NWF - NZ Windfarms

[JAYAY]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK141...ing-issues.htm

So there we are. I don't see how the Environment Court can do anything other than endorse the High Court/COA decision.

[BlackPeter]

Meridians latest operations report is out. Clearly a different company, but as wind generator (next to other things) operating in the same market and conditions.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/206762.pdf

What I found interesting are slide 6, showing that they (Meridian) received in the 6 months to Dec 2014 significantly higher prices than in the comparable period in the year before (up 61.7%) and that the overall amount of NZ wind generated electricity did rise in the same period from 660 to 739 GWh (i.e. by roughly 12% - slide 8).

Sounds all good - maybe this is the reason for NWF getting a bit stronger this year?

Discl: holding ... and obviously interested in winning the stock picking competition

[BlackPeter]

Somehow I had this funny feeling ...

Operational data for the first half of this year are out ... revenue (for first 6 months) up 53.4%, average electricity price up 42%, improved turbine availability - all good . I think this will blow the SP out of the water

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/206783.pdf

[noodles]

Meridians latest operations report is out. Clearly a different company, but as wind generator (next to other things) operating in the same market and conditions.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/206762.pdf

What I found interesting are slide 6, showing that they (Meridian) received in the 6 months to Dec 2014 significantly higher prices than in the comparable period in the year before (up 61.7%) and that the overall amount of NZ wind generated electricity did rise in the same period from 660 to 739 GWh (i.e. by roughly 12% - slide 8).

Sounds all good - maybe this is the reason for NWF getting a bit stronger this year?

Discl: holding ... and obviously interested in winning the stock picking competition

What a fantastic post. NWF up 15%. Nice work!

[Jantar]

The increase in earnings for the first six months of the current financial year is more than the total loss for the full year last financial year. Could NWF even declare a small profit this year?

[Bobcat.]

It depends on the weather...as well as the amount of maintenance under way on lower cost generators, both of which impact the spot price and thereby NWF's revenue and profit.

Re the spot price, buying power each month on market through https://secure.powershop.co.nz/ gives me a good prompt re NWF's share price movements.

Discl: holding with a target of around 12cps (provided they resolve their court case with PNCC, otherwise unlikely to rise above 9cps IMO). NTA (for what it's worth) is about 15cps.

[Jantar]

It depends on the weather...as well as the amount of maintenance under way on lower cost generators, both of which impact the spot price and thereby NWF's revenue and profit.

Re the spot price, buying power each month on market through https://secure.powershop.co.nz/ gives me a good prompt re NWF's share price movements.

Discl: holding with a target of around 12cps (provided they resolve their court case with PNCC, otherwise unlikely to rise above 9cps IMO). NTA (for what it's worth) is about 15cps.

Weather - New Zealand is currently being affected by both an El-Nino, and a positive Southern Annular Mode, so expect it to remain dry in the east, but with regular top-up rainfall into the southern lakes. Sothern storage is likely to remain below normal. Waikaremoano (GNE) and Taupo (MRP) inflows are likely to remain below normal. Winds are likely to remain strong from the west.

Maintenance - According to Transpowers POCP data shows that at least one of CEN's large CCGT's will remain out of service until very late in the financial year.

So no power shortages, but sustained higher prices until late autumn.

Discl: Holding a very small number of shares.

[BlackPeter]

interesting article (though old ...). If the story still holds, than you wonder why NWF and the Palmerston North City Council haven't been able to accommodate the early morning noise problems of one (1!) resident. Buying his house (at a reasonable price), reducing power generation in the early morning hours (when power is cheap anyway), or - as you say, helping to soundproof his house ... everything would have been cheaper than the long and for everybody costly legal battle.

[Jantar]

......
The generation with the lowest marginal cost is hydro, wind and geothermal. I understand most windfarms cost around $20 MWh vs $60 MWh for TRH but TRH is still cheaper than the combined cycle gas turbine that Jantar notes Contact Energy has in preservation next year. Chris Sadler's speculation on power prices that you refer to Bobcat are inappropriate for a CEO and in error, you don't need to take a CCGT off for maintenance for most of a year - they can be available 90% of the time. He should know this given his involvement with TCC but then again he never managed to get it running.
.......

You are quite correct about cost of generation. I think what Bobcat was referring to was they way that the New Zealand Electricty Market (NZEM) works and the way wind generation must be offered into the NZEM. All wind generation is offered at $0.01, and as such it becomes a price taker. Wind (like all other low price offered generation) gets paid the nodal price. All generators offer their generation into the market in 48 half hour trading periods per day, and at up to 5 price tranches. Themal generators offer by unit, and hydro (and wind) offer by node. Typically run-of-river hydro and minimum load on thermal units is offered at a very low price; the amount of energy a company needs to generate to cover its retail and cfd book is offered at a low price and the remainder is offered in tranches at or above the short run marginal price. All of these energy offers are combined into a stack, and the final price is determined at the point where the actual demand meets the offered generation. The generator offered at this price is the marginal generator.

If any generation in that stack, that would normally be less than the discovered price, is removed then higher priced generation will be dispatched and the nodal price will increase. Thus, when referring to lower cost generation he wasn't refering to lower cost than wind, but rather, lower cost than the marginal generator.

Discl: I am an electricty trader, but won't say which company I'm with.

Edit: Should have added that I concur with PSE about NWF management. It has a potential well above what is currently being realised.

[JAYAY]

Edit: Should have added that I concur with PSE about NWF management. It has a potential well above what is currently being realised.

Jantar, you and PSE obviously know stuff that I don't.
However my impression is that the management have been hamstrung by PNCC litigation and have put considerable effort into resolving the issues. They have had to tread carefully and play it as diplomatically as possible. You may be being unfair to them.
Can you please elaborate on the "potential well above what is currently being realised".