NWF - NZ Windfarms

[Jantar]

Looks more like a SW Glitch. Check again ... production now seems to be back to normal

Looking at the generation graph on EM6 it appears to be a planned shutdown, but no such shutdown was announced to the electricity market. And on such a windy day, with high forecast prices, it would have to be the worst possible day for a planned shutdown of the whole farm.

[Hectorplains]

http://www.upworthy.com/try-not-to-j...-wind-turbines

Not strictly on topic, but is this the next generation of wind generators?

[JAYAY]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NWF/announcements/282593

No special general meeting. Well there's a cost saving.

[BlackPeter]

interesting ... the board realised that they are lacking skills (I certainly agree with that ....) and they found that they are currently wanting in the following areas:

- they need to add an commercial Engineer preferably with wind or rotating plant experience
- they need a candidate with experience in corporate governance
- they need a candidate with extensive commercial experience
- and they realise that they lack independence (given that the majority of them sits one way or another on the Vector gravy train)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237445.pdf

Just wondering - if they find this amazing "super board member" - what are the other three board members needed for (other than warming the remaining board chairs ...)?

Discl: hold (probably too many ...)

[blackcap]

interesting ... the board realised that they are lacking skills (I certainly agree with that ....) and they found that they are currently wanting in the following areas:

- they need to add an commercial Engineer preferably with wind or rotating plant experience
- they need a candidate with experience in corporate governance
- they need a candidate with extensive commercial experience
- and they realise that they lack independence (given that the majority of them sits one way or another on the Vector gravy train)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237445.pdf

Just wondering - if they find this amazing "super board member" - what are the other three board members needed for (other than warming the remaining board chairs ...)?

Discl: hold (probably too many ...)

Are they not seeking one more member to replace Dr Julian Elder (the current chairman) who is resigning effective 15 June?
https://nzx.com/companies/NWF/announcements/283984

[Joshuatree]

I'm watching the electricty market on a quiet saturday night, and can see one of NWF's problems very clearly.

MELCA are generating 1451 MW of which 62 MW is from wind, but all from the coastal wind farms near Wellington.
CEN are generating 888 MW of which 82 is from a GT peaking unit.
GNE are generating 835 MW, of which 605 MW are from Huntly. 1 coal unit and their CCGT.
MRP are generating 720 MW of which 45 is from Southdown.
TPW are generating 85 MW, but none from wind.
NWF is not generating a single MW.

The wholesale price at Bunnythorpe is $104, and windfarms in general are earning almost nothing.

Because of the way the market is structured, when the wind blows, wholesale prices are low. When the wind doesn't blow wholesale prices are high. NWF management needs to learn how to take advantage of these situations, rather than suffer when wind generation is low.

Any chance of an update Jantar? Warm weather and good lake inflows can't be helping NWF

[Jantar]

I'm watching the electricty market on a quiet saturday night, and can see one of NWF's problems very clearly.

MELCA are generating 1451 MW of which 62 MW is from wind, but all from the coastal wind farms near Wellington.
CEN are generating 888 MW of which 82 is from a GT peaking unit.
GNE are generating 835 MW, of which 605 MW are from Huntly. 1 coal unit and their CCGT.
MRP are generating 720 MW of which 45 is from Southdown.
TPW are generating 85 MW, but none from wind.
NWF is not generating a single MW.

The wholesale price at Bunnythorpe is $104, and windfarms in general are earning almost nothing.

Because of the way the market is structured, when the wind blows, wholesale prices are low. When the wind doesn't blow wholesale prices are high. NWF management needs to learn how to take advantage of these situations, rather than suffer when wind generation is low.

Any chance of an update Jantar? Warm weather and good lake inflows can't be helping NWF

OK, It is now right on the morning peak, on a warm winter day.

MEL are generating 1878 MW of which 135 MW is from wind, mainly from the Waiarapa.
CEN are generating 1270 MW of which 169 is from GT peaking units.
GNE are generating 949 MW, of which 400 MW are from Huntly. 1 coal unit and their CCGT.
MRP are generating 989 MW of which 429 is from geothermal.
TPW are generating 304 MW, of which 118 MW is estimated from wind.
NWF is generating 18 MW.

The wholesale price at Bunnythorpe is only $32, and windfarms in general are generating 271 MW, but not earning very much.

Overnight the wind was stronger and the windfarms were generating more, but the whole sale price was only a few cents, not even $1 per MW.

[BlackPeter]

OK, It is now right on the morning peak, on a warm winter day.

MEL are generating 1878 MW of which 135 MW is from wind, mainly from the Waiarapa.
CEN are generating 1270 MW of which 169 is from GT peaking units.
GNE are generating 949 MW, of which 400 MW are from Huntly. 1 coal unit and their CCGT.
MRP are generating 989 MW of which 429 is from geothermal.
TPW are generating 304 MW, of which 118 MW is estimated from wind.
NWF is generating 18 MW.

The wholesale price at Bunnythorpe is only $32, and windfarms in general are generating 271 MW, but not earning very much.

Overnight the wind was stronger and the windfarms were generating more, but the whole sale price was only a few cents, not even $1 per MW.

cheers Jantar.

Here is the link to NWF's production data and power price, if people want to check for themselves:
http://203.114.161.10/trh.htm

Obviously - NWF is not a good short term investment (well, it was not for the last 10 years or so, but for the spike from 5 cent to 10 cents end of last year) and I doubt that watching this graph helps to make sensible investment decisions.

More important is in my view
* what we think the power prices will do over the next handful of years? Note: increasing temperatures mean lower power prices in winter and higher in summer - irrigation & A/C;
* whether the new board is any better than the old one? We still have some regulatory questions and a hostile relationship to some neighbours to resolve;
* whether they find a way out of the financial straitjacket (line lease) the old board chose to get into and
* whether they really managed to get the teething problems with the windflow turbines under control (just for completeness - I do have little concerns in this area) ... ah yes, and
* whether they manage to curb their bureaucratic overhead (a huge and expensive management team spread across NZ just to run a tiny Palmy North company) without loosing essential know how;

Lots of ifs ... but hey - at current you could buy 91 turbines, each with a retail value of (from memory) around $ 500k a pop for a lousy market cap of $27m. Thrown in are the concrete towers and the resource consents for free. Could be a bargain, if there wouldn't be all the if's ...

[Joshuatree]

Excellent thanks guys; fascinating stuff.
Yes there have been many issues with the turbines and gearboxes in the past; this design being pretty much a one off pet project ii think from memory.
A slight diversionary detail ; I've noticed a former poster on here talking happily about his early buy in to NZW on H/C recently.

[BlackPeter]

Excellent thanks guys; fascinating stuff.
Yes there have been many issues with the turbines and gearboxes in the past; this design being pretty much a one off pet project ii think from memory.
A slight diversionary detail ; I've noticed a former poster on here talking happily about his early buy in to NZW on H/C recently.

NZW? Do you mean NWF?