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03-08-2015, 02:02 PM
#3501
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03-08-2015, 02:38 PM
#3502
Originally Posted by Toasty
Collateral?
Probably at worst a few hundred thou and a tarnished reputation .... and the distraction it will be for some managers
Last edited by winner69; 03-08-2015 at 02:39 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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03-08-2015, 03:01 PM
#3503
IIRC, the last one against the agricultural sector cost them $5.5mill in ~1996/7 - meat companies over weekly schedule pricing
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04-08-2015, 10:25 PM
#3504
Next Big Question
Originally Posted by Roger
I hovered up a few extra at the close at 46 cents. Trading sum a juicy divvy in a couple of months I reckon that's good buying.
Roger,
You seem bullish on PGW generally, yet bearish on HNZ due to its exposure to dairy. Granted they're different companies with different revenue streams and risks etc but surely a complete dairy meltdown is going to be almost as bad for PGW. Big irrigation units, supplemental feed, store supplies etc would all be hit hard. Sheep and beef etc will keep ticking along but so will the other revenue streams for HNZ. I appreciate the effect is different, ie large loan right downs versus reduced sales but the overall affect would be the similar as a proportion perhaps.
Thoughts?
Appreciate your work as always.
Disc hold both.
NBT
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06-08-2015, 02:38 PM
#3505
Originally Posted by Roger
I hovered up a few extra at the close at 46 cents. Trading sum a juicy divvy in a couple of months I reckon that's good buying.
Looks like somebodies also hovered up at 46c this morning. Was that you Roger? Results out next Tuesday.
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06-08-2015, 02:47 PM
#3506
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06-08-2015, 03:17 PM
#3507
I felt like crying when I heard a sharemillker on the radio this morning saying after culling a few of his herd he was then going to sell his tractor and to get a bit more cash. (Shouldn't cry as he probably had 2 )
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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06-08-2015, 03:38 PM
#3508
In times like these farming has become a SIZE game. The bigger the farm(s) the easier you can ride out the hard times (you still need to be careful and prudent with consumable farm resources). This is also where the international trend of farm-buying co-op-group schemes will eventually displace traditional nz farmers.
Roger is right though... PGW have/are creating diversity.
Last edited by arc; 06-08-2015 at 03:39 PM.
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06-08-2015, 04:03 PM
#3509
Originally Posted by arc
In times like these farming has become a SIZE game. The bigger the farm(s) the easier you can ride out the hard times (you still need to be careful and prudent with consumable farm resources). This is also where the international trend of farm-buying co-op-group schemes will eventually displace traditional nz farmers.
Roger is right though... PGW have/are creating diversity.
Its not necessarily about size. the farmers who started dairying at the last milk price peak and taking as well a lot of leverage, they are now in trouble ... while the farmers who are running their operation already for a number of cycles are typically much better off. As well - farmers who run a diversified business will be fine (remember - red meat is currently doing quite well). The farmers who put all their eggs into the diary basket look less flash.
So maybe you are right - in a way it is about size, but BIG is not good. Small is beautiful and diversity in farming is as crucial as in investing. Just a bit of common sense, really - but unfortunately common sense is (not just in farming) not so common after all.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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06-08-2015, 04:21 PM
#3510
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Its not necessarily about size. the farmers who started dairying at the last milk price peak and taking as well a lot of leverage, they are now in trouble ... while the farmers who are running their operation already for a number of cycles are typically much better off. As well - farmers who run a diversified business will be fine (remember - red meat is currently doing quite well). The farmers who put all their eggs into the diary basket look less flash.
So maybe you are right - in a way it is about size, but BIG is not good. Small is beautiful and diversity in farming is as crucial as in investing. Just a bit of common sense, really - but unfortunately common sense is (not just in farming) not so common after all.
I must agree, Its a complex issue and yes sometimes bigger is definitely not "better".... more is just more, until it becomes top heavy and Titanics..
I fully agree with the diversity element, and the ability of small players to change track within limited timeframes.
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