NWF - NZ Windfarms

[Dassets]

Turbines have a curtailment program where price is a key component. If price is high then turbines are curtailed less in turbulent conditions. Mainly southerlies

[Arthur]

Maybe my calculations are wrong, but with the current prices I guess they will have made about $1 million in revenue over the last week. If the prices and wind keep up, it will be a great quarter.

[Well Endowed]

Shaping up that way, the shareprice has held up well (even before the surge in spot prices), I still suspect someone is slowly accumulating, as the turnover in the past month or two has been considerably higher than usual.

[Poet]

Maybe my calculations are wrong, but with the current prices I guess they will have made about $1 million in revenue over the last week. If the prices and wind keep up, it will be a great quarter.

They will certainly be making more than they have been over the last couple of years, but don't forget that they have at least some (maybe 30%??) of their production capacity hedged on the futures market (via CFDs probably) - this will moderate the revenue gains in this high priced environment.

[blackcap]

Maybe my calculations are wrong, but with the current prices I guess they will have made about $1 million in revenue over the last week. If the prices and wind keep up, it will be a great quarter.

I concur. If the wind and price remains today NWF will be making over $250,000 per 24 hour period. Over a week that is a heck of a lot.

As for hedging, I think they hedge about a quarter of future production, page 42 or thereabouts in the annual report states that as at 30 June the company had 149 quarterly sales contracts from Q4 2018 to Q3 2019.

Could be a very good quarterly come December. (if the wind keeps up)

[Well Endowed]

good turbine availability, mean wind speed steady above the lower curtailment levels. hopefully a few more days like this

http://203.114.161.10/trh.htm

[blackcap]

They will certainly be making more than they have been over the last couple of years, but don't forget that they have at least some (maybe 30%??) of their production capacity hedged on the futures market (via CFDs probably) - this will moderate the revenue gains in this high priced environment.

I think they buy electricity futures contracts on the Aussie market.... page 42 of the annual report "they are openly traded on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). But they also trade with gentailers "The company also trades in contracts for difference with gentailers, and these are typically traded as over the counter instruments.

https://www.asx.com.au/products/ener...lectricity.htm

some interesting prices looking forward the next quarter too....

[blackcap]

Still looking good this morning. Pumping out 35MW reasonably consistently and the price is in the $400's at the moment. If that could go on for 24 hours we would have $336,000 for the 24 hour period. That said night prices and afternoon prices are lower. But a couple of months of highish prices and some ok wind and NWF could have a very good year. If we say an average of $300 for October and $300 for November as per futures market https://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/f...ED&type=FUTURE

and average wind of about 10GB per month then in the 2 months we could produce $6m of revenue. Temper that a bit with a quarter of that being hedged at say $70? That would give us an average price of $300*.75 + 70*.25 or $242.50. So 20 GB at $242.50 is revenue of $4.85m. Am I being too optimistic here?

[Jerry]

I shall be bloody pippy if they do sell out. One buys a stock with an eye to the future, there follow years of no dividends and nail-biting as they stagger along then as soon as things smooth out and there is a prospect of good divs, they get sold out from under.

Speaking of the devil:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324926

[Well Endowed]

$124k worth changed hands today, bid/offer creeping up higher. looking good