PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Bling_Bling]

PGW sold off assets to cover huge debt lol

[Mick100]

Warning comes as producers seek aid, citing woes last year
By Bruce A. Mohl, Globe Staff | April 12, 2007

The price of milk and some other dairy products are headed for record highs this summer, with raw milk prices expected to jump as much as 40 cents a gallon since last year, according to industry officials.

Officials at H.P. Hood, the Chelsea-based dairy, said the price farmers receive for raw milk has been rising steadily and will rise at least another 25 cents during the summer . As a result, retail prices for milk, ice cream, and cottage cheese will increase, although by how much is unclear. Retailers declined to comment yesterday.

"We have an unprecedented situation," said Mike Suever , senior vice president for milk procurement at Hood.

The warnings about sharply higher raw milk prices come at a time when Massachusetts dairy farmers and their counterparts in several other Northeastern states are pushing hard for financial aid from state regulators. Dairy farmers say low prices and high production costs last year devastated their businesses. But Hood, other dairies, and supermarket chains say price supports are unnecessary, pointing to the sharp uptick in prices as evidence.

Senator Stephen M. Brewer , a Democrat from Barre who is seeking state financial help for Massachusetts' 167 dairy farmers, said the escalation in prices is good news. "But it doesn't obviate the need to deal with the debt these farmers have incurred over the last year," he said. Brewer said farmers need an immediate infusion of $3 million to $12 million from the state.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

MICK, I can only say what i did. I sold out at $2-20 average when it hit my time line in dec and bought at $1-85 in feb. I find charts mixed with a bit of common sense the way to go. My time line told me to get out my common sense told me that the share was underpriced buy back in. Tread lines is no way to buy a share fundamental analysis is. The tech side of it comes into its own at the sell end. The herd had gone to far and was dithering about before running to far in the opposite direction. macdunk

SNOOPY is this the loss you were talking about.Your old mate macdunk keeping you honest. Macdunk

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

MICK, I can only say what i did. I sold out at $2-20 average when it hit my time line in dec and bought at $1-85 in feb. I find charts mixed with a bit of common sense the way to go. My time line told me to get out my common sense told me that the share was underpriced buy back in. Tread lines is no way to buy a share fundamental analysis is. The tech side of it comes into its own at the sell end. The herd had gone to far and was dithering about before running to far in the opposite direction. macdunk

SNOOPY is this the loss you were talking about.Your old mate macdunk keeping you honest. Macdunk

No I'm talking about the shares you bought at $1.85 in February which you subsequently sold at what price?

SNOOPY

[duncan macgregor]

[quote]quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Snoopy wrote
A lot of water has to flow under the bridge before NZ farmers conquer Asia. The one thing that is certain about farming is that the unexpected happens. If the weather beats down the price of PGW shares in the future, as it surely will, then I am a buyer. In the meantime I am quite happy to hang onto my holding. If PGW really is on a P/E of 21 a lot of the improvement over the next year or two is already built into the share price. Personally, I'll be chuffed if PGW hits $2 over the next twelve months.

SNOOPY, What a whole lot of guff you write. Are you expecting us to believe that you were holding shares in a company at $2-30 something watch them fall to $1-70 something then say you would be happy if they reach $2-00 in 12 months. Either you have no system at all or your real name is Mary Holm.

To tell you the truth Macdunk, I wasn't watching. If the PGW share price really did get up to $2.30 I think it would have been before the 40% ongoing profit downgrade. So at the time $2.30 would have represented a P/E of 17-18. Not out of line for a growing company.
So even if I had been watching, I don't think that I would have sold.

What I do know, following the compulsory acquisition of my Carter Holt shares earlier this year, is that I now have only one direct exposure to NZs farming backbone - my shares in PGW. And if anything my relative holding in this sector is too low. I have looked at other ways of getting exposure to farming. IMO holding PGW is still the best way to do it. I don't think that quitting the sector completely, becaue of some transient movement in share price that does not go outside my fair value valuation range, is a sound long term investment strategy.

quote:
Fundamental analysis as you have proved, is as useless as tits on a bull. It all boils down to perception as i have told you in the past.
It is how the investors perceive the market, not the PE.
The market is controlled by emotion, not mathematics.

Short term you are right. F/A isn't necessarily a good predictor of the direction a share price will move. But I don't 'do' short term. I don't trade at all. Long term the market behaves like a weighing machine and that is where ongoing PE matters.

quote:
Look at your analysis on TEL, RBD, pages and pages of what turned into be useless tripe.

On the contrary. TEL and RBD continue to be good dividend paying shares. In the case of TEL in particular, I have been buying significant blocks of shares (well, significant for me) to the exrent that my shareholding has increased by nearly 40% (in share number terms) since the unbundling slump. I would not have had the confidence to do that without my F/A.

quote:
Understanding the investors next move has nothing to do with the PE of a company. This is a very good share to trade, it goes too high then drops to low with no risk of losing the lot. If you trade PGW you will make three times as much as your buy and hold method.

I know farming as a fickle business Macdunk. I have cousins who are farmers. I don't

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy
discl: hold PGW, and surprised to see it up yet again to $1.87 this morning!

Read this thread Snoopy with an open mind. Your past is coming back to haunt you. The first share crash will see you down the gurgler with what you do. Macdunk

I take it you are still in denial then Macdunk?

Both of us had PGW shares in in February at $1.85-$1.87 or whatever. The only reason I am getting at you is that your strategy requires you to sell assuming that Mr Market knows more than you do. My strategy requires me to sell only if a share becomes clearly overvalued. So although I suffered the same fate -as regards the short term decline in the PGW share price- as you did, I didn't sell. That's because I know that short term share price movements are not a useful predictor of medium and long term share price movements.

You saw the share price fall and got out. You thought the PGW share price was going down and so would continue to go down but you were wrong. You also thought that the trading range of PGW shares would be sufficient for you to buy back in at some future date and make huge profits. Yet so far you haven't bought back in, even though the share price is apparently already on the way back to fully valued levels. Your 'strategy' has lead to you churning your portfolio and dropping out of farming completely while you maximize your risk and put all of your money into nickel. It is an unsound way to do things by any measure.

OTOH I saw the share price fall and took the opportunity to buy some more PGW (at $1.60 and $1.59). Plus I have since banked a dividend of 4cps. You call it 'averaging down'. Actually I think I am still 'averaging up' because my average PGW entry price is far less than $1.60.

In reality it is not possible to average up or down. You can only 'average across' buying at whatever price Mr Market sets which is by default also the market value of each share you already hold. To find out if it is worth 'averaging across', you need to know something about the fundamentals of the company. The fundamentals of a company are not reflected by short term share price movements. That is why I basically ignore Mr Market when I make my investment decisions and intend to continue to do so. Meanwhile I watch you dancing to Mr Market's every whim with some amusement.

At the moment I am sitting on more cash than I have ever had before waiting for an investment home (thanks to repatriation of some overseas investments). So all I can say is that if there is a crash coming, 'bring it on'. I am ready and waiting with my cheque book.

SNOOPY

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, You must be well aware that i only hold nickel stocks on the ASX at this moment in time. You seem to be under some delusion that having sold PGW was a mistake on my part. I sold all my NZ stocks in DEC moved the funds to the ASX. I bought agm at 59c now 84c, mcr that is the one i asked you to look over on sharechat [remember]at $2-15 now$3-80 plus a 6c fully imputed divi. SMY I bought at$2-39 now at $5-45 Thats over 100pc in four months with that one. Smm I bought at $3-20 and sold at $5-94,IGO I bought on the first of march at $4-60 now$7-00 so thats what I did. Look it all up snoopy you were told on the forums before and during the action. What have you done so far this year do you have one company in your portfolio that is equal to my worst one?. The farmer next door reckons your investment style is as good as tits on a bull. MACDUNK

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

SNOOPY, You must be well aware that i only hold nickel stocks on the ASX at this moment in time. You seem to be under some delusion that having sold PGW was a mistake on my part.

You sold your PGW shares in December 2006. Then you rebought bought some PGW shares in February 2007 for $1.85 until a matter of days(?) later you sold at a loss at a price that you *still* haven't disclosed. Not that I'm suggesting that everyone should disclose everything that they do on this forum. It is just that you Macdunk, who make a big thing on being open and honest, go strangely quiet when you crystallize a loss.

quote:
I sold all my NZ stocks in DEC moved the funds to the ASX. I bought agm at 59c now 84c, mcr that is the one i asked you to look over on sharechat [remember]at $2-15 now$3-80 plus a 6c fully imputed divi. SMY I bought at$2-39 now at $5-45 Thats over 100pc in four months with that one. Smm I bought at $3-20 and sold at $5-94,IGO I bought on the first of march at $4-60 now$7-00 so thats what I did. Look it all up snoopy you were told on the forums before and during the action. What have you done so far this year do you have one company in your portfolio that is equal to my worst one?.

Well yes actually. I haven't lost money on any of my shares this year like you did with PGW ;-P.

Actually my best recent call has been to buy Telstra Installment Receipts which are up around 50% in four months. But I have never claimed any 'credit' for that pick because the speed of that price recovery surprised even me! I don't make any predictions about when any of my share selections will recover. I only know that by being on the register I will be there for the recovery ride when it happens.

SNOOPY

[Mick100]

I think I know why macdunk is hounding you snoopy - your probably the only person left who still attempts to make an intelligent response to his nonsense - do yourself a favour and ignore him.
.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


I think I know why macdunk is hounding you snoopy - your probably the only person left who still attempts to make an intelligent response to his nonsense - do yourself a favour and ignore him.
.

Mad MICK Strikes again. You pick on me for selling PGW you pick on me for selling SMM on the ASX forum. You give SNOOPY advice on what you dont do yourself[:o)].You both have a similar investing style buy all the way down and scatter your investments about like eagle sh*t over the countryside. We both know that the dollar is killing exporters your investment into PGW is in denial of that. Incidently I was right and you were wrong with SMM.Your old mate macdunk [Trying to educate the Irish].