is a major part of new nation five years plan.

Master I guess if you repeat this 'China will come to the rescue' phrase often enough to yourself you may end up believing it. But I have to ask you if cash is so readily available to Lai as you claim, why did he have to renegotiate the Agria loan with LIC, that he technically defaulted on, on such onerous terms?

Have you ever looked at the balance sheet of Agria? Do you understand that Agria is making huge losses and is cashflow negative, even off one of PGWs best years? Do you appreciate that Alan Lai now lives in Singapore, and that Agria is his private fiefdom, a kingdom in which the Chinese government has no say?

Do you appreciate that Lai has given dividend guarantees to the Chinese government vehicle New Hope? IOW the Chinese government is planning on taking cash out of Agria Asia, not putting more money into it. Do you appreciate that New Hope can force Agria to repurchase their share of Agria Asia in the next couple of years at an undisclosed price I would guess is cost? That could mean more huge losses for Agria.

Why do you think that the Chinese government will bail out Alan Lai, an independent Singaporean citizen?

SNOOPY