I doubt there would be brokers following NWF with its small market cap. So not sure what today's action is all about but could be a thought of a TA in the making or someone wants them as an add on... (just purely speculation at this point, its not the wind that is doing this action as there is no wind the last 2 weeks) http://203.114.161.10/trh.htm
Hi
The last 3 odd days haven't had wind but over the past two weeks it isn't true to say there was no wind. There was wind at certain points. You can see this from the NZX daily report which breaks down generation. Gives a guide as to how wind is going generally.
The last 3 odd days haven't had wind but over the past two weeks it isn't true to say there was no wind. There was wind at certain points. You can see this from the NZX daily report which breaks down generation. Gives a guide as to how wind is going generally.
Thanks Dassets, that makes sense. I just track the total GW on a weekly basis and my "no wind" sort of meant "not much wind". The last 3 weeks odd have had by my calcs about 1GW per week, which is under the average of 2.5GW per week. But like all things weather this will by cyclical and the month of January may generate 4GW weeks for all I know. Not concerned at all actually and good to see the solid prices for energy in the futures markets. http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/fu...EA&type=FUTURE
The price that NWF receive for their power is more important than the output generated as far as total revenue goes.
I also see the snow pack that meridian report is pretty much gone and at all time lows, under minimums which may pose a problem for the hydro generators going forward? https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/abo...s/snow-storage
The last 3 odd days haven't had wind but over the past two weeks it isn't true to say there was no wind. There was wind at certain points. You can see this from the NZX daily report which breaks down generation. Gives a guide as to how wind is going generally.
Hi Dassets, I have searched the NZX web site but for the life of me I can not find the NZX daily report you referred to. Can you please provide the link. Thanks.
Transpower shut off the circuit that affected all the Tararua farms for 5 days for heavy maintenance before Xmas. I understand a 1 in 15 year requirement or maybe more. So the numbers are skewed by that outage. What is interesting is the level of thermal generation going on. it is huge especially compared with past years. It looks like the hydro guys are really conserving water and using (expensive) thermal.
As at 1 Jan Meridian had 48Gwh of snow pack vs mean of 793 for this time of the year. The melt can eat into permanent snow btw. Previous 30 year low was 147Gwh. One reason why the ASX NZ futures are where they are at.
You have to send an email to NZX to get the daily gen report and hydro report. There is some (free) subscription email address somewhere on the NZX site. They then email it to you.
I have done some rough numbers on current hydro storage and it looks like we are sleep walking to a security of supply emergency around May/June. Given the snow melt is already now negative 48Gwh(yes that is right) and we will not get circa 700 Gwh or putting it a different way it is already in the tanks, assume average rainfall profile we get to the 10% line in May/June. Wholesale prices will go bananas. Thermal is already pumping away to try to preserve storage but they will be building up maintenance issues. Even so they have only maintained storage around 81% of average even with gas/coal going for it. If they need to go out before winter then we have a perfect storm possibility. I can see prices at $400-$500 per Mwh reasonably easily.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by percy
Bookmarks