Dashwood's Wall Street

[kittydashwood]

Silver group fires bullet at ETF
Proposed Barclays fund faces opposition; launch in doubt
By John Spence, MarketWatch


BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A group representing companies that use silver for industrial purposes is seeking to block the launch of an exchange-traded fund tied to the precious metal, leading some observers to question whether federal regulators will approve the proposal.

The Silver Users Association, a nonprofit lobby group interested in keeping an orderly silver market, has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to deny an ETF currently in registration from investment manager Barclays Global Investors.

The organization says a silver ETF would create a price squeeze in the metal because the fund would have to buy a large amount of silver to back the fund's shares prior to the launch.

BGI spokesman Lance Berg declined to comment about the silver offering, citing the "quiet period" while the fund is in registration, implying the SEC hasn't slammed the door on the ETF yet.

Still, with all the controversy swirling over the silver ETF, some see the launch in doubt.

"I don't think the silver ETF will be released because the supply is too thin," said David Morgan, editor of the Silver Investor newsletter.

Looking for a silver lining

When BGI first filed its silver ETF in June, many expected a speedy approval process from the SEC because the fund was structured similarly to a pair of existing gold ETFs: StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD: and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU:, which BGI also manages.

The gold ETFs, which hold about $3.4 billion in assets between them, allow investors to buy shares that represent a tenth of an ounce of gold held in a vault. The funds are seen as a convenient, low-cost way for investors to sidestep the costs of buying and storing bullion.

The silver users' group says it's concerned that a silver ETF -- if it became as popular as the gold funds -- would increase the silver market's volatility and drive up prices.

Not everyone agrees. Ross Norman, a director at TheBullionDesk.com, a London-based precious metals research firm, said a silver ETF would bring more liquidity to the silver market. He noted that the two gold ETFs didn't roil markets when their sponsors accumulated bullion prior to the launches.

But the Silver Users Association says the silver market isn't as deep as the gold market.

"A silver ETF would only exaggerate silver's illiquidity given the sheer volume of physical silver needed to be shipped and stored," the group said in its letter to the SEC.

Mining opposition

Industry observers say companies that use silver for industrial purposes, along with silver miners, are lobbying in Washington against the silver ETF.

"My understanding is the SUA has effectively blocked the silver ETF at the SEC," said James Pacetti, president of New York-based consultant ETF International. The SEC as a rule does not comment on financial products in registration.

"The silver mining companies don't want a silver ETF because it may create less demand for their stock, since investors would rather have a pure play on the metal rather than buying mining companies," Pacetti added.

Others say the mining companies would benefit if a silver ETF bolsters demand for the metal and pushes prices -- and profits -- higher. The Silver Institute, an international association of miners, refiners, fabricators and wholesalers of silver, declined to comment on the silver ETF.

But in a conference call with brokerage analysts last week to discuss his company's quarterly results, Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS: Chairman Ross Beaty disagreed with the SUA's claim that a silver ETF would stretch liquidity.

Calling the SUA's position "just plain wrong," Beaty said a silver ETF could provide a useful service for investors, adding that he doesn't believe it would trigger liquidity problems in the silver market.

The SUA says part of its mission is to keep silver prices low and keep the metal readily available for users. The association's members include jewe

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

quote:.

I'm disappointed that Duncan MacGregor is not on that list. He can out-guru (or at least out-talk) all of them put together!

LOL

[kittydashwood]

Reproduced from candlestick forum:

Early this past week both the Dow and the NASDAQ revealed indecisive trading signals. The Dow formed three spinning tops/doji's at a major resistance level, the 10,700 area. The NASDAQ showed indecisive trading days and even pulled back for a day, but Wednesday the NASDAQ formed a hammer type signal. This was an indication that the sellers were not selling with any great conviction. That same information was revealed in the Dow. Although the Dow was pulling back, it was doing so with doji days, revealing that there wasn't any great conviction from the sellers.

DOW

Being able to analyze the investor sentiment at that level provided for an easy trading strategy to implement. After a series of doji's, there were two simple scenarios. Upon witnessing strong selling, that would have confirmed that the dojis at the resistance level were the signs of a reversal. On the other hand, witnessing a bullish candle would have conveyed a large amount of information. First, it would revealed what investor sentiment was going to do after an indecisive trading period. Second, the bullish candle would have breached the 10,700 level that had acted as resistance. As we saw, the Bulls came back into the market on Thursday, closing above the 10,700 level. This now provides a different scenario for the three doji's. Instead of a potential reversal indicator, they now become evidence of profit taking during an uptrend. This is a healthy process in a trend. Having a few days of profit-taking usually extends the length of an uptrend.

The NASDAQ gapping up after the hammer signal and going into new high territory reveals that the profit taking was over and the new buying was very strong. This makes the analysis fairly simple. The uptrend is still in existence and should continue.


__________________________________________________ __________________

FORD sold off heavily now sitting on the 100MVA support at 18$ and more intensive support at 15$, new resistance now at the gap down 22.40. Should be an easy trade if this stock rallys from 18 to test the resistance at 22. Watching for the hammer and a potential Jhook?

Nice trade on CMT entry at $4.80 sold at $7.29
Still holding GROW entry $4.50 now $8.50, this could leap now it's past the 8$ resistance, I will sell at $10

Reduced holding of ENG added to TROW position, (they have great stockpickers and funds which are all outperforming their peers)

Renewed strength in SAN and other South American stocks, holding.
Will aim to open a medium term position on TKF (Turkish ETF), Turkey is in the grip of a long bull and the stocks are still undervalued. Proximity to Europe and the Mid East petrodollars makes this exchange a attractive bet for emerging market allocation over the next 3 mths.

Currently 95% invested.
Aiming to move to a 30% cash position in the week before Christmas.

[kittydashwood]

Halved GROW holding @9.40
Like the look of the GSK dip.
Bird flu in Canada? Damm geese.
Where do they go in winter?
Texas! Florida!
Tammyflu anyone? Watch the fear machine start to grind up after santa's finished his jingle bells rally.

Interesting technicals for bottled water stocks.
Late in the day the big green light from the Fed that now only inflation was the a danger, no mention of the housing bubble. Nicely swept under the carpet to slowly deflate. Homebuilder ETF looks set for a weak start. Bids unfilled today as stocks chased up.
FORD Bounced @ 16.60... A little higher than I thought, waiting is good as today may be just christmas shopping for Small Cap funds who have pretty patchy performance this year.

Pressure back on fertiliser sector, steel still showing deep support.

[|)]

[peat]

apparently mutual funds now have their highest level of investment in stocks (and lowest in cash) ever.

a contrarian signal according to ewi

quote:Elliot Wave .com

Cash levels in stock mutual funds have been tracked for more than 40 years, long enough to see trends in those levels during major bull and bear markets.
During most of those four decades, it was nearly unheard of for the average fund manager's portfolio to have as little as six percent cash; instead it was common for that level to hover at 10 percent or greater.
Cash levels actually stayed above six percent from about 1976 until -- you guessed it -- the late 1990s.
At market lows fund managers hold larger percentages of assets in cash, while at market highs they hold smaller percentages of assets in cash. Thus at times of major opportunity and of great danger, fund managers are the least prepared.
Financial professionals exhibit the same herding behavior that governs private investors, and the notion that fund managers are "less emotional" or "more rational" than shareholders is complete rubbish.
The smallest-ever percentage of mutual fund assets in cash was less than 4%, right at the stock market peak in 2000. Yes, fund managers were more than 96% invested in stocks at the all time highs.

[kittydashwood]

MMLP found languishing on its 300 mva. Seems the insiders are still buying and excercising options. Could have been a good entry point lately....
Will watch next week with interest.

Martin Midstream Partners LP. The Group's principal activity is to provide marine transportation, terminalling, distribution and midstream logistical services. These services are provided for producers and suppliers of hydrocarbon products and by-products, lubricants and other liquids. The Group operates in four segments: LPG Distribution segment purchases LPG primarily from oil refiners and natural gas processors and resell to propane retailers and industrial LPG users in Texas and the southeastern United States. Marine transportation business transports hydrocarbon products and by-products. Fertilizer segment manufactures and markets fertilizer products, which are sulfur-based, and other sulfur-related products to regional wholesale distributors and industrial users. Terminalling business provides storage and handling services for producers and suppliers of hydrocarbon products and by-products, lubricants and other liquids. In 2005, it acquired CF Martin Sulphur LP & Prism Gas Systems I, LP.

Latest Insider Transactions

C S. Massey 500 Open Market Purchase 11/16/2005
Director
Martin resource l l c 417,784 Exercise of Stock Options 11/14/2005
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

[kittydashwood]

PARL short term setup emerging.
In fact the whole sector has been technically a good one to trade.
Godd stuff..MTEX lifts divy, AOB private placement for acquisition. IPAR NATRE both have delisting doubts... avoid.

[kittydashwood]

Well that Paris Hilton wristwatch bought at charity by PARL execs then recreated and launched as a product line. The market loved it.
Nice gains over the shortplay.
These guys could make money out of empty chip wrappers.

Cashing out now sold more GROW as sell signal has emerged. Well have my buy order in at 8.80
Sold out medium term PCU holding for 45% + profits. Copper must be too high????! I fear some major rapid decline in price early January. Will buy in again at 50$.

DESC gave a sell signal which I missed and we are now hopping along the 9.19 support.
SOLD TWTC for a rapid 27% got some of the losses back on remaining ONNN holding CMT sold too early and missed a couple of big up days.

Still holding FORD and TIDE after breaks through stop loss.

[V]

[kittydashwood]

John Stewart
On Balance Volume - Modified
John Stewart (jstewart@sir-inc.com) 12/2/2005 2:31 PM ET
from http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

Many market technical analysts look at something called On-Balance Volume, or OBV, in order to predict future price movements in stocks. Joe Granville introduced the OBV indicator in his 1963 book, Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits. This indicator gives us some insight into what amount of volume is pushing the stock up or down. In order to determine the OBV, you simply take the volume on up days and assign a positive value to it, and then take the volume on down days and assign a negative value to it, thereby keeping a running tally of the sum. This process is illustrated in the chart below.
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Table of On-Balance Volume Method

Why do we care how volume and price are related? The idea behind the OBV indicator is that changes in the OBV will precede price changes. A rising volume can indicate the presence of "smart money" flowing into a security. In the above example, the volume was stronger on the two days in which the stock price rose, indicating that the "smart money" may be accumulating a position in the stock.

In more of a "real world" example, we would chart the OBV and interpret breaks above a selected moving average as bullish and breaks below it as bearish.

If you look at the chart of the Oil Service HOLDRs Trust (OIH: View sentiment for OIHsentiment, chart, options) below you can see where the OBV reading broke above its 20-day moving average in mid-October prior to the large upward move in the security. Buying OIH on that OBV breakout could have led to significant gains.


Daily Chart of Oil Service HOLDRs Trust Since August 2005 With 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages, and OBV Indicator

While using OBV can certainly be beneficial in many trading systems, I decided to tweak the way you calculate this indicator. I figured that adding the volume to your running tally regardless of whether the stock was up $1.00 or just up a penny seemed a little silly. So I introduced an element which compensates for this. Before adding the volume for a positive move in the stock or subtracting it for a negative move, you multiply the volume by the price change. Therefore, if the stock goes up by a penny you only add one percent of the volume total. If the stock goes down two dollars then you would subtract 200 percent of the volume total. This is illustrated in the chart below.


Table of Enhanced On-Balance Volume Method

It make take a little extra work, but you can simulate the process used in the OIH chart above by using Microsoft Excel to create your own modified OBV chart with a 20-day moving average. I did this with the Semiconductors HOLDRs Trust ( SMH: View sentiment for SMHsentiment, chart, options) in the example chart below.


Daily Chart of OBV for the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust Since August 2005 With 20-Day Moving Average

This indicator produced a "sell" signal on October 4 and then a "buy" signal on November 2.

Below is a daily chart of the SMH:


Daily Chart of the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust Since July 2005 With 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages

These signals would have been timed almost perfectly with the high at the beginning of October and the low at the beginning of November.

This is just one variation of an indicator with which I have had some success, but there are an endless number of indicators and variations on these indicators. Play around with them and you just might find something that works for you!

John Stewart (jstewart@sir-inc.com)

[kittydashwood]

XSNX up 35% after being featured by WealthDaily.net newsletter. They have 5.29$ as a target. Present price .38

Here's an extract...

Heed this URGENT message from Jeff Siegel, celebrated and cutting edge editor of Wealth Daily who picked Planet Organic (up +158% in 3 months), Evergreen Solar (up 41% in 2 months), and Gaiam (a gain of 110% for 2005)

Jeff just returned from the largest "Future" Energy conference in America... and he's here to tell you...





A tiny high-tech company, which won the 2005 World Technology Award, just unlocked one of the largest sources of energy ever.

They developed a glass window that acts like a solar panel. The window captures sunlight then quickly converts it into energy.

Whether it's your home or a 40-story skyscraper, this window can heat or cool the building!



The company is incredibly small... trading for a market capitalization of just $47 million. But I think it'll be a billion dollar company within 3 years.


Dear reader:

A tiny high-tech company in California just unlocked one of the largest sources of energy anywhere on Earth.

To give you an idea how much energy is at this company's fingertips, its systems could eventually capture more energy in a single month than Saudi Arabia will produce in the next 50 years!

The breakthrough is something called a solar window.