NWF - NZ Windfarms

[ratkin]

Are you kidding ? They didnt have much to say last year either , they just plod along , not much happening.

No wonder the cheese man Creech is aboard (good things take time)

Main problem i see is a lack of drive by the board. Take the Babcock and brown incident where they bought their share of the company , they didnt seem to try very hard to nail them down to a bargain price.

[ratkin]

Shock , horror, an announcement.

Finally we have some detail on output etc. Any electricity experts on the forum who can translate the following into cash ?

This has shown by optimising the development and siting the
32 Batch 4 turbines in the extension area an expected annual energy yield of 153 Gigawatt
hours per annum is forecast from an installed capacity of 48.5 MW (97 turbines)


In the prospectus they forecast 150 gig from 100 turbines by 2010 now they say 153 gig from 97 turbines
At face value this looks as if they are on track and that the turbines are performing as expected.

[Financially dependant]

Shock , horror, an announcement.

Finally we have some detail on output etc. Any electricity experts on the forum who can translate the following into cash ?

This has shown by optimising the development and siting the
32 Batch 4 turbines in the extension area an expected annual energy yield of 153 Gigawatt
hours per annum is forecast from an installed capacity of 48.5 MW (97 turbines)


In the prospectus they forecast 150 gig from 100 turbines by 2010 now they say 153 gig from 97 turbines
At face value this looks as if they are on track and that the turbines are performing as expected.

yes WOW an announcement.....I have been waiting months for this.....but lost patience and sold out...

The ann looks really good to me.....Without going into to much detail..... the prospectus forcast 159 GWhr from a 100 turbines (cost $1 million each to build) that's 1.59 GWhr per turbine on average. At a wholesale price of power $100/MWhr (10c KWhr) that's $159,000 return pa or 15.9% return on each turbine.

Now they have forcast 95 GWhr per annum from 56 turbines, that's 3.4 GWhr per turbine or $340,000 return pa (34%) on each turbine!

That's quite a big jump!

With cook strait cable still dodgy the whole sale rate in North island must be still as high as forecast if not better, they should be making good money!

Anyone else done some figures?? good to get some clarification..

[Raven]

Looking at the latest spot prices things are a little lower than $100/MWhr. In the North Is the average weekly price for month of May ranged from about $40 up to just under $80. Prices were coming up towards the end of the month, which I guess is to be expected with winter kicking in.

http://www.electricitycommission.gov...rep/index.html

If you use the price of $40/MWhr, at $0.77 the completed project based on 153 GWhr is trading on a P/E of about 9.88,. At a price of $60/MWhr that drops to a P/E of about 6.59 and at $100/MWhr is 4.03. So depending on where you think power prices are going things don't look too bad. I'm not sure what the average wholesale price last year was or what people are predicting this year but I'd be interested to hear anyones predictions.

[scamper]

scamper was also lined up to top up (which would actually be averaging down), but missed the button... aaaah, so sad.
but it is very light volume, maybe our time will be tomorrow when it drops back a bit.
11% rise on $12k sales is not a call for boots and all.

[Raven]

In additional to my earlier post I found a report on the electricity commissions website. Haywards reference point in the North Island for the 2006 year the average price was $78.46, 2007 = $51.87, 2008 = $175. I think NWF puts there power through Haywards but I'm not entirely sure. Quite a variable price range, I guess alot to do with weather. Hope this is useful in peoples calculations.

http://www.electricitycommission.gov...ale/statistics

[Raven]

Not sure if this is good news or bad. We don't have the high grade turbines but we might get some money back on what we paid for them. Not good for WTL whatever the outcome.

NWF
11/08/2009
GENERAL

REL: 1407 HRS NZ Windfarms Limited

GENERAL: NWF: NWF - IEC CERTIFICATION

NZX Announcement

11 August 2009

For immediate release

IEC CERTIFICATION

NZ Windfarms Limited ("NWF") is over half way through the installation of the
97 Windflow WF500 turbines ordered from Windflow Technology Limited ("WTL")
for the Te Rere Hau project.

When selecting the Windflow WF500 turbines for use at Te Rere Hau, NWF
required that WTL agree to seek Class 1A Design Certification of the WF500
turbine in accordance with the International Electrotechnical Committee
Standard WT-01:2003 ("IEC Class 1A Certification"). NWF has placed orders
with WTL for 97 turbines in reliance on positive progress reports from WTL on
the certification process.

WTL has advised that the turbines supplied to date and yet to be supplied to
NWF for use at Te Rere Hau will not meet IEC Class 1A Certification standard.

NWF is now seeking expert advice to determine how material the difference
between the turbines supplied is from turbines that would gain IEC
certification. NWF is also reserving its position in regard to what
mitigation or remediation it will seek from WTL.

NWF's objective is to be satisfied that turbines supplied by WTL will be fit
for purpose on the Te Rere Hau site.

For further information contact:

Steve Cross
Chief Executive Officer
(03) 943 5410
End CA:00183358 For:NWF Type:GENERAL Time:2009-08-11:14:07:37

[Grimy]

Have just been in PN for 4 days (Friday~Monday). Like my last visit I hardly saw a blade turn the whole time. Beautiful weather. Blue sky and not a breath of wind. Not the PN I grew up in and know!!
Shareholders certainly didn't get any return over that period.
Interestingly, the larger Vestas turbines seemed to be turning a bit more, but neither they, or our turbines were doing much.

[Footsie]

how much further could this fall?

[Footsie]

anyone else confused by that result?