NWF - NZ Windfarms

[blackcap]

Been some solid turnover by NWF's standards the past week or so, someone accumulating perhaps?

Having a look from time to time at the top 100 shareholders (available from broker) can be illuminating. Here is a top 20 as at 20 Sept.

1 NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED 46241058 16.0524
2 ROBERT STONE 40300000 13.99
3 LET CAPITAL NO 1 LIMITED PARTNERSHIP 21002881 7.2911
4 PHILIP LENNON 16758000 5.8175
5 KERICREST PROPERTIES LIMITED 10844988 3.7648
6 HSU-CHENG YANG 10800000 3.7492
7 CAPITAL PROPERTY GROUP LIMITED 7596661 2.6371
8 BRUCE BLAKE 6024010 2.0912
9 HEARD PARK TRUSTEE LIMITED 4390339 1.5241
10 TALLEYS GROUP LIMITED 4087461 1.4189
11 TONY WHYMAN 3555000 1.2341
12 PO-HUI CHI 3100000 1.0762
13 ROTORUATRUST PERPETUAL CAPITAL FUND LIMITED 2656062 0.922
14 ANTHONY ANSELMI & ROSS ALLEMAN 2566667 0.891
15 CRAIG BOWLER 2059056 0.7148
16 IAN DOUGLAS & BASIL COOK 1962657 0.6813
17 DAVID CORMACK & PETER CORMACK & RENU CORMACK 1750000 0.6075
19 ANTHONY GLEDHILL 1622688 0.5633
18 CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED 1620263 0.5625
20 FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED 1423999 0.4943

[Well Endowed]

Checked against the top100 holders (dated 30/06/18). Looks like Heard Park Trustee Ltd has increased from 0.89% to 1.52% from what I can see, smaller changes across the rest with a number of the top20 there increasing their holdings slightly over the quarter.

[blackcap]

Checked against the top100 holders (dated 30/06/18). Looks like Heard Park Trustee Ltd has increased from 0.89% to 1.52% from what I can see, smaller changes across the rest with a number of the top20 there increasing their holdings slightly over the quarter.

Speaking of the devil:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324926

[Well Endowed]

Ha - looks like the sale route is the likely path, I still thought the likes of Mercury would be my odds on favourite given their interest in the area and wind power. definitely interesting times ahead.

[blackcap]

Ha - looks like the sale route is the likely path, I still thought the likes of Mercury would be my odds on favourite given their interest in the area and wind power. definitely interesting times ahead.

It all boils down to how much Mercury (or others) are willing to pay. If you go by the Tilt valuation of their NZ assets you are looking at about 17 cents for NWF but there are a lot of synergies available as well (like Board, CEO, admin staff, NZX compliance etc) that will ramp up the valuation. I would be hoping for at least 20 cents if I was a shareholder.

[Well Endowed]

agreed. I'd be pretty happy with an offer in the 18-20c region.

Will keep an eye on price action over the next while, I'd suspect some further accumulation given the potential upside vs current SP etc.

[blackcap]

agreed. I'd be pretty happy with an offer in the 18-20c region.

Will keep an eye on price action over the next while, I'd suspect some further accumulation given the potential upside vs current SP etc.

I think its an upside v downside play at the moment. With potentially good upside, and little downside. That is why I have been accumulating lately.

If a sale or other sort of rationalisation does not come off, then at worst you are probably looking at 11-15 cents per share in the medium to longer term.

[Well Endowed]

There has been some good buying the past couple weeks...

[Lorne Ranger]

Given there is the possibility of an el nino wind pattern this summer, how does this affect turbine operation? on first thought it seems a good thing, more wind=more power, but I assume also there is a cut off point where the turbines have to be shut down? Has there been any discussion here or indication from management about this issue yet?

[blackcap]

Given there is the possibility of an el nino wind pattern this summer, how does this affect turbine operation? on first thought it seems a good thing, more wind=more power, but I assume also there is a cut off point where the turbines have to be shut down? Has there been any discussion here or indication from management about this issue yet?

They discussed this quite a bit at the AGM. They operate when it is profitable to do so. So depending on the marginal cost of turning the turbines, they weigh that up against the wholesale price. In some conditions it is not worth running the turbines even with good spot prices but in other conditions, ie smooth north west winds you can run them whenever. It is not so much how hard the wind blows but from which quarter and the turbulence of the blow. That is what I surmised anyway. But there is a whole heap of info in the AGM slides. They have been released to market.