PGW - PGG Wrightson

[mike2020]

I used to use a bull scheme for my dairy cows, very similar GoLivestock only over a shorter timeframe. It saved me short term OD when I needed cashflow elsewhere. It kept the business with the company I bought through and usually I made a profit verses leasing which was and is expensive. It will work for PGW.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410761

PGW reaffirms FY guidance, and announces emission targets......

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410761

PGW reaffirms FY guidance, and announces emission targets......

Have a feeling Elders may be ready to make a move.

[winner69]

Have a feeling Elders may be ready to make a move.

Still likely mate?

Decent takeover ‘premium’ in the current share price so market possibly still hoping Elders are the ones.

[Southern Lad]

Still likely mate?

Decent takeover ‘premium’ in the current share price so market possibly still hoping Elders are the ones.

I suggest that anyone holding out for a near term cash offer from Elders should review Elders recent announcements and share price downward trajectory on the ASX and you will soon realise that Elders has a long way to go to get its own nest in order first. Any debt fuelled purchase of PGW would IMO be absolutely slammed by the market. Even a scrip based takeover doesn’t make sense given the current Elders depressed share price. Elders selling their existing PGW shares is arguably a greater possibility than them purchasing more.

[Balance]

I suggest that anyone holding out for a near term cash offer from Elders should review Elders recent announcements and share price downward trajectory on the ASX and you will soon realise that Elders has a long way to go to get its own nest in order first. Any debt fuelled purchase of PGW would IMO be absolutely slammed by the market. Even a scrip based takeover doesn’t make sense given the current Elders depressed share price. Elders selling their existing PGW shares is arguably a greater possibility than them purchasing more.

Fair comments except that Elders bought its stake to have a big seat at the table when Agria finally decides to sell out - not if but when imo.

[Ricky-bobby]

Having a look at these guys… in terms of market share these guys are doing really well. Farmlands are a shambles and Fruitfed are dominating. Farmers are tightening their belts, so this will have an impact more on the Ag side of the business. What are people thinking?

[Snoopy]

Having a look at these guys… in terms of market share these guys are doing really well. Farmlands are a shambles and Fruitfed are dominating. Farmers are tightening their belts, so this will have an impact more on the Ag side of the business. What are people thinking?

PGW is a well run company, which as you say, has been gaining market share from the co-operative Farmlands group. But like any agricultural group they are subject to the 'vicissitudes', the ebb and flow of rural markets. PGW supply operational necessities rather than 'nice to haves' (like a new tractor). So I think they are well positioned to weather any farming downturn. Unfortunately the coming year doesn't look great for many of our farmers. Dairy in particular looks like it will be under pressure. Horticulture still looks good IMV, unless your Hawkes Bay orchard was wiped out. Yet even if you are recovering from a disaster like that, a company like PGW will be the first port of call to 'get you back on your gumboots'.

I invest in PGW, because I don't like second guessing which rural sub-sector is the best home for my money. An investment in PGW gives you a foot in all camps. The question remains though, at what price is PGW fair value?

Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: On 14 December 2022, Elders agreed to acquire 8,526,245 ordinary shares in PGW from BCA New Continent Agri Hldg. Limited by way of an off market trade for consideration of NZ$4.35 per share (being aggregate consideration of NZ$37,089,165.75) with settlement to occur on 16 December 2022.

When the Chinese government disposed of their stake in December 2022, you can guarantee they sold at a price they considered 'full value'. The Chinese government are long term investors and they are smart. Sure I know the PGW share price was bid up higher than that towards $4.70 after that sale was announced. But IMV this was just momentum NZ investors speculating. Despite what Balance has opined on this thread more than once, Mr. Lai Guanglin has no reason to sell down his Agria stake. Mr. Lai Guanglin is in fact using cashflow from Agria and assets within Agria as security to fund his Hong Kong listed 'China Pipe Group Limited' investment. Lai is well within debt covenants on his transactional borrowings.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post986018

No reason to 'rock the boat' of the status quo.

Outside of 'irrational exuberance', I would say $4.35 is the 'top of the market'. Elders overpaid to get a strategic stake at 'above market value' is my view of the other side of the transaction of the Chinese government stake sell down. So is PGW a buy at $4.05 today? Probably not in my view. The interim dividend was cut from 14cps to 12cps. Last year the final dividend was 16cps. I wouldn't be surprised to see that cut as well, and by more than 2cps. Once the wider rural outlook becomes more widely known, I am expecting the PGW share price to slip back under $4. Nevertheless, I don't see a market rout in PGW shares coming.

SNOOPY

discl: holding

[Snoopy]

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-276

This is so serious that I believe Agria & he were only fined US$3m.

His reputation (& Agria's) is gone as a 'fit' & 'proper' person I would have thought - be fascinating to read the full terms and conditions of the deal made with OIO.

Friday afternoon announcement. It looks like another PGW chair could have a wonky leg?

------------

Governance Announcement Regarding Chair, Mr. Lee Joo Hai


1 (PGW) notes that the PGW Board of Directors have been informed that its Chair, Mr. Lee Joo Hai has been charged in Singapore under certain Singaporean securities regulation in respect to potential lapses in relevant disclosures related to a Singaporean listed company, Hyflux Limited in respect of which Mr. Lee was a director.
The PGW Board notes that these matters are completely unrelated to PGW and the business and operations of PGW.
The PGW Board has considered matters and understands that Mr. Lee is defending these charges. The PGW Board has agreed with Mr. Lee that it is currently considered that the charges and related investigations do not compromise the performance of Mr. Lee’s duties in relation to PGW. The PGW Board (with Mr. Lee abstaining) are of the view that it remains appropriate for Mr. Lee to continue as a Director and Chair of PGW.
The PGW Board has requested Mr. Lee keep the PGW Board updated on the conduct of these investigations and charges laid in Singapore. The PGW Board will accordingly continue to monitor matters and evaluate Mr. Lee’s continued suitability as a Director and Chair of PGW.

--------------

I will be watching to see what comes out of the 'woodwork'. Just as well when all this is resolved there will be nothing to see.....

SNOOPY

[Balance]

Soonest Agria sells out of PGW, the better.

And trigger a takeover which we may or may not decide to accept.