PGW - PGG Wrightson

[nztx]

Are these getting scarce now ? Who's hoarding them all ?

[sb9]

Are these getting scarce now ? Who's hoarding them all ?

Donno, but willing buyers keep propping up higher highs..

[Snoopy]

Donno, but willing buyers keep propping up higher highs..

I would suggest it is just a falling currency effect. The more our dollar drops, the better it gets for our farmers growing our world class produce.

SNOOPY

[sb9]

I would suggest it is just a falling currency effect. The more our dollar drops, the better it gets for our farmers growing our world class produce.

SNOOPY

Agree, that's one side of it. I'm sure there's bit more than just the currency effect atm.

[iceman]

Agree, that's one side of it. I'm sure there's bit more than just the currency effect atm.

She just keeps on creeping up and atm a healthy level of bids in the 560-570 range. I'm a bit like you sb9, I'm starting to suspect there is more to this than just the FX rate !!

[sb9]

She just keeps on creeping up and atm a healthy level of bids in the 560-570 range. I'm a bit like you sb9, I'm starting to suspect there is more to this than just the FX rate !!

Someone is happy to keep mopping them up whatever is on offer even at slightly premium price. Wouldn't be surprised if we hit $6 before HY results announced later this month.

[Balance]

Agree, that's one side of it. I'm sure there's bit more than just the currency effect atm.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...boosts-returns

Record prices for our commodities (dairy, meat etc) with the lower NZ$ providing a further boost.

Happy times down at the farm.

Meanwhile, what’s brewing at PGW in their talks with the Chinese?

[Snoopy]

She just keeps on creeping up and atm a healthy level of bids in the 560-570 range. I'm a bit like you sb9, I'm starting to suspect there is more to this than just the FX rate !!

http://<br /> https://www.rnz.co.nz/...boosts-returns

Record prices for our commodities (dairy, meat etc) with the lower NZ$ providing a further boost.

The peak within the last 6 months for the NZD top USD exchange rate came about the end of October 2021 and was US0.72c= NZD1, and it has subsequently fallen around 10% from that peak.

The Global Dairy Price Index, priced in USD, has moved from 1250 to 1450 over the same period, a rise of 16%. In NZD terms that is a rise of (1450/1250 x (72/65) = 28.5%

The PGW share price over that same period rose from around $4.50 to $5.70 today, a rise of 26%. So you might argue the PGW share price is only reflecting current commodity price trends. But then again, despite the ups and downs of farm output prices, a share price reflects the medium future outlook as well, and that continues to be good. So maybe the recent share price rise is not unexpected?

Happy times down at the farm.

You know better than that Balance. Farmers are never happy, only less grumpy ;-P

Meanwhile, what’s brewing at PGW in their talks with the Chinese?

Probably nothing. Alan Lai has his 'get out of jail free card', with the underlying price of PGW shares offsetting any debt that remains at Agria, while utilising the strong PGW dividend flow to pay down debt further. The Chinese government seem content with their own 12.928% stake of 9,758,754 shares (as at 20-10-2020). Looking at the share price chart as regards shares volumes traded only exceeded 50k for one day over the last two months. No evidence here of any meaningful further accumulation that I can see.

SNOOPY

[maclir]

According to The Economist's​ latest “burgernomics” update, a Big Mac cost NZ$7 in New Zealand and US$5.81 in the United States, making the implied exchange rate $1.20.


But the real exchange rate was $1.52, suggesting the New Zealand currency was 20.9 per cent undervalued against the greenback.


How's that change the model, Snoopy

[Snow Leopard]

The peak within the last 6 months for the NZD top USD exchange rate came about the end of October 2021 and was US0.72c= NZD1, and it has subsequently fallen around 10% from that peak.

The Global Dairy Price Index, priced in USD, has moved from 1250 to 1450 over the same period, a rise of 16%. In NZD terms that is a rise of 16% x (72/65) = 18%
....

(1450 / 1250 ) * ( 72 / 65 ) = 1.285

A 28.5% increase