PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Master98]

if this share act same behavior as previous years then share price will tumble after ex divvy.

[couta1]

if this share act same behavior as previous years then share price will tumble after ex divvy.

Never can tell with an irrational market meanwhile the Mexican standoff continues between the 51and 52 cent crowd. Interesting watching the games being played here someone pulled their order of 200k shares on at 51c and sold them at 52c off market, I wonder if the market doesn't want it to close off below 52c today meaning 50 c open tomorrow and keep price above 50c, just thinking aloud here.

[Beagle]

True. However looks like that all these hounds are already too intoxicated and forgot the hunt for the booze. Current depth shows 850k bids (@ avg 49.2 cents) and nearly 2.5 Million asks (at avg 52.8 cents). Does not look like a pre-ex-divvie spike to me. Funny share - just wondering what the price will do after today - 45 cents anybody in response to the hangover?

Not sure I follow your logic mate. As an experienced investor you'd already be very familiar with the theory and practice behind dividend stripping. If not, recall how many investors actively targeted PGW and AIR last year when both stocks had special dividends combined with their final divvy's. In both cases those companies took longer than the usual few weeks to recover the dividend, (something seasoned dividend strippers would have been aware was likely given the size of those divvies) but in both cases investors buying either just before they went ex or immediately afterwards did very well didn't they !!

This divvy hound just grabbed another 74k shares at match price of 51c didnt want to get into a dog fight all day waiting in a big que

In like a hungry Beagle..good buying mate

Consensus broker EPS is 5.0 cps and the major shareholders wants / needs as much divvy as they can get so I see no reason why we won't get another special this year so working on paying it all out and including full imputation credits we're looking at 6.94 cps gross. I'd say the divvy hounds will be howling with delight again this year.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure I follow your logic mate. As an experienced investor you'd already be very familiar with the theory and practice behind dividend stripping. If not, recall how many investors actively targeted PGW and AIR last year when both stocks had special dividends combined with their final divvy's. In both cases those companies took longer than the usual few weeks to recover the dividend, (something seasoned dividend strippers would have been aware was likely given the size of those divvies) but in both cases investors buying either just before they went ex or immediately afterwards did very well didn't they !!


In like a hungry Beagle..good buying mate

Consensus broker EPS is 5.0 cps and the major shareholders wants / needs as much divvy as they can get so I see no reason why we won't get another special this year so working on paying it all out and including full imputation credits we're looking at 6.94 cps gross. I'd say the divvy hounds will be howling with delight again this year.

Hi Roger, all good ... though I am not quite sure what we currently observe is wide spread dividend stripping (as defined here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_stripping). If it is - shouldn't there be (pre ex div) more bidders who want to "strip" the dividend later (after ex div) than sellers who seem to be interested in foregoing their divvie (not sure, why?) ?

[Beagle]

Hi BP, I'm not sure I understand the depth of selling at 52/3 either ? Maybe people are concerned with the drought's effects on the agri sector but as far as I'm concerned the company only very recently upgraded its 2015 forecast and the drought was already in full effect so its effects are probably already pretty well understood by management, I would have thought. I think divvy strippers are more likely to target final divvies which are higher especially when they include special divvies.

Stock currently trades on a 2015 PE of 10 and a gross dividend yield of 5/0.7 = 6.94 / 50 (presuming it settles immediately ex divvy at 50 cents) of 13.9% which makes it a good yield investment IMHO.
FWIW if anyone's interested, I hold a modest position, circa 6% portfolio allocation...its the agricultural sector so I think it pays to be a bit conservative with allocation. I'm probably a bit too conservative here and would be keen to raise it to around 10%, (I have three hungry dogs to feed that aren't hounds so have to do the hounding for them LOL), on any meaningful correction.

[see weed]

[QUOTE=couta1;563279]

The dividend hounds will be in full cry today [/QUOTE) This divvy hound just grabbed another 74k shares at match price of 51c didnt want to get into a dog fight all day waiting in a big que

So that was you couta. I saw that 84,000 this morning and thought I would wait. Been waiting since 27/2/15 but bought 40,000 in a separate order last friday. Hopefully lots of 51ers will sell at 15 min close today

[Master98]

Basically uncertainty of commodity prices and mother of nature means pgw is always uncertainty, generally second half contribute nearly 70% of whole year earnings, bad second half could eat those gain on first half,I would wait for pgw trading update early july, then know where to go.

[see weed]

Bought 90,000 before last div. 6 and 7 months ago at average .455c = $3,150 div. - tax. Today the value of shares are up $4,950 plus div. $3,150 = $8,100. The sp drifted back a couple of cents after div. for a couple of weeks, then took off up to 48c to 50c. Might happen again this time and maybe get up to 56c to 58c in 6 months time, so am not too concerned if get the next lot of shares at 51or 52c.

[see weed]

[QUOTE=see weed;563311]

So that was you couta. I saw that 84,000 this morning and thought I would wait. Been waiting since 27/2/15 but bought 40,000 in a separate order last friday. Hopefully lots of 51ers will sell at 15 min close today

Yaba daba do, mine have gone through at 51c.

[Snoopy]

With the Agria holding 'locked up' for index weighting purposes, and PGW flirting with 50c at what must be near the top of the natural cycle I make the following call: PGW will never again be part of the NZX50.

For me that means I must reduce my holding, because I have made a rule that I won't hold over a certain dollar amount of value for any share I hold outside of the NZX50. I was hanging out for PGW to return to the NZX50. But I can't forecast a realistic scenario where that will become possible.

The problem is the dairy payout forecast isn't up. The dairy products auction "auction prices" are up, yes. But those prices are still below what is required for Fonterra to make their best estimate payout. The other problem is that dairy prices are up because of drought in NZ. Many dairy farmers are drying off their cows because of a lack of feed.

(Decent Milk Price) x (Zero Milk for sale) = (Zero Income)

I took a tiny slither of capital off the market today. Reduced by average PGW holding price from 44.5c to 43.5c. Woo Hoo! OK my buying over the years has not left me with the profit that some of you latecomers have.

I am predicting a really good first half result, and a decent interim dividend mainly as a result of the livestock division. farmers desperately quitting their stock means good turnover at the stockyards even if it is PGW that will be making the profit - not farmers. The problem I think will be the outlook. Mark 'the dewd' Dewdney may just make his forecast of beating last years result on an annual basis. But I can't see FY2016 being as buoyant.

discl: Sold down, but no plans to quit my holding.

First half result a little better than I expected. But took the opportunity to unload a few more shares late last week at 52c cum-dividend. I still have 3/4 of my highest previous high holding left. So not deserting the ship. Average holding price now 42cps. So even with the sales I am still behind a lot of you!

Just rebalancing because I think the earnings and dividend may shrink in FY2016 and FY2017. The farming cycle doesn't stay at the top forever. I think there are plenty of signs (milk price, drought) that things are going to get worse from here.

I know that every cloud has a silver lining. Some see the drought as fuel for a big increase in irrigation sales. I can tell you this won't happen, because there won't be enough farmers with cash in the bank to do it. No cash. no collateral => no loan.

Mark Dewdney doing a fantastic job, but I keep remembering the old Buffettism.

"When great management takes over an average business, it is usually the business that leaves with its reputation intact."

Have to side with Master98 on this one I'm afraid!

SNOOPY

discl PGW shareholder who has been through the cycles before